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Only 4 Years Left?

One of the world's leading ice experts has predicted the final collapse of Arctic sea ice in summer months within four years. That's earlier than the Earth's predicted demise in December of 2012, but it could be a major cause of it.

In the September 17th edition of the Guardian, John Vidal quotes climatologist Peter Wadhams as calling it "a global disaster."

He says, "Climate change is no longer something we can aim to do something about in a few decades' time, and that we must not only urgently reduce CO2 emissions but must urgently examine other ways of slowing global warming, such as the various geoengineering ideas that have been put forward." These include burying carbon dioxide in the ocean, reflecting the sun's rays back into space, making clouds whiter and seeding the ocean with minerals to absorb more CO2, These include reflecting the sun's rays back into space, making clouds whiter and seeding the ocean with minerals to absorb more CO2.

Meanwhile, pollution is warming the atmosphere through summer thunderstorm clouds. How much the warming effect of these clouds offsets the cooling that other clouds provide is not yet clear.

Pollution strengthens thunderstorm clouds, causing their anvil-shaped tops to spread out high in the atmosphere and capture heat, especially at night.

Researcher Jiwen Fan says, "Global climate models don't see this effect because thunderstorm clouds simulated in those models do not include enough detail. The large amount of heat trapped by the pollution-enhanced clouds could potentially impact regional circulation and modify weather systems."

Clouds are one of the most poorly understood components of Earth's climate system. Called deep convective clouds, thunderstorm clouds reflect a lot of the sun's energy back into space, trap heat that rises from the surface, and return evaporated water back to the surface as rain, making them an important part of the climate cycle.

Inside a thunderstorm cloud, warm air rises in updrafts, pushing tiny aerosols from pollution or other particles upwards. Higher up, water vapor cools and condenses onto the aerosols to form droplets, building the cloud. At the same time, cold air falls, creating a convective cycle. Generally, the top of the cloud spreads out like an anvil. When it's not too windy, pollution leads to bigger clouds, since they tend to form around the tiny particles emitted from places like power plants, which is yet another reason to clear up our air.

The Guarian quotes Wadhams as saying, "As the sea ice retreats in summer the ocean warms up, and this warms the seabed too. The continental shelves of the Arctic are composed of offshore permafrost, frozen sediment left over from the last ice age. As the water warms the permafrost melts and releases huge quantities of trapped methane, a very powerful greenhouse gas so this will give a big boost to global warming."

In 1998, the Master of the Key burst into Whitley Strieber's hotel room and alerted him about the upcoming climate change which has now ARRIVED.

So what can we do about it at this late time? Not governments, because they're obviously too preoccupied with getting more - more wealth, more power, more control over the resources of our solar system - to concern themselves with people's welfare, but people. What can WE do? No point in raising alarms if there's nothing to be done, even now. We will not be able to prevent global warming, but surely we can do something to help slow it down while the more those with the knowledge, skills and will come up with ways to adapt to the coming changes and help more of humanity to survive.

James Lovelock had a last ditch plan to save the Earth through Carbon sequestration. But at this late date it's unlikely to be that effective. My guess is at best it can only save the Earth from becoming Venus number two. We are in for a rough 150 years or so...Eventually industrialized civilization will die, and unless some dramatic new technology becomes available, which seems unlikely, it's not likely to ever return. The governments around the world might as well be thought of as Dinosaurs, unable to evolve doomed to extinction.

Not impressed.

There's no end to the number of experts who've predicted disasters, and there's apparently no shortage of people who eat that stuff up. Some people are a little in love with death, doom, and destruction. I'm not.

What impresses me is a track record. Name three major predictions this guy has made which turned out true. Otherwise, I have to assume he's going to be genuinely mistaken, or he's doing this for money/prestige/a favor owed/attention.

A typical response and strategy from a conservative. No this isn't a court room in which you get to cross examine someone,as a means to devalue their views. Rather, name three anti predictions you yourself have made, that have come true, or the advanced degrees in atmospheric science you possess, scientific papers or studies you have authored, or the unique qualifications you possess to come to your conclusions. Let's weigh your evidence and experience against Mr. Lovelocks, or Ice Expert John Vidals.

Gerald Anderson,

I'm not a conservative, so your first sentence sort of invalidates the rest of your mean-spirited reaction. But it does indicate you are playing a game of political bigotry. Good start.

As for that "Rather, name three anti predictions…" remark you make, that's irrelevant. I'm not the one making the claim. Red herring, Gerald.

Your last couple of sentences were the old appeal-to-authority argument. You know, "These guys are smart and they have degrees, what degrees do you have?" Not impressive, Gerald Anderson, you lose points for that ploy.

And by the way, since you mentioned Lovelocks, thank you very much. He has now admitted to exaggerating the threat of climate change. Did you read that last month? He says others such as Al Gore have been doing the same. Look at this link, Gerald, that's your authority figure speaking.

Aside from that, you did fine, just fine. Once again, a track record of successful predictions and outcomes impresses me. If you aren't impressed by success, Gerald Anderson, fine.

Art Bell used to let "experts" make the most outlandish claims. He let Ed Dames predict essentially the end of the world through a virus in Africa or something. He let others make similar predictions. We're still here, and Art rarely held them accountable for their failed predictions. He gave those guys a free pass because their appearances were so popular. Anybody can make a prediction, so what?

Finally, Gerald, I never said the four-year forecast is wrong, I never said his prediction won't come true. I'm simply asking a reasonable question, what has he done before that makes him trustworthy and reliable here?

See you in four years, Gerald.

I see it's everyone else but you...Once again what are your qualficaions to discount Mr. Vidal, or James Lovelock - who has stated that carbon sequestration is our last chance?

Obviously, your uncomfortable with the truth because your full of sh*t...

if you don't like that tough.....We're talking about the end of the world here...I am not going head tripping with you...


Do you even read before you write?

Did you not see my last sentences? You know, the part about not saying
the four-year forecast is wrong? Did you just figure it was easier to
skip that and jump into the trash talk?

Why are you so hateful? Why are you so mean-spirited?
You could be happy, but you decided to be vulgar and personal.

If the world is really ending, Gerald, why not face it with a smile?

Because I'M not into self delusion.....being real is what makes me never responded to any of my did't have the guts...that's the only thing I want from you..

Gerald and Max,
You both seem to be too willing to go at each other. If my guess is correct, neither one of you 'know' any more about this subject than me, and seem to be arguing from a belief based on your respective understandings.
You both make excellent points, but the truth of the matter is essentially unaddressable and certainly not worth creating more division in the world.
Another guess I have is that you're both searching, with passion. You both care.
Why not meet in the middle instead of this senseless back and forth. Message boards are always full of this kind of crap and nothing ever gets resolved.
If you come to Unknown Country, you are likely searching hard for some way to wade through the garbage of onslaught known as daily life. It's a good thing and I welcome all who come earnestly, but don't get caught up in your 'beliefs'. Don't let the pernicious invader of false understanding rule your words.
"The map is not the territory." The menu is not the meal." "Communication is only possible between equals."
quotes from Robert Anton Wilson
Learn to laugh at the fact that you don't know and most other people, no matter how convinced of themselves, also do not.
With respect and joy to both of you.

No, Lyle...your thoughts are misguided best. Guessing is just no good enough. Neither is avoiding confrontation because your uncomfortable with it. I am not looking for resolution. I said what I said and I meant it. The truth is addressable, and understandable. Creating more divisions in the world really? Bargaining, with those who take advantage of your good intentions never works, and doesn't stop there. Our future on this planet has been clearly laid out for us. It long past time to understand, what's at stake here, and what lies have cost us.

Gerald, I'll state my point a different way.
So often I see message boards degrade into unproductive arguing.
It seems like caged dogs biting each other when what they really want is to be out of the very cage that confines them.
I have to say, I laughed out loud when I saw the main heading for the website you posted "We Must Act Now-Together".

I understand some of your frustration about message boards. Some of this is a result of paid corporate shills that spread disinformation, and create doubt to prevent the public from acting together. Yes sometimes the conversation resembles dogs barking at each other. However, I don't believe that justifies feeling hopeless. I have been on other boards where shills we're forced to identify themselves, due to a community wide effort to confront them, and to challenge their opinions, and further to deny them the use of some of their disinformation tactics, like ad hominem assaults on others. I firmly believe the situation is beyond urgent enough that people can no longer accept avoidance as a solution, just because it's easier. I prefer a Zen slap or two in the right place.

Do you mean giving or receiving the 'Zen slap'?

From my point of view it is ever so tiring to read things by those who still don't accept that facts of global warming. Who still despite all the evidence, that is available to them, including numerous scientific studies, validating it as fact, still attempt to twist things, and rationalize the facts to suit their own objectives.

The mind is quite capable of rationalizing anything, while reason itself, can disguise the most heinous crimes against humanity.

Rationality has never been a guarantee of sanity. Nor will it ever be. As madman, are quite capable of presenting themselves and fully sane.

Although it's more sophisticated that just plain name calling, it still boils down to the same thing. A belief that rationalization, can substitute for the truth.

No science is ever certain. All science is based on probabilities, therefore any scientific evidence can be questioned, whether it's the theory of evolution or global warming.

Further there is an asymmetric relationship between experience and truth.

For hundreds of years, mankind believed the earth to be the center of the universe, and every waking man hour of experience of the night sky supported that theory. Yet it only took one experience, that the earth was not the center of the universe to negate all those millions of man hours of observation that came before.

There, has never been any previous historical record of the ice caps on this planet melting as they are now. While it might be comforting to look back on past experience, we are in uncharted territory without the benefit of any historical guidance, or precedent.

With potential dire consequences for humanity, and all of us.

Doubts, are insufficient reason, not to act. Nor, is it necessary to convince everyone, of the absolute certainty of global warming.

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