The National Aeronautics and Space Administration has released their prediction that the El Niño cycle currently being experienced in the Pacific Ocean will have it’s greatest impact on the United States early in 2016.
The National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration has released their temperature data for the Pacific Ocean, confirming that the current El Niño is the hottest ever recorded. Unfortunately, this also may guarantee that the current cycle will result in a prolonged La Niña event in the later half of 2016.
The previous record-holding El Niño period was the week of November 26, 1997, where surface temperatures were recorded at 2.8°C. The new record, for the week ending November 09, 2015, hit an even 3.0°C above normal – over seven percent higher than the previous record. This will result in more severe weather patterns in the US southwest, and possible drought conditions in Australia and Indonesia.
The National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration has released their forecast for the upcoming 2015-2016 winter season, of which is expected to be strongly influenced by the current El Niño pattern in the Pacific.
NOAA is predicting that above-average temperatures will persist across the northern US and down the west coast, while temperatures across the southeast are expected to be below average.
The National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration have revised their forecast for the El Niño event that is currently underway, saying that the likelihood of it persisting through the winter is not only high, but that this event may rival the record-breaking El Niño seen in 1997. They place a 90% chance of the event lasting into winter, and an 85% chance of it lasting through into next spring.