Climate Watch predicts fewer but more violent storms across the summer of 2017, with generally mild temperatures in the Northern Hemisphere. However, if circulation extends into the upper stratosphere where temperature differences are now unprecedented, storms will rapidly and suddenly increase in intensity. As long as arctic meltwater continues to pour into the northern oceans, hemispheric temperatures will be mild, but there will be spikes into very high heat conditions, with continental interiors at serious risk of temperature increases that are right at the edge of survivability for humans. Due to the slowing of the jet stream, when such conditions occur, they could linger for long periods of time.
The spring of 2017 saw significant arctic melt which flooded the North Pacific and North Atlantic with cool water and diluted salt content. The result of this will be a mild spring and summer in the Northern Hemisphere. There will be dangerous temperature spikes at time, with India and China especially vulnerable. While storm activity will be reduced, when storms do develop, they will characteristically become very violent if cloud tops reach into the upper stratosphere where the warm-to-cold temperature gradient is extreme.
When the arctic ice cover is gone and meltwater ceases to flow, an abrupt and permanent increase in air temperature will become the new climate regime for Planet Earth.
Climate Watch is one of the few consistently accurate sources of long term weather forecasting available to the public.