Using computer modeling, NASA has determined that the
devastating Dust Bowl in the American Southwest during the
1930s, which helped to set off the Great Depression, was
caused by some of the same forces that are driving global
warming today.
NASA's computer model shows that a combination of colder-
than-normal water in the tropical Pacific and warmer tropical
Atlantic temperatures combined to create the drought
conditions. This means that, despite improved farming
techniques, it could happen again. NASA's Siegfried Schubert
says, "We know the computer matches well with what's gone
on the past few decades, but we want to test it against
other well-documented events from the past, like the Dust
Bowl drought, to confirm it against real-world events."
The Dust Bowl hit Kansas, Colorado, Oklahoma, Texas and
New Mexico the hardest. "The 1930s drought was the major
climatic event in the nation's history," Schubert says. From
1931 through 1939, warm temperatures in the Atlantic
produced a "double-whammy for the people in the Plains
states. Just beginning to understand what occurred is really
critical to understanding future droughts and the links to
global climate change issues we're experiencing today.
"There is a persistent low-level jet stream that moves west
across the Gulf of Mexico that is almost always there. It
pumps water vapor from the tropics up into the center of the
country. But the model shows that jet stream weakened and
moved farther south than normal, and this made the drought
much worse in the summer and fall months.
"It's hard to say if another Dust Bowl-scale drought could
occur again in the near future, both because land use has
changed, but also because the average surface temperatures
in both the Atlantic and Pacific are higher than they have
ever been since we started keeping records."
Whether it will create a new dust bowl remains to be seen,
but scientists say that only a huge spring snow storm can
save the West from worst drought in 1,400 years. Henry
Brean writes that without more snow?a LOT more?this will
be the fifth straight year of below-average precipitation in
the Colorado River Basin.
"Historically, you would expect to have 100% of your snow
pack (for the year) by April 1," says Bob Walsh of the U.S.
Bureau of Reclamation. "It's not unusual to get additional
snowfall into April, but I don't think anybody anticipates a
large enough snowfall to significantly impact reservoir levels."
It doesn't just affect Colorado. Lake Mead, which provides
the Las Vegas Valley with about 90% of its water, is 40%
lower than normal. Water authority spokesman J.C. Davis
says, "It's going to be several years before we can begin to
recover from this. We're in this drought for a long time to
come."
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