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How to Predict Hurricanes

There seem to be more destructive hurricanes every year. Atlantic hurricane activity gets stronger and weaker over a cycle of several decades, and we've been in the active part of that cycle for the last 15 years. Scientists now say they have found a way to forecast hurricanes in the Atlantic--not just for the upcoming year, but for several years in the future. Wired.com quotes climate researcher Doug Smith as saying, "This is the first time anyone has reported skill in predicting the number of hurricanes beyond the seasonal time scale." But climate researchers still don't know exactly what it is that's making hurricane activity more frequent, and they disagree about whether increases in the past were caused by greenhouses gases.

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