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Last updated on 05/15/2014

Northern Water Temperature:
Central Atlantic normal.

Gulf Stream Flow:
Gulf Stream flow weak.

Polar Ice Melt Status:
North: Somewhat Above Average.

Arctic Air Temperatures:
High for Season.

Greenland Ice Melt:
Ice unstable.

Solar activity:
Relatively quiet solar maximum.

Violent Weather Probability:

North America:

Colder than normal spring, violent spring and summer storms.

South America:
Warmer than usual summer.

Flooding likely in summer months.

The autumn of 2014 is likely to present dangerous weather extremes, especially in the central United States.

Glacial melt in both the arctic and antarctic has reached record levels, and a scientific team from the University of Stockholm has announced that methane is outgassing from collapsing hydrates beneath the Arctic Ocean. This could potentially cause very serious increases in temperature across the arctic and worldwide.

At the same time, solar output is causing global cooling while increasing levels of greenhouse gasses are making the atmosphere less able to release heat. This collision of opposites has created a difficult predictive environment. It does appear that unusual cooling could again take place across the US and Canada, as warmer temperatures in the high arctic force colder air southward.

The El Nino event predicted for the summer and fall of 2014 now appears to be milder than anticipated, while record temperatures in the eastern Pacific will prolong the drought afflicting the US west coast. This drought is likely to extend eastward over the next six months.

READING THE CLIMATE WATCH INDEX: The index is oriented toward the Northern Hemisphere. It checks ice, sea water warmth and current flow, and weather conditions at key points in the arctic. There is also a reading of solar activity, as there is some indication of a relationship between solar storms and weather changes on earth. In general, abnormally high arctic temperatures and low Gulf Stream flow in the winter will mean that the jet stream will be looping far north and south, causing violent weather in the middle latitudes. Extreme summer heat in the arctic will result in more heat further south, and a radical temperature differential between north and south will bring heavy weather across continental areas of Europe and North America. But weather and climate are very complex, and these are never more than probabilities. Movement of the jet stream into the high arctic due to abnormally warm North Atlantic water temperatures during the September--April period indicates probable violent weather in Europe and eastern North America.