In December of 2011, Igor Semiletov of the Far Eastern branch of the Russian Academy of Sciences released findings at the American Geophysical Union indicating that massive plumes of methane are gushing up from the floor of the Arctic Ocean as methane hydrates 'frozen' on the sea floor melt. A great fear of scientists has been that methane hydrates 'frozen' on the floor of the Arctic Ocean might be released if the ocean's temperature rises above their freezing point of 42 degrees Fahrenheit. This now appears to be happening along the East Siberian Arctic Shelf. The entire region experienced extensive cover ice melt last summer, breaking all records.

In 2010, methane levels in the arctic atmosphere were 1850 parts per billion, higher, it is believed by paleoclimatologists, than at any time in the past 400,000 years. Historically, concentrations are only 300 to 400 parts per billion. Given this new data, concentrations are likely to spike, with consequent damage to the planet's climate so extreme that they could usher in a new climate regime entirely.

In the first phase of this change, high atmospheric methane concentrations would cause aggressive warming across the arctic and into the northern middle lattitudes. This effect would be many times stronger than predicted in global warming models, which do not take into account a methane release such as will unfold if there is a general melt of methane hydrates in the arctic. This warming will cause widespread tundra and permafrost melt, which will add to atmospheric methane concentrations.

During this period, environmental changes will reduce human activity and population, primarily due to the collapse of agriculture over wide areas, as well as regional climactic events such as temperatures rising to levels at which the human body cannot sustain heat regulation. As the warming period extends, a widespread decline in human activity will cause carbon dioxide emissions to drop. At some point, the methane release will stop, and soon thereafter atmospheric methane levels will drop quickly, as the gas dissipates.

This will usher in the second phase of the new climate regime, which will involve a sudden collapse of planetary heating amid generally chaotic weather conditions (the historic 'superstorm' scenario repeating itself), and a new, much cooler climate, possibly cold enough to prevent mid-lattitude snow melt for a succession of seasons, thus ending the current interglacial and beginning a new ice age.

Adding to this could be cooling generated by solar changes. In May of 2011, NASA scientists announced that the next solar maximum, which will begin in 2020, will be of the type that has previously been associated with cooling on earth. During the so-called 'Little Ice Age' which began in the 13th Century and did not end until the 19th, solar activity was low, so changes in the sun may eventually bring a respite, but probably not before there is a climax involving heavy arctic methane release, most likely in the 2015-2018 period, barring unexpected events that alter current trends.

READING THE CLIMATE WATCH INDEX: The index is oriented toward the Northern Hemisphere. It checks ice, sea water warmth and current flow, and weather conditions at key points in the arctic. There is also a reading of solar activity, as there is some indication of a relationship between solar storms and weather changes on earth. In general, abnormally high arctic temperatures and low Gulf Stream flow in the winter will mean that the jet stream will be looping far north and south, causing violent weather in the middle lattitudes. Extreme summer heat in the arctic will result in more heat further south, and a radical temperature differential between north and south will bring heavy weather across continental areas of Europe and North America. But weather and climate are very complex, and these are never more than probabilities. Movement of the jet stream into the high arctic due to abnormally warm North Atlantic water temperatures during the September--April period indicates probable violent weather in Europe and eastern North America.