I am not a prophet. I have no crystal ball. But that doesn't mean that I can't look into the future and see probabilities, so I'd like to make some predictions that I hope will prove accurate and useful.
World economic growth will be impeded by increasing commodity and fuel prices. This is because there are not enough resources to sustain expansion in both the east and the west at the same time. Either eastern or western economies can grow, but not all at the same time. The greater likelihood in 2011 is that eastern economies will experience a cyclical slowdown, but this may not be enough to reduce commodity prices, especially if bad weather continues to affect food harvests worldwide.
If the human economy is going to continue to grow, we are in urgent need of extraordinary innovation in almost every area. We need more efficient energy resources, better agircultural management, a more certain understanding of climate, and better methods of propulsion. In fact, to continue from this point with the growth model, everything depends on innovation. Resource management, no matter how efficient, can no longer be enough.
2010 was an extraordinarily violent year, marked by ferocious weather extremes that resulted in reduced food supplies worldwide, as harvests in almost every country were affected by bad weather. Due to a record-breaking heat wave, Russia was forced to curtail grain exports. This led directly to unrest in the middle east, as food prices there rose dramatically. So far, this has resulted in the collapse of the Tunsian government, and it is possible that similar unrest could spread to Egypt and Syria.
What is happening to the world's climate is unprecedented, and the Unknowncountry.com Climate Watch section, which will be posted before the end of January, will make an effort to keep up with the changes. It could be that we are in the early phases of sudden climate change. If that is true, then it will climax in 2012-2015, but the gravity of the situation will become undeniable in 2011.
Pakistan is likely to collapse into chaos in 2011, and the futility of the American presence there will become glaringly obvious. This is because Pakistan is a country divided against itself. It is not an American ally. Rather, it is allied with China, and it is the chief support of the Taliban in Afghanistan, and the reason that they continue to remain a coherent fighting force. The rising power of fundamentalist Muslims in Pakistan has come about as a result of the government's refusal to deal with the issue, and now it's too late.
India is going to face a situation where the Pakistani nuclear arsenal will fall into the hands of Islamic radicals, and what they will do in response is anybody's guess. This is also a dangerous problem for the west, in that a radicalized Pakistan will almost certainly seek to export nuclear weapons and materials to terrorists.
There is a growing possibility that Islamic fundamentalists will detonate a nuclear weapon somewhere in the world in 2011, because now three countries, North Korea, Iran and Pakistan, all will have an interest in disrupting and damaging the west in this way.
As I pointed out in my novel Critical Mass, it is essential that the western democracies create effective decapitation plans, to insure their survival in the event to the total destruction of a capital. At present, a terrorist group, at a cost of no more than a few million dollars, could conceivably destroy Washington in an instant, throwing the United States and the world into a state of chaos from which there might be no recovery for generations.
All target countries, which include every western nation, need to have publicly known plans in place that outline how their governments would be recovered in the event of a catastrophe of this type.
My Personal Work.
Unknowncountry.com has always been a successful enterprise, in that it has been popular and has effectively delivered a unique blend of credible news at the edge of reality and informed speculation. Since the deployment of our new website, its popularity has increased dramatically. I am hoping that it will receive more financial support in the form of subscriptions and advertising over the coming year, as it becomes clearer and clearer that it is one of the few places that actually has an accurate grasp of the ways in which our world is changing.
I will publish three books in 2011. In April my novel Hybrids will be published, as will the revised version of the Key. In October, my young adult novel Melody is Burning will be released.
Hybrids is about human-alien hybrids, and what happens when they are placed under pressure and mankind has to face beings who are smarter and stronger than we are, and are also furious at us. It is a meditation, also, on artificial intelligence and what it might mean if a greater mind than ours begins to take a direct interest in our world.
The core material of the Key, the conversation with the Master of the Key, remains unchanged, but there has been an incredible amount of scientific corroboration for what he said since we published our edition of the book. There really cannot be any question, now, that he was a truly remarkable individual, and I detail in the new introduction and afterword just how even his seemingly improbable predictions have turned out to be based on solid science.
I am also beginning a process of publishing my older books that are out of print as electronic books. The first one is Transformation, to be followed by the Secret School and Breakthrough.
I have also finished the sequel to Communion that I have been working on since the early 1990s, and I hope to find a publisher for it this year. But we shall see. Most publishers hated Communion, and only two made offers on it. As it has become more obvious over the years that the visitors are in some way real, there has been a great hardening against them among intellectuals and scientists, who feel threatened by them. So I wonder if any publisher will want it, or even if my agent will be all that willing to present it. If not, I will publish it myself on Unknowncountry, the same way I did the Key.
While the amount of UFO activity has increased to completely unprecedented levels in the world in recent years, the number of close encounters being reported has dropped. It is as if, as we move closer and closer to whatever singularity awaits us, the visitors are withdrawing from direct interaction with us, while continuing to watch our society more and more closely.
As time passes, I become less sure about what they are than I have ever been. Also, it is very clear that--whatever they are--they come from an extremely complex society, one even more complex than our own. They can be sublime, but they can also be dangerous. They can be energizing and uplifting, but also almost psychotically cruel.
I do not believe that there will be offical disclosure about them, and I suspect that the hoped-for Wikileaks releases will either be inconsequential or actually throw cold water on the idea that they are real. But they are entirely real. What they are, though, and why they are here, remain open questions.