It has just been revealed that on January 13, astronomers
came within a few minutes of telling the world that an
asteroid was about to impact the Earth. Asteroid expert Clark
Chapman says it was a "nine-hour crisis." It was an amateur
astronomer who finally figured out it wasn't going to hit us.
David Whitehouse writes in bbcnews.com that some
astronomers believed that asteroid 2004 AS1 had a one-in-
four chance of hitting the Earth on January 14 or 15. At less
than a mile wide, it was not big enough to cause a major
extinction event, but it would have caused widespread local
damage wherever it landed. Scientists knew it would hit the
Northern Hemisphere, but had no idea exactly where. They
were about to alert President Bush when they discovered the
asteroid would pass us by. If it had been about to impact,
scientists would have begun bouncing radar signals off it in
order to predict where it would land. Since according to
statistical odds, it would be most likely to land in the ocean,
the biggest danger would have been if it had exploded in the
atmosphere, blocking out sunlight and causing a "nuclear
winter."
Chapman reveals that the asteroid was first spotted by twin
optical telescopes in New Mexico, which sent details to the
Minor Planet Center in Massachusetts. The MPC posted the
details on the internet and asked other astronomers to take a
look at the asteroid. It was expected to grow 40 times
brighter the next day, which is a sign an asteroid is getting
closer very quickly. But the object had only been observed
four times and astronomers hadn?t identified its orbit. The
question was: should they warn the world or keep quiet until
they were sure? "They completely misread the situation,"
says astronomer Benny Peiser. "There was plenty of time to
get other observers on the job."
NASA's Steven Chesley sent out an e-mail saying the asteroid
had a 25% chance of striking the Earth in a few days. This
was when Clark Chapman and David Morrison, of the
International Astronomical Union's Working Group on Near
Earth Objects, considered making an early morning call to the
White House. Brian Marsden, of the Minor Planet Center,
says, "That would have jumped the gun before we knew
much about the object. I find it incredible that such action
was contemplated on the basis of just four observations.
That is just not enough to yield a sensible orbit. There was
no need to panic as it was obvious that the situation would
have been resolved, one way or another, in another hour or
two."
It was an amateur astronomer who saved the day. After
receiving the Chesley e-mail, he managed to take a picture of
the sky during a moment when the clouds had parted. If the
asteroid had been aiming for the Earth, it would have been in
the picture, but it wasn't, meaning it wasn't going to impact.
If the sky had stayed cloudy, however, there might have
been no choice but to raise the alarm. Marsden says, "If it
had been cloudy and the call had been made to the President
it would have been disastrous."
2004 AS1 eventually passed by at a distance of about 32
times the distance from the Earth to the Moon, so it turned
out to pose no danger to life on Earth.
If the government keeps asteroid information secret from the
public, what aren't they telling us about
UFOs?
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