Americans have always assumed that first open contact will unfold in the United States. In fact, this has never been a very likely scenario, not from the time that the US military began shooting at UFOs back in the forties. Also, the US population is heavily armed and full of people whose ideologies and beliefs make them unpredictable.
The visitors can avoid attack reasonably effectively when they are prepared, but in a situation where they are attempting open face-to-face contact, they are vulnerable. Therefore, the first place that this contact might take place has to be chosen carefully.
Certainly, with the US military's long tradition of violence toward them, this country is an unlikely choice. It is possible that, in the late eighties, they experimented with carrying out first contact in Belgium, but the aggressive appearance of armed NATO fighters whenever they showed themselves seems to have caused them to back off.
Over the past few years, there has been an increasing amount of UFO activity in China, and now a Chinese observatory has reported that it observed an unknown object in the sky for 40 minutes during last July's eclipse.
This marks the longest observation ever by professional astronomers--at least, the longest one that has ever been publicly admitted. Because of the extent of resistance in the scientific culture of the west, it is unlikely that any western telescope would dare to admit such an observation.
Recently, the amount of UFO activity in China has been very high, and so far the Chinese government has not reacted in a hostile manner, nor has the local scientific culture rejected the phenomenon with the same energy that western science has rejected it.
This makes a fruitful ground for possible first contact. What is needed are three things: 1. A government that is neutral or open to the possibility; 2. A population that is unwilling and/or unable to react violently; 3. A scientific establishment that is not too arrogant to take advantage of the knowledge on offer.
Unfortunately, none of these three conditions are present in the US, and the western countries where they are present, such as France, which fulfills the first two criteria but not the third, are physically too close to American airbases to guarantee safety.
Other countries, like Mexico, where all three criteria are fulfilled, do not have a robust enough scientific infrastructure to take advantage of what will be an extraordinary leap ahead in scientific knowledge.
The Chinese do posses such an infrastructure in the form of excellent laboratories and a highly organized and well educated scientific establishment. Therefore, they will hopefully be able to make some of the crucial, and very challenging connections that are going to be necessary to achieve even a basic understanding of the true potential that is on offer from the visitors.
Of course, if it does appear that contact may start to unfold in China, the US will certainly try to convince the Chinese government to respond militarily, and the western media will be enlisted to try to make the Chinese look like fools. In Chinese culture, loss of face is a sensitive matter, and this approach to derailing contact may be effective.
If it is not, however, and contact does unfold, China will experience a tremendous leap ahead technologically, that will make it a nation without parallel in the world, far more important to the human future than any country has ever been before.
Our visitors are well aware of the situation we are in, that we have used up our planet's resources and will experience a dramatic dieback of our species if we do not receive outside help and encouragement. They are also aware that environmental and social decline go hand in hand, and know that there will come a time in the not too distant future that no human society will be organized enough to sustain the shock of contact.
So it is possible that they will overcome their various objections and take the risk now. But it will most likely be with China, not the United States, if it happens.
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