Last updated on: September 16, 2020
Atlantic Temperature Differentials:
Gulf Stream Flow
Polar Ice Melt Status:
Arctic Air Temperatures:
Antarctic and Greenland Melt:

Violent Weather Probability:
North America:
High
South America:
Extreme
Europe:
High
Australia:
High

The planetary climate regime has become chaotic and will remain in this state until a new climate regime stabilizes at some point in the future. The new climate regime will be far warmer than the current one. At the same time, a generalized decline in human population and activity will reduce greenhouse gas emissions, which will cause a return to colder conditions.

During the chaotic period, extreme weather events will become the norm. While most tropical storms will not reach extreme levels of intensity due to warming of the stratosphere, when cloud tops do circulate into the colder regions, storm intensities will grow suddenly and dramatically. Hurricanes that reach maximum sustained wind velocities above 180 miles per hour are possible. Fires will become generalized in drought affected areas such as Siberia, the US West, Australia and the Amazon Basin. This, combined with continued high level of greenhouse gas emissions as a result of human activity will stress the atmosphere’s ability to regenerate and the rate of decline of oxygen content will continue to increase.

Drought conditions will also spread to Europe at times, and there will be more and more frequent period of catastrophic drought on the European continent. Increasing air temperatures will disturb water vapor uptakes, resulting in shifts between drought and flooding in many areas. The wheat growing regions of Southern Russia and the Ukraine are particularly vulnerable to catastrophic drought because of their distance from the cooler regions to the north where their rains are generated. This is less true of the North American grain belt, but drought from the west could spread there also.

In the Southern Hemisphere, the declining strength of ocean currents and increasing heat mean reduced moisture levels in the air over land masses, with subsequent drought conditions becoming potentially catastrophic. In the Northern Hemisphere, drought in the higher latitudes where warming effects are much more pronounced are going to lead to further extension of wildfires during the summer season. Heating of the northern ocean is beginning to lead to release of methane hydrates from the sea floor. This has the potential to increase the intensity of atmospheric heating dramatically.

Like Greenland, the Antarctic glaciation is now under severe pressure, with the Thwaites Glacier most likely to express into the open ocean at some near-future point.

Planet Earth is experiencing a climate emergency. Unfortunately leadership in the United States, Russia, Australia and India, the four largest countries in terms of carbon dioxide emissions, has failed to address the problem. This is also true in most of Asia, South America, the Middle East and some parts of Europe.

READING THE CLIMATE WATCH INDEX: The index checks ice, sea water warmth and current flow, and weather conditions at key points in the arctic. In general, abnormally high arctic temperatures and low Gulf Stream flow in the winter will mean that the jet stream will be looping far north and south, causing violent weather in the middle latitudes. Extreme summer heat in the arctic will result in more heat further south, and a radical temperature differential between north and south will bring heavy weather across continental areas of Europe and North America. But weather and climate are very complex, and these are never more than probabilities. Overall, the superstorm index remains unchanged, as recent scientific studies have served as confirming evidence.