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Last updated on 11/15/2013

Northern Water Temperature:
Central Atlantic normal.

Gulf Stream Flow:
Gulf Stream flow normal.

Polar Ice Cap Status:
Average melt for season.

Arctic Air Temperatures:
Normal for season.

Greenland Ice Melt:
Ice unstable.

Solar activity:
Relatively quiet solar maximum.

Violent Weather Probability:

North America:

Colder than normal winter, violent autumn storms.

South America:
Warmer than usual summer.

Flooding likely in winter months.

During the autumn of 2013, Supertyphoon Haiyan became the strongest storm ever recorded. This happened because of unusually warm waters close to shore, that caused the storm to strengthen dramatically as it came ashore. At the same time, the Atlantic hurricane season was one of the quietest on record due to the movement of cooler water south from the Arctic. At the same time, Arctic temperatures continued to break summer records.

Melt across Greenland, both on the surface and at glacier roots, continued to cause concern. There is some indication that warming coming up from the planet's mantle may be contributing to the subsurface melt. There is a slight danger of sudden glacier slippage, which could result in rising sea levels.

Reduced solar output is causing global cooling while increasing levels of greenhouse gasses are making the atmosphere less able to release heat. This collision of opposites has created a difficult predictive environment. As 2013 progressed, cooling progressed. The hurricane season has thus far been one of the quietest on record.

At the same time, solar output has been very quiet. As long as that continues, Earth's temperatures are likely to moderate.

READING THE CLIMATE WATCH INDEX: The index is oriented toward the Northern Hemisphere. It checks ice, sea water warmth and current flow, and weather conditions at key points in the arctic. There is also a reading of solar activity, as there is some indication of a relationship between solar storms and weather changes on earth. In general, abnormally high arctic temperatures and low Gulf Stream flow in the winter will mean that the jet stream will be looping far north and south, causing violent weather in the middle latitudes. Extreme summer heat in the arctic will result in more heat further south, and a radical temperature differential between north and south will bring heavy weather across continental areas of Europe and North America. But weather and climate are very complex, and these are never more than probabilities. Movement of the jet stream into the high arctic due to abnormally warm North Atlantic water temperatures during the September--April period indicates probable violent weather in Europe and eastern North America.