NOAA has announced that warming is being observed over the Tropical Pacific, which could lead to an El Nino by early spring. The U.S. is not expected to see the impact until late summer, and they will last through the fall and into next winter.
NOAA cautions that it?s too early to predict the magnitude of the 2002 El Ni?o, or how long it will last. ?The magnitude of an El Ni?o determines the severity of its impacts,? says Vernon Kousky, NOAA climate specialist. ?At this point, it is too early to predict if this El Ni?o might develop along the same lines as the 1997-98 episode, or be weaker.?