As Russia prepares an all-out effort to capture the Ukrainian capital of Kyiv, Germany, EU and the US prepare to cut critical Russian banks off from the SWIFT financial transfer system. This will result in the collapse of the Russian banking system and its bourse, and hasten the complete collapse of the ruble, which has been in free-fall for days.

It will mean that Russian import-export abilities will grind to a halt, and that European nations will suffer a reduction, or a complete cessation, of imports of Russian natural gas and oil, and will be forced to rely on other resources.

Russia cannot survive long without a financial system, Europe cannot survive long without Russian energy, and the Middle East cannot survive long without wheat exports from Russian and Ukraine.

Exactly what is happening on the ground in Ukraine is unclear. While it does appear that Russia is making advances, should the current all-out effort to take Kyiv fail, it will be a serious military setback. Additionally, the ability of an army of less that 200,000 to control a hostile city of  nearly 3,000,000 has yet to be demonstrated.

The great danger of this conflict is that it includes a complex balance of powers similar to the world situation as it existed just prior to World War I, and a dictator who has been counting on a lack of will on the part of the West in the same way that Hitler did prior to World War II.

As the world has modernized, offensive warfare has become more and more difficult, as witnessed by what happened to the Germans when they attempted to solidify their victories after overrunning Europe in the 1940s, and what happened to the US in Vietnam, and to both Russia and the US in Afghanistan.

Possible future escalation could occur if cyberwarfare is employed by Russia to attempt to disrupt the West. This might place the US in the same position that France and Russia found themselves in when the Germans began mobilizing in July of 1914. Even as late as the middle of that month, it was still not apparent that a world war was inevitable. This is also the situation at the present time.

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  1. Whitley, I remember you mentioning that you believed the visitors would not allow a full scale nuclear exchange to occur on this planet. Do you think this is still the case? What about limited nuclear exchange?

  2. What is China’s role in this? Sooner or later they will become involved in this.

  3. Elon Musk has promised satellites to Ukraine via Skylink, so the war atrocities can be shown to the world.

    I think of the visitors, and their strong suggestions that they could stop the firing of nuclear warheads. Can they, really? Will they?

    As crude as this may sound, I wish they’d pick Putin up like they have so many others…carry him off from his bedroom at night, and like Travis Walton, deposit him, days later, naked, in downtown Kyiv. What, then, would he do, naked and alone in the midst of his hubris? Talk about accelerating disclosure, on their terms! This’d do it.

  4. Author

    It may be that Putin regards NATO’s support of Ukraine as an attack by NATO on Russia. That would explain his warning about the nuclear option. That and the fact that he is bogged down and his invasion is not going as well as he had expected, means that he may use that option. This is a very very dangerous time. It is the most dangerous time quite possibly in history.

    1. The current situation isn’t as dangerous as the Cuban Missile Crisis, however due to some miscalculation(s) it can become the most dangerous and could escalate to WW3. The perception of a weak U.S. President certainly isn’t helping.
      The Russians proved their capabilities in both the Chechnya and the Syrian theaters. Not only is Ukraine not a challenge, military experts acknowledge that the Russians forces can reach Berlin in about 4 days. The current slow progress of the Russians is due to Putin’s decision to avoid casualties and prevent decimation of Ukraine, among others (fake news not withstanding).
      I suggest a close look at what’s going on in the Far East:
      Lastly, I see this as the classic Problem Reaction Solution by the military industrial complex. Seems to be working:
      All of the above is my opinion, I could be wrong.

  5. I think Putin saw a strategic time: cyber attacks on the US, the Jan 6th insurrection , decommissioning of military bases in Europe and US withdrawal from Afghanistan. He is trying to reacquire lost lands. If you look at it, the WEST has only 50 flat miles to Moscow should there ever be an invasion- Russia needs that land buffer.
    The return of Pluto has really effected our western Democracy…

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