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Last updated on 05/15/2014

Northern Water Temperature:
Central Atlantic normal.

Gulf Stream Flow:
Gulf Stream flow weak.

Polar Ice Melt Status:
North: Somewhat Above Average. South: Average.

Arctic Air Temperatures:
High for Season.

Greenland Ice Melt:
Ice unstable.

Solar activity:
Relatively quiet solar maximum.

Violent Weather Probability:

North America:

Colder than normal spring, violent spring and summer storms.

South America:
Warmer than usual summer.

Flooding likely in summer months.

The summer of 2014 will offer extremes of flooding, violent weather, heat and cold across the northern hemisphere.

Melt across Greenland, both on the surface and at glacier roots, continued to cause concern, and now melt is taking place at the root of Antarctic glaciers as well. There is a slight danger of sudden glacier slippage, which could result in rising sea levels.

Reduced solar output is causing global cooling while increasing levels of greenhouse gasses are making the atmosphere less able to release heat. This collision of opposites has created a difficult predictive environment. Into 2014, cooling progressed in the northern hemisphere. The US tornado season will be generally quiet, punctuated by extreme outbursts of damaging storms. Europe will see peaking temperatures in July and August, with possible records being set at that time. Flooding will continue to be a problem across southern Europe.

It appears that a massive El Nino event, similar in intensity to the 1997 event, is getting under way. If it develops, Asia will experience exceptional drought and heat this summer, while the western US will experience substantial increases in rainfall.

READING THE CLIMATE WATCH INDEX: The index is oriented toward the Northern Hemisphere. It checks ice, sea water warmth and current flow, and weather conditions at key points in the arctic. There is also a reading of solar activity, as there is some indication of a relationship between solar storms and weather changes on earth. In general, abnormally high arctic temperatures and low Gulf Stream flow in the winter will mean that the jet stream will be looping far north and south, causing violent weather in the middle latitudes. Extreme summer heat in the arctic will result in more heat further south, and a radical temperature differential between north and south will bring heavy weather across continental areas of Europe and North America. But weather and climate are very complex, and these are never more than probabilities. Movement of the jet stream into the high arctic due to abnormally warm North Atlantic water temperatures during the September--April period indicates probable violent weather in Europe and eastern North America.