Whitley's Journal

Something Wicked This Way Comes

We have reached the climate tipping point much more quickly than anybody anticipated. But with methane outgassing in arctic tundra and beginning to boil up from under the Arctic Ocean, Greenland ice turning black due to lack of snowfall, and rapid warming of northern waters, the stage is set.

Nobody has any idea when dramatic changes will overtake us, but the form they will likely take is becoming more clear. It is likely that, when arctic temperatures spike during some summer soon, the jet stream will fail because the temperature difference between the atmosphere in the far north and mid-latitudes will not be enough to enable it to continue.

Basically, that will mean that all cities in the northern hemisphere that are dependent on continental air circulation for ventilation will fail to get that ventilation. Most inland cities in Asia will be under immediate threat from pollution levels beyond anything ever seen before or imagined possible. In regions where there has already been an effort at pollution control, the danger will build more slowly.

This will only be a small part of a very complex process that is fraught with unknowns. If it happens before the current California drought breaks, the southern half of the state may become uninhabitable when ground water runs out. However, it is possible that this region will become susceptible to hurricanes as central Pacific waters continue to warm. Elsewhere in the United States, an entirely unpredictable cascade of events will unfold, that will likely include general drought punctuated by extreme storms. Europe will also become susceptible to weather of extreme local violence. In general, as the temperature of the stratosphere rises, the number and intensity of these storms will decline along with air circulation and a decline in the strength of all ocean currents.

Summer air temperatures will not be survivable in many circumstances, and worldwide climactic disturbance will lead to food shortages even in developed counties, with unrest, war and revolution as the inevitable result.

This is going to happen. From the early seventies until the present, there was insufficient leadership in the United States due to the false global warming debate that was developed by profiteers who wanted immediate financial returns without regard for the future. Without American leadership, world efforts to prevent this from happening were colossally insufficient. There has been no leadership whatsoever in Asia, and yet the growth of  Asian economies is the most prominent single reason that the change has accelerated so quickly.

Now that the methane release is under way, it is, quite simply, too late to reverse the process. We will experience a warming spike just like the ones that have climaxed other ice ages.

Unfortunately, the future has arrived earlier than anybody expected.




We're really going to hit it, aren't we. There always seems to be a science study that underestimates. Here's a news item from October 2013:

Starting in about a decade, Kingston, Jamaica, will probably be off-the-charts hot — permanently. Other places will soon follow. Singapore in 2028. Mexico City in 2031. Cairo in 2036. Phoenix and Honolulu in 2043.

And eventually the whole world in 2047.

A new study on global warming pinpoints the probable dates for when cities and ecosystems around the world will regularly experience hotter environments the likes of which they have never seen before.

And for dozens of cities, mostly in the tropics, those dates are a generation or less away.

"This paper is both innovative and sobering," said Oregon State University professor Jane Lubchenco, former head of the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration, who was not involved in the study.

To arrive at their projections, the researchers used weather observations, computer models and other data to calculate the point at which every year from then on will be warmer than the hottest year ever recorded over the last 150 years.

For example, the world as a whole had its hottest year on record in 2005. The new study, published Wednesday in the journal Nature, says that by the year 2047, every year that follows will probably be hotter than that record-setting scorcher.

Coldest years will soon be hotter than hottest year in past

Eventually, the coldest year in a particular city or region will be hotter than the hottest year in its past.

The study was led by Camilo Mora, a biological geographer at the University of Hawaii who completed his Ph.D. at the University of Windsor. He and his colleagues said they hope this new way of looking at climate change will spur governments to do something before it is too late.

"Now is the time to act," said another study co-author, Ryan Longman.

Mora and colleagues ran simulations from 39 different computer models and looked at hundreds of thousands of species, maps and data points to ask when places will have "an environment like we had never seen before."

Reducing emissions could push date back to 2069

The 2047 date for the whole world is based on continually increasing emissions of greenhouse gases from the burning of coal, oil and natural gases. If the world manages to reduce its emissions of carbon dioxide and other gases, that would be pushed to as late as 2069, according to Mora.

The coldest years in the future will soon be hotter than the hottest years of the past. That is expected to happen in subtropical areas, such as Bangladesh, sooner than in temperate areas. (REUTERS)

But for now, Mora said, the world is rushing toward the 2047 date.

"One can think of this year as a kind of threshold into a hot new world from which one never goes back," said Carnegie Institution climate scientist Chris Field, who was not part of the study. "This is really dramatic."

Mora forecasts that the unprecedented heat starts in 2020 with Manokwa, Indonesia. Then Kingston, Jamaica. Within the next two decades, 59 cities will be living in what is essentially a new climate, including Singapore, Havana, Kuala Lumpur and Mexico City.

By 2043, 147 cities — more than half of those studied — will have shifted to a hotter temperature regime that is beyond historical records.

The first U.S. cities to feel that would be Honolulu and Phoenix, followed by San Diego and Orlando, Florida. in 2046. New York and Washington will get new climates around 2047, with Los Angeles, Detroit, Houston, Chicago, Seattle, Austin and Dallas a bit later.

Mora calculated that the last of the 265 cities to move into their new climate will be Anchorage, Alaska — in 2071. There's a five-year margin of error on the estimates.

Unlike previous research, the study highlights the tropics more than the polar regions. In the tropics, temperatures don't vary much, so a small increase can have large effects on ecosystems, he said. A three-degree change is not much to polar regions but is dramatic in the tropics, which hold most of the Earth's biodiversity, he said.

Ocean acidity already crossed threshhold

The Mora team found that by one measurement — ocean acidity — Earth has already crossed the threshold into an entirely new regime. That happened in about 2008, with every year since then more acidic than the old record, according to study co-author Abby Frazier.

Of the species studied, coral reefs will be the first stuck in a new climate — around 2030 — and are most vulnerable to climate change, Mora said.

Judith Curry, a Georgia Institute of Technology climate scientist who often clashes with mainstream scientists, said she found Mora's approach to make more sense than the massive report that came out of the U.N.-sponsored Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change last month.

Pennsylvania State University climate scientist Michael Mann said the research "may actually be presenting an overly rosy scenario when it comes to how close we are to passing the threshold for dangerous climate impacts."

"By some measures, we are already there," he said.

Original Page: http://www.cbc.ca/news/technology/global-warming-to-scorch-past-mileston...

I think it is impossible for today's scientists to determine how much and in what way man's technology has influenced our environment. As a world, we dont even understand how planets work, and our knowledge of the how the sun works and solar/earth interaction, while impressive compared to recent history, is extremely incomplete.

I, personally, do not understand the carbon issue relating to global warming. It seems to me that increased smog, as such is being produced in China (and what we used to produce much more of here), would have a very similar effect as ash from a volcano. Perhaps there is an temporary heating effect, but then, as it circulates around the atmosphere, it blocks sunlight, and has a cooling effect within the atmosphere. Together with the aluminum supposedly being used to deflect sunlight (and thus lessen its warming effect -- I am not surprised there has been "global cooling" going on in concert w/ "global warming".

imo, the planet is warming and there is nothing we can do about it unless we are prepared to hurl ourselves into another ice age (better than blowing ourselves up, I guess . . . .) Doing that wld probably involve warfare and lots of stuff blowing up before the sun hurls a huge flare at us. It seems to me that we've been here before -- the saying "I'll see you when hell freezes over . . . " comes to mind.

I think Whitley has a very dire outlook -- tho, not an improbable one. Having said that -- imo, the larger changes taking place on the planet are within the life, particularly human life, that exist as an integral part of the planet. The solution to a sustainable world is not within science/technology, but within the heart of man. Curbing the amount of carbon and other particulates into the air is the right thing to do for a myriad of reasons (the main one being -- it kills life) -- its effect on the weather being only one.

To big to model and stick a date on. But it is coming and will force our evolution; we will either adapt or die or all move North.
If one had to guess where to run and hide, ( and this is pure speculation) I imagine it will be away from all major cities. Most are already heat traps in the summer, hotter by 3-5 degrees. The West, and Mid-West is toast. The South will be soup. The NE corridor will be to populous. Moving on into forested areas , perhaps Canada? Already I notice an almost 10 degree temperature drop going from the beach about 10 miles into a bog forest with hardwoods. Food will be trouble, like dustbowls past. Then again as WS pointed out in his book: The Coming Superstorm, we could get cold weather, akin to the ice fairs on the Thames in the 1600's. So what is the scenario? Super heat at first? Then Superstorms drawing down the ice cold stratosphere to freeze us like the wholly mammoth? I don't recall, but if it hits in the Spring we may make it , in the winter it will reflect back?

"Hotter, faster, worser" as someone (not me) put it, and as this recent article explains well:

http://robertscribbler.wordpress.com/2014/10/08/its-worse-than-we-though...

I am currently living in a micro-climate -- Berkeley, California, directly opposite the Golden Gate (I see the bridge from my window at Incarnation Monastery). The dominant pattern here is "foggy drought"; little precipitation, but the dryness and heat are mitigated by the oceanic climate just outside the Bay. Soon I shall be at New Camaldoli Hermitage, south of Big Sur, where the climate is similar, although perhaps a bit less foggy at the thousand-foot altitude from which the monks look out on the Pacific Ocean. So it is harder to say if these two micro-climates are much hotter than they used to be -- drought yes, though. As long as I stay in these two monastic cloisters, I may end my days without having to flee the weather. However, the threat of fires raging up and down the coast may exile us monastics to heaven-knows-what refuge. I would take this eventuality as a call to help others and as a ground for my meditation. Since there is now no technological remedy for what is destined to happen, an intense spiritual life is, I believe, a reasonable response, perhaps the only practicable one.

I agree, Thomas. If we cannot do much to prevent serious effects of climate change, there is still very much we can do to be better human beings, to be more compassionate to others, and live more in line with our deep spiritual impulses.

Whitley, it takes courage to tell bad news, but it must be told because what we are facing could be terrible indeed. But maybe that's what it will take for humanity to wake up and seriously rethink its values and priorities. I am re-reading A Course in Miracles (for that's what it will take to turn the tide - a miracle), and just before reading your article, I read:

"Tolerance for pain may be high, but it is not without limit. Eventually everyone begins to recognize, however dimly, that there must be a better way. As this recognition becomes more firmly established, it becomes a turning point. This ultimately reawakens spiritual vision . . "

Part of the cause of our present dilemma is our inability to see beyond our own borders, to recognise the suffering of millions of others around the planet whose land is already bereft of arable soil and water, who are already enduring hunger, thirst and disease that we rich countries could easily alleviate, whose coastal homes are already being regularly inundated and reclaimed by rising seas. Maybe we need to walk a long while in their shoes before we realise that we are, and always were in it together, and that our excesses were always adding to others' burdens. Even now, we worry about how OUR corner of this planet will be affected by climate change, how WE will survive and thrive, when what is required from us, I strongly believe, is that we concern ourselves with the wellbeing of all of humanity, of all living things, and the ever-giving planet that is our home. Maybe we will learn to never again pretend that our choices do not have consequences for others, and that those consequences will always inevitably return to us. Perhaps what can save us is not technology - or its absence - but the reawakening of our "spiritual vision". Maybe that is the miracle that we most need now.

Will we ever find the truth about ourselves?
It seems strange and pointless that we may not.

What of the Archons and Flyers? Why should we have ever been allowed to suffer their presence?

I see the climate situation as Whitley presents it as fairly solid...albeit I'm no expert and don't need to quote proof already so well presented in many Whitley writings, comments on them from other subscribers, and other unrelated sources.

I see the dangers of the political situation all over the globe. The cultural collapse that is bubbling up from so many directions. I feel I might explode inwardly and outwardly, any gotdang minute, hearing the news.

Rudely disruptive volcanoes, earthquakes, oceans expanding and contracting beyond the limits of our narrow expectations, cause so many to suffer, and then, when needs should be met, we turn to find the food bins and water jugs empty, with no real hope of having them filled with any consistency.

Why should any of this be suffered?
It all seems so pointless.

Then it gets fu'king hot beyond what's survivable?
All the watersheds become canyons empty of all water and the clouds with withhold relief?

No more wildness because balance has become inconceivable and thus impossible.

Why?

Absurdity upon absurdity from the god that laughs and plays?

I have seen such incredible beauty walking the woods above the Rockcastle River today.
That simple experience is enough, though I might add, I need it in large consistent doses to override the insanity of life.

Intense Beauty is enough.

...but will it over ride?

Will the Archon Flyers ever suffer our existence in return? Does the abuser need what it abuses to continue?

Will our prison guards be able to deal with our ability to forgive before all is ruined?

Questions. So many gotdang questions!

.

Not withstanding the insight this writer wishes to include in adding to what Whitley has written, it seems to me that James could retain some credibility, for what he wishes to impart, if he would only correct his grammar and more importantly...... his spelling before posting his comment! Wholly mammoth? What about woolly mammoth? But, having said that.....I get his drift! R.M.

A very large part of mankind lives in a fantasy world of delusion, and wishful thinking. It seems that only a very small percentage of the population, is even interested in knowing the truth.

Unfortunately, when some of the events foretold here, come to pass, they will be rationalized, with explanations that will be concocted to placate the public, so that their shopping is uninterrupted.

Ironically those that are willing and able to embrace reality, and take action will be the ones labeled, as out of touch with reality.

I expect that there will be severe problems with our weather quite quickly. These events will eventually become the norm, while more severe spikes in unstable weather and climate, will lead to huge losses of human life. For example, even a small Hurricane, in Los Angeles, would lead to incredible devastation and disruption.

Then there is Fukishima, realizing 300 tons of radioactive contamination into the Pacific every day.

http://cci-reanalyzer.org/DailySummary/output/T2_anom_satellite1.jpg

Take a look at the temperature anomaly map above. When it's 30F above normal in much of the Arctic Ocean, but 20F+ below normal in much of the central USA, you know something's a bit abnormal. Perhaps Prof. Jennifer Francis is correct and the melting of the summer arctic sea ice is causing the jet stream to behave more like a prop plane stream; resulting in these counterintuitive polar vortex incursions.

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