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Edwina!
Junior Member
Username: mad_queen_edwina

Post Number: 68
Registered: 10-2004
Posted on Wednesday, August 20, 2008 - 10:25 am:   Edit Post Delete Post View Post/Check IP Print Post

Sine wave graph direct.
Liberty or Death!
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Chr15t05
Senior Member
Username: chr15t05

Post Number: 1139
Registered: 8-2004
Posted on Thursday, August 21, 2008 - 7:20 am:   Edit Post Delete Post View Post/Check IP Print Post

Yeah, if you look closely it's more like 600,000 sq. km.

There are other graphs that present the difference more accurately.

In truth we will need to lose more than a million more square kilometres of ice within the next month in order to equal 2007.

Chris
"There are two ways to be fooled. One is to believe what isn't true; the other is to refuse to believe what is true."
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sonorK
Senior Member
Username: sonork

Post Number: 777
Registered: 6-2002
Posted on Monday, August 25, 2008 - 9:09 am:   Edit Post Delete Post View Post/Check IP Print Post

Frost in Minnesota last night.... more below normal temps for the rest of the Midwest this week.
While it's not rocket science, the Farmer's Almanac is predicting a colder and snowier winter than usual for the formerly glaciated Midwest....
"If anyone says something about my surname, I say we are not related. I am ashamed." George Obama speaking of his brother, Barak.
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Chr15t05
Senior Member
Username: chr15t05

Post Number: 1140
Registered: 8-2004
Posted on Monday, August 25, 2008 - 4:45 pm:   Edit Post Delete Post View Post/Check IP Print Post

Here's an article about the Almanac's predictions.

Chris
"There are two ways to be fooled. One is to believe what isn't true; the other is to refuse to believe what is true."
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Edwina!
Junior Member
Username: mad_queen_edwina

Post Number: 70
Registered: 10-2004
Posted on Thursday, August 28, 2008 - 12:32 pm:   Edit Post Delete Post View Post/Check IP Print Post

Frost in MN August 24th night... god, that means bad freezes (below 20F) here in Louisiana this winter!

I wonder if we're experiencing peak global warming... I'll bet there are still zero sunspots on the Sun.
Liberty or Death!
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xretsim
Senior Member
Username: xretsim

Post Number: 723
Registered: 2-2001
Posted on Thursday, August 28, 2008 - 2:34 pm:   Edit Post Delete Post View Post/Check IP Print Post

http://idioms.thefreedictionary.com/You+can+lead+a+horse+to+water
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Chr15t05
Senior Member
Username: chr15t05

Post Number: 1148
Registered: 8-2004
Posted on Saturday, August 30, 2008 - 10:44 pm:   Edit Post Delete Post View Post/Check IP Print Post

There have been no sunspots recorded for the entire month of August. The last time we went a month without a single spot was back in 1914.

Chris
"There are two ways to be fooled. One is to believe what isn't true; the other is to refuse to believe what is true."
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Chr15t05
Senior Member
Username: chr15t05

Post Number: 1150
Registered: 8-2004
Posted on Sunday, August 31, 2008 - 6:25 am:   Edit Post Delete Post View Post/Check IP Print Post

Whoops, I meant 1913. Typo there.

Chris
"There are two ways to be fooled. One is to believe what isn't true; the other is to refuse to believe what is true."
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allen
Senior Member
Username: eastsider01

Post Number: 683
Registered: 4-2005
Posted on Monday, September 01, 2008 - 12:36 pm:   Edit Post Delete Post View Post/Check IP Print Post

Scientists from the University of Bremen, Germany have just published photos showing that it is now possible, for the first time in human history, to circumnavigate the North pole. Open water now stretches all the way around the Arctic. Northwest and Northeast passages have opened up simultaneously. Professor Wieslaw Maslowski of the Naval Postgraduate School in Monterey, California, concluded that there would be no ice between mid-July and mid-September as early as 2013.
Conditions were better this year- it had been cooler, particularly last winter - and for a while it looked as if the ice loss would not be so bad. But this month the melting accelerated. Last week it shrank below the 2005 level and the European Space Agency said: "A new record low could be reached in a matter of weeks."
Four weeks ago, a seven year sturdy at the University of Alberta reported that- besides shrinking in areas- the thickness of the ice has dropped by half in just six years.
four weeks ago, tourists had to be evacuated from Baffin Island's Auyuittug National Park because of flooding from thawing glaciers. "Auyuittug" means "land that never melts".
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Chr15t05
Senior Member
Username: chr15t05

Post Number: 1151
Registered: 8-2004
Posted on Monday, September 01, 2008 - 5:23 pm:   Edit Post Delete Post View Post/Check IP Print Post

2008 is still sitting 500,000 sq. km. above 2007, and for now the gap appears to be increasing.

IMO the circumnavigation claim is a bit of a publicity ploy, as looking at cryosphere, you would have to be a brave, brave soul to attempt the trip in a non ice-breaker vessel... unless it involves going around Greenland I suppose. (I would be interested in seeing the photos, however.)

Chris

(Message edited by Chr15t05 on September 01, 2008)
"There are two ways to be fooled. One is to believe what isn't true; the other is to refuse to believe what is true."
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Edwina!
Junior Member
Username: mad_queen_edwina

Post Number: 74
Registered: 10-2004
Posted on Thursday, September 11, 2008 - 10:03 am:   Edit Post Delete Post View Post/Check IP Print Post

I hope your'e right, Chris. I just went to the Cryosphere and it appears to show a narrowing of the gap between this year and last year, instead.

What a difference 10 days could make. I hope it widens again (this year more than last) by the 21st.
Liberty or Death!
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Edwina!
Junior Member
Username: mad_queen_edwina

Post Number: 75
Registered: 10-2004
Posted on Thursday, September 11, 2008 - 10:06 am:   Edit Post Delete Post View Post/Check IP Print Post

Yikes! Your NSDIC link now shows a narrowing, too!
Liberty or Death!
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Chr15t05
Senior Member
Username: chr15t05

Post Number: 1152
Registered: 8-2004
Posted on Thursday, September 11, 2008 - 6:17 pm:   Edit Post Delete Post View Post/Check IP Print Post

Yes, 2008 did get a little closer to 2007's record than I was expecting. Air and water temps in the Arctic have been below freezing since very early September, with new ice beginning to form, but there has continued to be some compaction and drift that made the overall surface area decrease.

Currently we're sitting at about 370k above last year, and for now it looks like that's about as close as we'll get as the last two days have seen the gap widen slightly. Fortunately another La Nina is predicted for October, which might facilitate another good season for ice growth. It's not much, but at least 6% of last years baby ice has survived to become multi-year ice.

Chris
"There are two ways to be fooled. One is to believe what isn't true; the other is to refuse to believe what is true."
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Chr15t05
Senior Member
Username: chr15t05

Post Number: 1153
Registered: 8-2004
Posted on Friday, September 12, 2008 - 2:41 am:   Edit Post Delete Post View Post/Check IP Print Post

Now back over 400,000 sq km behind 2007.

Chris
"There are two ways to be fooled. One is to believe what isn't true; the other is to refuse to believe what is true."
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Edwina!
Member
Username: mad_queen_edwina

Post Number: 78
Registered: 10-2004
Posted on Friday, September 12, 2008 - 11:57 am:   Edit Post Delete Post View Post/Check IP Print Post

And it looks like we won't reach last year's minimum, also.

Maybe the ice will build back to it's historical average; but that could take a long time (10 years??).
Liberty or Death!
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Chr15t05
Senior Member
Username: chr15t05

Post Number: 1154
Registered: 8-2004
Posted on Friday, September 12, 2008 - 9:07 pm:   Edit Post Delete Post View Post/Check IP Print Post

Possibly longer, and that's only assuming a cooling trend, which is by no means certain. The recent shift of the Pacific Decadal Oscillation to it's cool phase will certainly help, assuming it holds. But as long as so much first year ice is the only buffer between melting seasons I'd say the situation remains uncertain.

This season I overestimated the first year ice's ability to withstand the summer. Even with much cooler air and ocean temperatures overall it still proved very susceptible to ocean currents and storms, and warm water flowing in from the Bering Sea. Next season I guess we can expect a similar situation, but hopefully another small percentage of baby ice will make it through.

Chris
"There are two ways to be fooled. One is to believe what isn't true; the other is to refuse to believe what is true."
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zendor
Senior Member
Username: wizardofoz

Post Number: 539
Registered: 5-2003
Posted on Friday, September 12, 2008 - 9:23 pm:   Edit Post Delete Post View Post/Check IP Print Post

I would expect that the water temperature is more important factor than air temperature. Due to the huge amount of water to heat or cool, this thermal mass acts as a stabilizing influence on climate, which is a very good thing.

If you are right about there being a cooling cycle, I would still expect that 2009 to be just under this years peak.

It will be interesting to see what happens at solar max in 2011 -- 2012 and how active the sun will be in this solar cycle. It has been a very slow start so for.
A new koan:
If you have some ice cream, I will give it to you.
If you have no ice cream, I will take it away from you.
It is an ice cream koan.
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Chr15t05
Senior Member
Username: chr15t05

Post Number: 1155
Registered: 8-2004
Posted on Saturday, September 13, 2008 - 5:29 am:   Edit Post Delete Post View Post/Check IP Print Post

Hi Zendor. Yes, I absolutely agree about water temperature.

For the record, my prediction of a longer term cooling trend was for after the present solar cycle. The fact that the delay of cycle 24 has coincided with much cooler global temperatures is something I find very interesting, but it is not my opinion that the current trend will continue unabated.

And it will indeed be interesting to see what happens once cycle 24 finally kicks off. If you'd asked me a year ago I would have said 2011-12 would break all records for solar intensity. Now... well, who knows! I guess anything's possible.

Chris
"There are two ways to be fooled. One is to believe what isn't true; the other is to refuse to believe what is true."
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Chr15t05
Senior Member
Username: chr15t05

Post Number: 1156
Registered: 8-2004
Posted on Saturday, September 13, 2008 - 5:58 am:   Edit Post Delete Post View Post/Check IP Print Post

BTW - Zendor, can you please clarify what you mean when you say:

quote:

If you are right about there being a cooling cycle, I would still expect that 2009 to be just under this years peak.


There are several different ways that this could be interpreted, and I just want to make sure we're on the same page.

Chris
"There are two ways to be fooled. One is to believe what isn't true; the other is to refuse to believe what is true."
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zendor
Senior Member
Username: wizardofoz

Post Number: 540
Registered: 5-2003
Posted on Saturday, September 13, 2008 - 8:06 pm:   Edit Post Delete Post View Post/Check IP Print Post

Chr15t05, I was referring to the minimum arctic ice cover in northern summer.
A new koan:
If you have some ice cream, I will give it to you.
If you have no ice cream, I will take it away from you.
It is an ice cream koan.
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Chr15t05
Senior Member
Username: chr15t05

Post Number: 1157
Registered: 8-2004
Posted on Sunday, September 14, 2008 - 7:54 pm:   Edit Post Delete Post View Post/Check IP Print Post

Yeah, sorry, I thought so.

Yes, it stands to reason that this year's melt survived to the extent that it did in a big part due to the record amount of new ice that formed over the winter. As conditions this year may or may not be so facilitating of new ice formation, it is logical to conclude that next year may well see a new record minimum reached. However, I still have a little faith that another La Nina will bring with it another cold, snowy winter for the far north.

Chris
"There are two ways to be fooled. One is to believe what isn't true; the other is to refuse to believe what is true."
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Edwina!
Member
Username: mad_queen_edwina

Post Number: 80
Registered: 10-2004
Posted on Monday, September 15, 2008 - 1:32 pm:   Edit Post Delete Post View Post/Check IP Print Post

Today compared to a year ago.
Liberty or Death!
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Chr15t05
Senior Member
Username: chr15t05

Post Number: 1158
Registered: 8-2004
Posted on Monday, September 15, 2008 - 7:27 pm:   Edit Post Delete Post View Post/Check IP Print Post

The visible difference now equates to just under 500,000 square kilometers, an area roughly the size of Spain.

Chris
"There are two ways to be fooled. One is to believe what isn't true; the other is to refuse to believe what is true."
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sonorK
Senior Member
Username: sonork

Post Number: 821
Registered: 6-2002
Posted on Tuesday, September 16, 2008 - 12:44 pm:   Edit Post Delete Post View Post/Check IP Print Post

cool link Edwina! Thanks for that one.
"She's good lookin'." Joe Biden's first comment about Sarah Palin.
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Chr15t05
Senior Member
Username: chr15t05

Post Number: 1160
Registered: 8-2004
Posted on Thursday, September 18, 2008 - 3:00 am:   Edit Post Delete Post View Post/Check IP Print Post

The NSIDC is calling the melt season over, with a 9.4% gain on last year's minimum. That call might be a little premature as many previous years have ended later in September, but any additional loss should be minimal.

Chris
"There are two ways to be fooled. One is to believe what isn't true; the other is to refuse to believe what is true."
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Chr15t05
Senior Member
Username: chr15t05

Post Number: 1161
Registered: 8-2004
Posted on Friday, September 19, 2008 - 6:50 pm:   Edit Post Delete Post View Post/Check IP Print Post

Not sure about the specifics but here's an interesting development. Apparently NASA feels it's necessary to hold a live teleconference about the state of the sun:

Link to Original Page

NASA To Discuss Conditions On And Surrounding The Sun

WASHINGTON — NASA will hold a media teleconference Tuesday, Sept. 23, at 12:30 p.m. EDT, to discuss data from the joint NASA and European Space Agency Ulysses mission that reveals the sun’s solar wind is at a 50-year low. The sun’s current state could result in changing conditions in the solar system.

Ulysses was the first mission to survey the space environment above and below the poles of the sun. The reams of data Ulysses returned have changed forever the way scientists view our star and its effects. The venerable spacecraft has lasted more than 17 years - almost four times its expected mission lifetime.

To access visuals that will the accompany presentations, go to:

http://www.nasa.gov/topics/solarsystem/features/ulysses-20080923.html

Audio of the teleconference will be streamed live at:

http://www.nasa.gov/newsaudio

Chris
"There are two ways to be fooled. One is to believe what isn't true; the other is to refuse to believe what is true."
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Edwina!
Member
Username: mad_queen_edwina

Post Number: 82
Registered: 10-2004
Posted on Monday, September 22, 2008 - 4:00 pm:   Edit Post Delete Post View Post/Check IP Print Post

Any time, SonorK.
Liberty or Death!
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Edwina!
Member
Username: mad_queen_edwina

Post Number: 83
Registered: 10-2004
Posted on Tuesday, September 23, 2008 - 10:07 am:   Edit Post Delete Post View Post/Check IP Print Post

Almost 400,000 sq. km. more ice than last year.
Liberty or Death!
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brit
Intermediate Member
Username: clicker

Post Number: 130
Registered: 3-2001
Posted on Wednesday, September 24, 2008 - 8:38 am:   Edit Post Delete Post View Post/Check IP Print Post

Hi

I am concerned that 'vanishing polar bears' (as quoted on this website) and now 'as the planet continues to warm' (also from this website) are being stated as absolute certainties.

If the information coming out now is to be believed (and I see no reason why it shouldn't be SEE BELOW) then these 'facts' are, at the very least, open to debate:

http://environment.newscientist.com/channel/earth/climate-change/dn11656

http://www.theaustralian.news.com.au/story/0%2C25197%2C23583376-7583%2C00.html

Rather than running round like headless chickens blaming each other and arguing about futile measures which would have a negative effect on human freedoms and give politicians and Mao-like lefties their best opportnity yet for meddling and control of our lives, we should be learning how to ADAPT to climate change. And using the trillions we spend on ridiculous wars to develop new energy sources.

Because we aren't going to stop it, no matter how many people buy Priuses or turn their TVs off at night.

When I was young we were told an Ice Age was due, then it was 'Global Warming'. Now it's 'Climate Change'. And these days we're blaming ourselves for them all.

Did ancient humans blame themselves for the approaching glaciers? Or when the seas rose by hundreds of feet and caused the UK to split from Europe? Did you know bones from animals such as rhinos and elephants have been dragged up from the bottom of the English Channel? Human beings did not cease to exist in those warm days.

Imagine if these events happened today. Imagine the draconian laws that would be enacted! And all because of natural and unstoppable events.

Even Whitley's ancient superstorms, when mammoths died with grass in their mouths, happened long before a single factory belched out CO2.

If there's one thing I personally have learned from all this interest in the climate it's that it's like everything else in the universe: i.e. it is almost completely unpredictable and that 'certainties' often end up being superceded by new information. But that's science.

In any case - and whatever the truth - we should be very wary of those that see Global Warming Hysteria as a golden opportunity to activate their own very narrow agendas of control.
"I know that human beings and fish can co-exist peacefully" - President George Bush
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Chr15t05
Senior Member
Username: chr15t05

Post Number: 1162
Registered: 8-2004
Posted on Wednesday, September 24, 2008 - 7:25 pm:   Edit Post Delete Post View Post/Check IP Print Post

I think it's fair enough that we take reasonable precautions, but a lot of what I see being proposed lately is far from what I would consider reasonable based on available evidence. To me it all (or at least mostly) comes down to AGW's supposed mechanisms for warming, which to this date are still MIA in empirical studies.

The Aqua satellite was launched specifically to document the planet's water cycle with hopes it would prove the AGW hypothesis by showing the intensely positive feedback predicted by computer models. But it has not provided this evidence.

Likewise, the Argos project, designed to document the heating of the oceans, supposedly responsible for at least 80% of AGW, has not shown any statistically significant change in temperature during some of the hottest years on earth.

But even still, the ol' AGW freight train just keeps rolling along, even picking up pace. The common tactic for those aware of the above information has been to either ignore the evidence altogether, or hypothesize around it and assume the hypothesis is correct. This, IMO, is not the way science is supposed to function.

Chris
"There are two ways to be fooled. One is to believe what isn't true; the other is to refuse to believe what is true."
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Chr15t05
Senior Member
Username: chr15t05

Post Number: 1163
Registered: 8-2004
Posted on Friday, October 10, 2008 - 12:03 am:   Edit Post Delete Post View Post/Check IP Print Post

Don't know if anyone's still following this, but the recovery of arctic sea ice from this season's minimum is occurring faster than any of the last six years. There is now over a million square kilometres more ice than at this point in 2007, and if the current trend continues 2008 will pull in front of 2005 and 2006 within the next week. See graph for more information.

Chris
"There are two ways to be fooled. One is to believe what isn't true; the other is to refuse to believe what is true."
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allen
Senior Member
Username: eastsider01

Post Number: 755
Registered: 4-2005
Posted on Friday, October 10, 2008 - 12:17 pm:   Edit Post Delete Post View Post/Check IP Print Post

Well that's a bit of good news on this gloomy day! Thanks Chr15t05
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xretsim
Senior Member
Username: xretsim

Post Number: 760
Registered: 2-2001
Posted on Friday, October 10, 2008 - 3:25 pm:   Edit Post Delete Post View Post/Check IP Print Post

Q. How can global warming and sudden cooling happen at the same time?

A. Confusion arises because a cooling can be a regional event, superimposed on top of continuously warming earth. Global warming is driven by the increased capture of solar energy due to the increasing concentration of greenhouse gases (such as carbon dioxide and methane) in the atmosphere, caused mainly by human activities. The warming has global consequences. The energy gained from higher greenhouse gas concentrations is distributed around the globe and affects many systems - warming the atmosphere, warming the oceans, increasing evaporation in some regions and precipitation in others, and melting glaciers.

Complications arise when you consider how heat and water are moved around the planet. Warming is causing more water to evaporate from the tropics, more rainfall in subpolar and polar regions, and more ice to melt at high latitudes. As a result, fresh water is being lost from the tropics and added to the ocean at higher latitudes. In the North Atlantic Ocean, the additional fresh water can change ocean circulation patterns, disrupting or redirecting currents that now carry warm water to the north. Redirecting or slowing this "Atlantic heat pump" would mean colder winters in the northeast U.S. and Western Europe. But the heat gained from higher greenhouse gas concentrations is still in the climate system, just elsewhere. The result: a warmer earth, a colder North Atlantic.


Common Misconceptions about Abrupt Climate Change:

http://www.whoi.edu/page.do?pid=12455&tid=282&cid=10149
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Chr15t05
Senior Member
Username: chr15t05

Post Number: 1164
Registered: 8-2004
Posted on Friday, October 10, 2008 - 6:27 pm:   Edit Post Delete Post View Post/Check IP Print Post

Propaganda: Propaganda is a concerted set of messages aimed at influencing the opinions or behaviors of large numbers of people. As opposed to impartially providing information, propaganda in its most basic sense presents information in order to influence its audience. Propaganda often presents facts selectively (thus lying by omission) to encourage a particular synthesis, or gives loaded messages in order to produce an emotional rather than rational response to the information presented. The desired result is a change of the cognitive narrative of the subject in the target audience to further a political agenda.

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Propaganda
"There are two ways to be fooled. One is to believe what isn't true; the other is to refuse to believe what is true."
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Chr15t05
Senior Member
Username: chr15t05

Post Number: 1165
Registered: 8-2004
Posted on Tuesday, October 14, 2008 - 5:46 pm:   Edit Post Delete Post View Post/Check IP Print Post

Bad weather was good for Alaska glaciers

Extract:

Two hundred years of glacial shrinkage in Alaska, and then came the winter and summer of 2007-2008.

Unusually large amounts of winter snow were followed by unusually chill temperatures in June, July and August.

"In mid-June, I was surprised to see snow still at sea level in Prince William Sound," said U.S. Geological Survey glaciologist Bruce Molnia. "On the Juneau Icefield, there was still 20 feet of new snow on the surface of the Taku Glacier in late July. At Bering Glacier, a landslide I am studying, located at about 1,500 feet elevation, did not become snow free until early August.

"In general, the weather this summer was the worst I have seen in at least 20 years."

Never before in the history of a research project dating back to 1946 had the Juneau Icefield witnessed the kind of snow buildup that came this year. It was similar on a lot of other glaciers too.

"It's been a long time on most glaciers where they've actually had positive mass balance," Molnia said.


(Article Continues)
"There are two ways to be fooled. One is to believe what isn't true; the other is to refuse to believe what is true."
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xretsim
Senior Member
Username: xretsim

Post Number: 771
Registered: 2-2001
Posted on Wednesday, October 15, 2008 - 3:03 am:   Edit Post Delete Post View Post/Check IP Print Post

but isn't this just proof of my previous quote?

Warming is causing more water to evaporate from the tropics, more rainfall in subpolar and polar regions, and more ice to melt at high latitudes. As a result, fresh water is being lost from the tropics and added to the ocean at higher latitudes. In the North Atlantic Ocean, the additional fresh water can change ocean circulation patterns, disrupting or redirecting currents that now carry warm water to the north. Redirecting or slowing this "Atlantic heat pump" would mean colder winters in the northeast U.S. and Western Europe. But the heat gained from higher greenhouse gas concentrations is still in the climate system, just elsewhere. The result: a warmer earth, a colder North Atlantic.
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Chr15t05
Senior Member
Username: chr15t05

Post Number: 1166
Registered: 8-2004
Posted on Wednesday, October 15, 2008 - 5:29 am:   Edit Post Delete Post View Post/Check IP Print Post

As far as I am aware the cooling is being driven by a lingering la nina circulation in global weather patterns, as well as the recent flip in the pacific decadal oscillation, which has now entered its "cool" phase. Your above quote is provocative, but I don't believe it applies to the present situation. Case and point: the majority of arctic melt this season was caused by warm water flowing further north than normal and entering the Arctic ocean.

Alas, most who are already aboard the CO2 bandwagon will not pause to check the evidence, they will simply read the provided dogma and assume it must be correct. After all, the AGW argument has been so well thought through and so widely distributed that it can now be applied to every possible climate fluctuation, even up against evidence that's either contradictory or absent. If you ask me, it's a slippery slope indeed.

Chris
"There are two ways to be fooled. One is to believe what isn't true; the other is to refuse to believe what is true."
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xretsim
Senior Member
Username: xretsim

Post Number: 773
Registered: 2-2001
Posted on Wednesday, October 15, 2008 - 7:12 am:   Edit Post Delete Post View Post/Check IP Print Post

i see where you are coming from. at the moment, i am leaning toward natural global warming having been sped up by human activity. imo if we just ignore it, the potential consequences are far worse than the economic consequences of reducing our footprint on the planet. it doesn't seem smart to gamble considering what is at stake.
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Chr15t05
Senior Member
Username: chr15t05

Post Number: 1167
Registered: 8-2004
Posted on Wednesday, October 15, 2008 - 9:08 am:   Edit Post Delete Post View Post/Check IP Print Post

I agree with your thinking wholeheartedly, I am simply cautious in attributing too much influence to the human element without first viewing evidence validating the supposed mechanisms behind AGW theory. Without these mechanisms it is *impossible* for CO2 to be a climate driver at present concentrations; at most it would provide minor amplification to an existing trend. I have been looking for some time now, and all I keep finding is endless scientific speculation boosted by politics, clever marketing and some good, old-fashioned scaremongering.

Chris
"There are two ways to be fooled. One is to believe what isn't true; the other is to refuse to believe what is true."
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Chr15t05
Senior Member
Username: chr15t05

Post Number: 1172
Registered: 8-2004
Posted on Thursday, October 30, 2008 - 7:27 pm:   Edit Post Delete Post View Post/Check IP Print Post

Switzerland: Record snow storm triggers delays
Extract: "According to MeteoNews, the Swiss lowlands received the most snow for any October since records began in 1931. Zurich received 20cm, beating a record of 14cm set in 1939."

London has first October snow in over 70 years
Extract: "Parts of south-east England had more than an inch of snow last night while London experienced its first October snowfall in more than 70 years as winter conditions arrived early."

According to the NCDC, on October 29 there were 115 new or tied low temperature records made in the United States. There were also 163 lowest high temperature records made. And 63 snowfall records broken.

Chris
"There are two ways to be fooled. One is to believe what isn't true; the other is to refuse to believe what is true."
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Edwina!
Member
Username: mad_queen_edwina

Post Number: 85
Registered: 10-2004
Posted on Friday, October 31, 2008 - 3:09 pm:   Edit Post Delete Post View Post/Check IP Print Post

Yep. Another coldest winter in decades right after the last one, due to, I believe, the complete lack of sunspots in the sun.
Liberty or Death!
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Edwina!
Member
Username: mad_queen_edwina

Post Number: 86
Registered: 10-2004
Posted on Friday, October 31, 2008 - 3:11 pm:   Edit Post Delete Post View Post/Check IP Print Post

Correction: almmost a complete lack of sunspots.

After almost a year with no sunspots we now have 13 of 'em.

(Message edited by mad_queen_edwina on October 31, 2008)
Liberty or Death!
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Lassen Sage
Advanced Member
Username: lassen_sage

Post Number: 442
Registered: 5-2008
Posted on Saturday, November 01, 2008 - 2:25 am:   Edit Post Delete Post View Post/Check IP Print Post

Thanks Edwina,the story further down on this page on Magnetic Portals is fascinating,also.
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Chr15t05
Senior Member
Username: chr15t05

Post Number: 1173
Registered: 8-2004
Posted on Monday, November 03, 2008 - 10:17 pm:   Edit Post Delete Post View Post/Check IP Print Post

Yeah Edwina, looks like the sun might be coming out of minimum at last. It will be interesting to see how/if this affects global temperatures. There's usually quite a significant lag between cause and effect, and with Pacific Oscillation still fairly deeply negative temps may stay down for a while yet. Then again, maybe not. (I've been surprised one too many times to be confident. )

Chris
"There are two ways to be fooled. One is to believe what isn't true; the other is to refuse to believe what is true."
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Chr15t05
Senior Member
Username: chr15t05

Post Number: 1174
Registered: 8-2004
Posted on Monday, November 03, 2008 - 10:54 pm:   Edit Post Delete Post View Post/Check IP Print Post

Alaska: Winter's chill comes early as Fairbanks records fourth-coldest October
Extract: "Thanks to persistent, below-average temperatures, October 2008 went down as the fourth-coldest October in more than a century of weather records in Fairbanks, according to meteorologist Rick Thoman with the National Weather Service in Fairbanks."

Ireland: East records coldest October in 15 years
Extract: "Average air temperatures were one degree below normal everywhere after a severe cold spell at the end of the month."..."Dublin Airport’s minimum air temperature of -1.3 degrees C on the 28th was its lowest for October since 1948."

Cuba: Cold Snap Sets October Record
Extract: "The sharp drop in temperature, unusual for this time of year, is due to a massive continental Arctic air mass, along with little cloud cover and weak winds in the interior and south of the country."

Chris
"There are two ways to be fooled. One is to believe what isn't true; the other is to refuse to believe what is true."
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zendor
Senior Member
Username: wizardofoz

Post Number: 546
Registered: 5-2003
Posted on Wednesday, November 05, 2008 - 6:24 am:   Edit Post Delete Post View Post/Check IP Print Post

On the other hand .... just to show there are other opinions ... :-)

From LMH's great site www.earthfiles.com see Rapidly Changing Earth

In October, scientists reported that the fall temperatures in the Arctic broke all record highs – averaging 5 degrees Celcius above normal, which is 9 degrees Fahrenheit above normal!

All that Arctic warming has caused the highest sea level rise on record. It doesn’t seem like a big number – only .254 centimeters a year – but it still means Arctic waters are rising as more and more ice melts from the warmer and warmer Arctic temperatures.

All the Arctic sea ice melt in 2008 was the second greatest since satellite measurements began in 1979. The volume of Arctic ice melt might be even more than 2007, which holds the number one spot for area of ice melt. That makes two years in a row of record-breaking Arctic ice melt.

The consequences so far are:

a) the decline of reindeer herds;

b) green shrubs are now moving into Arctic areas that used to be permafrost;

c) and the saltiness of the Arctic Ocean and North Atlantic is being diluted by all the fresh ice water runoff. Less salt in the North Atlantic water means less density. Less density could slow down – or even stop – the North Atlantic Oscillation that brings warm equatorial waters to the North Atlantic. It’s that oscillation of warm water from the equator to the British Isles that helps keep the U. K. and Europe warmer. The reason the oscillation might stop is that less salty water is lighter and won’t sink as deeply and rapidly.
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Chr15t05
Senior Member
Username: chr15t05

Post Number: 1175
Registered: 8-2004
Posted on Wednesday, November 05, 2008 - 7:10 pm:   Edit Post Delete Post View Post/Check IP Print Post


quote:

In October, scientists reported that the fall temperatures in the Arctic broke all record highs – averaging 5 degrees Celcius above normal, which is 9 degrees Fahrenheit above normal!


Oh yes, I loved this little gem. In order to get the provocative headline the authors of the original article cherry-picked data from lower-latitude land stations and then applied the average to the entire Arctic Ocean (where all the ice is). This had the affect of dramatically (*and intentionally*) overstating Arctic Temperatures. All subsequent reports, including earthfiles, simply published the same text without checking the data, as is standard journalism these days .

If anyone's interested, 2008 ice growth may shortly cross above the long-term average.

Chris
"There are two ways to be fooled. One is to believe what isn't true; the other is to refuse to believe what is true."
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zendor
Senior Member
Username: wizardofoz

Post Number: 549
Registered: 5-2003
Posted on Thursday, November 06, 2008 - 6:02 am:   Edit Post Delete Post View Post/Check IP Print Post

It is all relative. I posted these articles to show that the belief that things are returning to more normal conditions are not universal, or even a majority view.

I cannot comment on the quality on the articles, except to say that I have to rely on the quality of good people like LMH from earthfiles to maintain the quality of the articles they post. I would rate her opinion well above some of the naysayers who post here.

The fact that Arctic ice in the last two years are record lows (some argue that the mass/thickness of Arctic ice, rather than the records extent in 2007 was lower in 2008 than 2007. Indicated that global warming in still a problem we have to deal with -- and we still have to consider what part we have played in it.

Anyone from high latitudes reading these posts -- lets hear from you as to what is happening in the Arctic first hand.
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Chr15t05
Senior Member
Username: chr15t05

Post Number: 1178
Registered: 8-2004
Posted on Thursday, November 06, 2008 - 7:20 am:   Edit Post Delete Post View Post/Check IP Print Post

It will be very interesting to see what happens in the arctic over the next few seasons, and I too would value the opinion of anyone who lives in the region. Of particular interest would be comparisons of this year to previous years in temperature and ice extent, and I suppose also recent years to the ~1940s' period of warming (if there's anyone still around!).

Chris
"There are two ways to be fooled. One is to believe what isn't true; the other is to refuse to believe what is true."
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xretsim
Senior Member
Username: xretsim

Post Number: 800
Registered: 2-2001
Posted on Thursday, November 06, 2008 - 2:35 pm:   Edit Post Delete Post View Post/Check IP Print Post

"because of la niña", says hans olav hygen from "meteorologisk institutt", 2008 has been slightly colder here in the north, but still 1.84 degrees above the norm. 2008 will be one of the warmest years since 1850. temperatures will rise again once la niña has calmed down, says hygen.

"contrary to what some people are saying, there has not been any global cooling during this last decade. it has gotten warmer," says hygen.

graph provided by "meteorologisk institutt": http://www.forskning.no/artikler/2008/august/191167

"varmer and wetter in october"

the median temperature was 0.4 degrees above the norm. rainfall was 115% of the norm for the whole country.

http://www.yr.no/nyheter/1.6293136

(Message edited by xretsim on November 06, 2008)
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Chr15t05
Senior Member
Username: chr15t05

Post Number: 1179
Registered: 8-2004
Posted on Thursday, November 06, 2008 - 5:29 pm:   Edit Post Delete Post View Post/Check IP Print Post

La Nina actually ended months ago and conditions have been neutral since. There is still a chance that La Nina will return near the end of the year, but we've beem neutral now for quite a while.

As far as I am aware none of the main global temperature records show overall warming over the last decade. If you are aware of one that does please post it so I can have a look. Apologies for being overly cynical, but due to the political nature of this issue I'm long past believing any article or opinion at face value. So we're on the same page, here is a plot comparing all four main global temperature monitors over the last ten years.

No argument that the north is still warmer than "normal" (though I do hate the use of that word when it comes to climate). However, the bigger picture in the pacific is the decadal oscillation, which went deeply into its cool phase in mid-2007. This will make La Nina's more frequent, probably for the next several decades. And there is usually a 1.5 to 2 year lag between arctic response to PDO flips, which is another reason it will be very interesting to see what happens next season.

Chris
"There are two ways to be fooled. One is to believe what isn't true; the other is to refuse to believe what is true."
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xretsim
Senior Member
Username: xretsim

Post Number: 801
Registered: 2-2001
Posted on Thursday, November 06, 2008 - 7:26 pm:   Edit Post Delete Post View Post/Check IP Print Post

google translation of the article:

http://translate.google.com/translate?u=http%3A%2F%2Fwww.forskning.no%2Fartikler %2F2008%2Faugust%2F191167&hl=en&ie=UTF-8&sl=no&tl=en

>As far as I am aware none of the main global
>temperature records show overall warming over the
>last decade. If you are aware of one that does
>please post it so I can have a look

http://eklima.met.no/metno/trend/TAMA_G100_0_1000_NO.jpg

source: Climate Research Unit at the University of East Anglia in Britain
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xretsim
Senior Member
Username: xretsim

Post Number: 802
Registered: 2-2001
Posted on Thursday, November 06, 2008 - 7:53 pm:   Edit Post Delete Post View Post/Check IP Print Post

http://data.giss.nasa.gov/gistemp/graphs/
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Chr15t05
Senior Member
Username: chr15t05

Post Number: 1180
Registered: 8-2004
Posted on Thursday, November 06, 2008 - 9:31 pm:   Edit Post Delete Post View Post/Check IP Print Post

The first graph is misleading in its presentation, and because it does not include 2008 data even though that's what the article is supposed to be about! It's also not 100% clear which global dataset they are using, though my guess would be land station data. Even still, note how the black line levels out over the last several years; that's because the ten year average has stopped increasing. When 2008 data is added you will likely even see a dip appear, which is what I've been talking about in this thread.

And regarding the GISS data, I've made my concerns about GISS well known here in the past. It is controlled by someone with a personal agenda to promote anthropogenic warming, and it consistently records more warming than any of the other global records. Its data can not be critiqued because the code used to reach its averages has never been released to peer review. It also goes through a series of retroactive "adjustments" that tend to lower the average temperature of previous years making the warming trend appear more pronounced.

But still, given all of the above, once 2008 data is added even GISS shows no overall warming in the last ten years. See this graph, found within the second link you posted.

Chris
"There are two ways to be fooled. One is to believe what isn't true; the other is to refuse to believe what is true."
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Chr15t05
Senior Member
Username: chr15t05

Post Number: 1181
Registered: 8-2004
Posted on Thursday, November 06, 2008 - 9:51 pm:   Edit Post Delete Post View Post/Check IP Print Post

I had a look at the University of East Anglia's website and found an alternate version of the graph you posted. This one still only shows data up to 2007, but for some reason it far more clearly demonstrates the trend over the last ten years. It will show an even bigger dip once 2008 is added. Not sure why the graph in the article you posted was changed (but the cynic in me could take a wild guess...).

Chris
"There are two ways to be fooled. One is to believe what isn't true; the other is to refuse to believe what is true."
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Chr15t05
Senior Member
Username: chr15t05

Post Number: 1182
Registered: 8-2004
Posted on Friday, November 07, 2008 - 3:54 am:   Edit Post Delete Post View Post/Check IP Print Post

Having had a chance to have a proper look, I think the difference between those graphs is just that one is taken from GISS and the other Hadcrut. My comments on GISS still apply.

I should add also, that the two independent satellite measurements we've had since 1979 don't agree with extent of warming recorded in land station data. This is why you usually only ever see land station data used in pro-AGW articles. See UAH Record - RSS Record. Try comparing 2008's values to other years in the record.

Satellites aren't perfect either, but they do overcome the main problem with the land station records, which is that most stations have been located within rapidly expanding urban centres. There has been quite a lot of work done over at surfacestations.org to document the long-term corruption of station data.

Chris
"There are two ways to be fooled. One is to believe what isn't true; the other is to refuse to believe what is true."
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xretsim
Senior Member
Username: xretsim

Post Number: 804
Registered: 2-2001
Posted on Friday, November 07, 2008 - 6:05 am:   Edit Post Delete Post View Post/Check IP Print Post

>Not sure why the graph in the article you posted
><was changed (but the cynic in me could take a
>wild guess...).

personally, i don't see much of a difference. norway is one of the least corrupt countries in the world, so you are likely to hear the truth here first (all our weather data are freely available to the public). maybe you should contact the norwegian meteorological institute: http://met.no/english/ i think they will be happy to answer intelligent questions.
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Chr15t05
Senior Member
Username: chr15t05

Post Number: 1183
Registered: 8-2004
Posted on Friday, November 07, 2008 - 8:04 am:   Edit Post Delete Post View Post/Check IP Print Post

Yeah, sorry, the difference between GISS and the other datasets is much more obvious when you compare plots of monthly averages. My objection to the yearly plot was that I thought they had "adjusted" the ten year average to still show some warming. In reality they had just used GISS data without incorporating 2008 (presumably because up until then GISS was the one record still showing some warming in its smoothed average).

Thanks for the link, I'll check it out. However, to my knowledge Norway does not have control of a global temperature record, which means the meteorological institute has to rely on one of these same datasets (GISS, Hadcrut, UAH, RSS) to calculate the global average. The links you have posted seem to have quite a heavy slant towards land station data, which I have already been looking into for a while.

Chris
"There are two ways to be fooled. One is to believe what isn't true; the other is to refuse to believe what is true."
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Chr15t05
Senior Member
Username: chr15t05

Post Number: 1184
Registered: 8-2004
Posted on Monday, November 10, 2008 - 7:31 pm:   Edit Post Delete Post View Post/Check IP Print Post

Well, speak of the devil and the devil appears. Funny how that works. October temperature data has just been released. Let's review:

RSS Satellite 0.181

UAH Satellite 0.167

Both satellites are hovering close to the same values, one tracking a slightly cooler October as compared to September, the other very slightly warmer. Both are in good agreement that overall temperatures remain cooler globally than any year this century.

Now here's GISS:

GISS Average 0.78 (!)

"Warmest October on record", apparently (*cough*). Indeed, it is one of the largest temperature anomalies ever recorded, and also the second time in 2008 that GISS has broken a record for the largest variance between its calculated average and direct satellite observations. But let's wait and see which story makes the headlines. Xretsim, you may also like to observe the position your meteorological institute takes with the available data.

Chris
"There are two ways to be fooled. One is to believe what isn't true; the other is to refuse to believe what is true."
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Chr15t05
Senior Member
Username: chr15t05

Post Number: 1185
Registered: 8-2004
Posted on Tuesday, November 11, 2008 - 12:37 am:   Edit Post Delete Post View Post/Check IP Print Post

Update on the above; it's looking more and more like it might just be a data error. Bloggers are reporting numerous stations in regional Russia where the GHCN v2 data from NOAA for September appears to have been copied into October. Obviously, in the NH the October average is cooler than September, so the earlier data makes it appear that a huge portion of the Earth's surface is alarmingly above average.

A less significant but no less perplexing oddity occurs in the UK, which GISS records as a full 1-4 degrees above average in a month where the Met Office records a negative anomaly of -0.9 across central England, East Ireland recorded its coldest October in 15 years, and it snowed in london for the first time in 70. Not sure how exactly this is going to play out, but it does make for some interesting times.

Chris
"There are two ways to be fooled. One is to believe what isn't true; the other is to refuse to believe what is true."
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Chr15t05
Senior Member
Username: chr15t05

Post Number: 1186
Registered: 8-2004
Posted on Tuesday, November 11, 2008 - 2:22 am:   Edit Post Delete Post View Post/Check IP Print Post

Whoops, apologies, I must have pasted the above link to the the UK Met office incorrectly. Here's the correct link. According to the available summary:


quote:

Maximum, minimum and mean daily temperatures were all below average across the UK. Most areas, provisionally had their coldest October since 2003, but Northern Ireland had its coldest since 1993 with mean temperatures around 1 deg C below average.


Now compare this with the GISS/Hansen version of reality. Are you guys at least able to see my point here?

Chris
"There are two ways to be fooled. One is to believe what isn't true; the other is to refuse to believe what is true."
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Chr15t05
Senior Member
Username: chr15t05

Post Number: 1187
Registered: 8-2004
Posted on Tuesday, November 11, 2008 - 5:42 pm:   Edit Post Delete Post View Post/Check IP Print Post

We now have an official retraction from GISS:

quote:

2008-11-11: Most data posted yesterday were replaced by the data posted last month since it looks like some mishap might have occurred when NOAA updated their GHCN data. We will postpone updating this web site until we get confirmation from NOAA that their updating programs worked properly. Because today is a Federal Holiday, some pages are still showing yesterday's data.


Just to get on my soapbox for a minute; the fact that such a glaringly obvious error somehow escaped the "rigorous quality control" of the GISS team speaks volumes. At no point did anyone think to (a) question the record breaking anomaly, or (b) visually inspect the data that generated it?? I never thought I'd say this, but thank god for bloggers.

Chris
"There are two ways to be fooled. One is to believe what isn't true; the other is to refuse to believe what is true."
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epsom
Junior Member
Username: epsom

Post Number: 65
Registered: 1-2008
Posted on Sunday, November 16, 2008 - 3:37 pm:   Edit Post Delete Post View Post/Check IP Print Post

From the Telegraph, 16th Nov.


Telegraph.co.uk
The world has never seen such freezing heat

By Christopher Booker
Last Updated: 12:01am GMT 16/11/2008



A surreal scientific blunder last week raised a huge question mark about the temperature records that underpin the worldwide alarm over global warming. On Monday, Nasa's Goddard Institute for Space Studies (GISS), which is run by Al Gore's chief scientific ally, Dr James Hansen, and is one of four bodies responsible for monitoring global temperatures, announced that last month was the hottest October on record.

This was startling. Across the world there were reports of unseasonal snow and plummeting temperatures last month, from the American Great Plains to China, and from the Alps to New Zealand. China's official news agency reported that Tibet had suffered its "worst snowstorm ever". In the US, the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration registered 63 local snowfall records and 115 lowest-ever temperatures for the month, and ranked it as only the 70th-warmest October in 114 years.
So what explained the anomaly? GISS's computerised temperature maps seemed to show readings across a large part of Russia had been up to 10 degrees higher than normal. But when expert readers of the two leading warming-sceptic blogs, Watts Up With That and Climate Audit, began detailed analysis of the GISS data they made an astonishing discovery. The reason for the freak figures was that scores of temperature records from Russia and elsewhere were not based on October readings at all. Figures from the previous month had simply been carried over and repeated two months running.

The error was so glaring that when it was reported on the two blogs - run by the US meteorologist Anthony Watts and Steve McIntyre, the Canadian computer analyst who won fame for his expert debunking of the notorious "hockey stick" graph - GISS began hastily revising its figures. This only made the confusion worse because, to compensate for the lowered temperatures in Russia, GISS claimed to have discovered a new "hotspot" in the Arctic - in a month when satellite images were showing Arctic sea-ice recovering so fast from its summer melt that three weeks ago it was 30 per cent more extensive than at the same time last year.
A GISS spokesman lamely explained that the reason for the error in the Russian figures was that they were obtained from another body, and that GISS did not have resources to exercise proper quality control over the data it was supplied with. This is an astonishing admission: the figures published by Dr Hansen's institute are not only one of the four data sets that the UN's Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) relies on to promote its case for global warming, but they are the most widely quoted, since they consistently show higher temperatures than the others.
If there is one scientist more responsible than any other for the alarm over global warming it is Dr Hansen, who set the whole scare in train back in 1988 with his testimony to a US Senate committee chaired by Al Gore. Again and again, Dr Hansen has been to the fore in making extreme claims over the dangers of climate change. (He was recently in the news here for supporting the Greenpeace activists acquitted of criminally damaging a coal-fired power station in Kent, on the grounds that the harm done to the planet by a new power station would far outweigh any damage they had done themselves.)
Yet last week's latest episode is far from the first time Dr Hansen's methodology has been called in question. In 2007 he was forced by Mr Watts and Mr McIntyre to revise his published figures for US surface temperatures, to show that the hottest decade of the 20th century was not the 1990s, as he had claimed, but the 1930s.
Another of his close allies is Dr Rajendra Pachauri, chairman of the IPCC, who recently startled a university audience in Australia by claiming that global temperatures have recently been rising "very much faster" than ever, in front of a graph showing them rising sharply in the past decade. In fact, as many of his audience were aware, they have not been rising in recent years and since 2007 have dropped.
Dr Pachauri, a former railway engineer with no qualifications in climate science, may believe what Dr Hansen tells him. But whether, on the basis of such evidence, it is wise for the world's governments to embark on some of the most costly economic measures ever proposed, to remedy a problem which may actually not exist, is a question which should give us all pause for thought.


    
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Chr15t05
Senior Member
Username: chr15t05

Post Number: 1189
Registered: 8-2004
Posted on Thursday, December 04, 2008 - 7:46 pm:   Edit Post Delete Post View Post/Check IP Print Post

Looks to me like La Nina is back just in time for NH winter. La Nina's don't usually reform from neutral conditions this late in the year, and I know the mainstream weather forecasts for an average winter were based on continuing neutral conditions in the Pacific. This may mean the Farmers Almanac turns out to be the more accurate forecaster for this US winter.

Chris
"There are two ways to be fooled. One is to believe what isn't true; the other is to refuse to believe what is true."
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Chr15t05
Senior Member
Username: chr15t05

Post Number: 1190
Registered: 8-2004
Posted on Friday, December 05, 2008 - 1:46 am:   Edit Post Delete Post View Post/Check IP Print Post

Sun's Magnetic Field May Impact Weather And Climate: Sun Cycle Can Predict Rainfall Fluctuations

ScienceDaily (Dec. 3, 2008) — The sun’s magnetic field may have a significant impact on weather and climatic parameters in Australia and other countries in the northern and southern hemispheres. According to a study in Geographical Research, the droughts are related to the solar magnetic phases and not the greenhouse effect.

The study uses data from 1876 to the present to examine the correlation between solar cycles and the extreme rainfall in Australia.

It finds that the Southern Oscillation Index (SOI) – the basic tool for forecasting variations in global and oceanic patterns – and rainfall fluctuations recorded over the last decade are similar to those in 1914 -1924.

Author Professor Robert G. V. Baker from the School of Environmental Studies, University of New England, Australia, says, “The interaction between the directionality in the Sun’s and Earth’s magnetic fields, the incidence of ultraviolet radiation over the tropical Pacific, and changes in sea surface temperatures with cloud cover – could all contribute to an explanation of substantial changes in the SOI from solar cycle fluctuations. If solar cycles continue to show relational values to climate patterns, there is the potential for more accurate forecasting through to 2010 and possibly beyond.”

The SOI-solar association has been investigated recently due to increasing interest in the relationship between the sun’s cycles and the climate. The solar application offers the potential for the long-range prediction of SOI behavior and associated rainfall variations, since quasi-periodicity in solar activity results in an expected cycle of situations and phases that are not random events.

Professor Baker adds, “This discovery could substantially advance forecasting from months to decades. It should result in much better long-term management of agricultural production and water resources, in areas where rainfall is correlated to SOI and El Niño (ENSO) events.”
"There are two ways to be fooled. One is to believe what isn't true; the other is to refuse to believe what is true."
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shedmyskin
Senior Member
Username: shedmyskin

Post Number: 1208
Registered: 1-2007
Posted on Thursday, December 11, 2008 - 7:26 am:   Edit Post Delete Post View Post/Check IP Print Post

Over 650 Scientists Challenge Global Warming “Consensus”

http://www.prisonplanet.com/over-650-scientists-challenge-global-warming-consens us.html
If you can be told what you can see or read....then it follows that you can be told what to say or think.
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sonorK
Senior Member
Username: sonork

Post Number: 840
Registered: 6-2002
Posted on Thursday, December 11, 2008 - 6:13 pm:   Edit Post Delete Post View Post/Check IP Print Post

Isn't there any Global Warming disciples in here to defend Hansen, the GISS and IPCC?

Didn't think so. I wonder if Hansen will get BACK on the Ice Age train next???
"She's good lookin'." Joe Biden's first comment about Sarah Palin.
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Chr15t05
Senior Member
Username: chr15t05

Post Number: 1191
Registered: 8-2004
Posted on Thursday, December 11, 2008 - 10:09 pm:   Edit Post Delete Post View Post/Check IP Print Post

Hey SonorK, good to see you mate.

In truth I find that both sides of this debate somewhat overplay their hands and manipulate their data to promote their specific agenda. If you ask them I'm sure they'd both argue that the other side started it. Such is life.


Chris
"There are two ways to be fooled. One is to believe what isn't true; the other is to refuse to believe what is true."
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Edwina!
Member
Username: mad_queen_edwina

Post Number: 87
Registered: 10-2004
Posted on Tuesday, December 23, 2008 - 5:12 pm:   Edit Post Delete Post View Post/Check IP Print Post

Hey, SonorK!

Well, this "disciple" of Global Warming ain't gonna defend Hansen especially when he said it was the WARMEST October on record! It seems to me that due to the lack of sunspots (a new Bush-Obama Minimum rivaling the Maunder Minimum ca. 1670?) and wobbles in the Earth's orbit it's supposed to get half-a-degree colder than it's ever been during the Little Ice Age. If we're lucky, maybe all the extra See-Oh-Two in the atmosphere will keep it from getting even colder! Brrrrh!!!

(Message edited by mad_queen_edwina on December 23, 2008)
Liberty or Death!
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sonorK
Senior Member
Username: sonork

Post Number: 842
Registered: 6-2002
Posted on Wednesday, December 24, 2008 - 12:20 pm:   Edit Post Delete Post View Post/Check IP Print Post

Merry Christmas you two. Have a good one and I'll you guys for part of next year ;)
"She's good lookin'." Joe Biden's first comment about Sarah Palin.
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Chr15t05
Senior Member
Username: chr15t05

Post Number: 1193
Registered: 8-2004
Posted on Saturday, December 27, 2008 - 6:17 pm:   Edit Post Delete Post View Post/Check IP Print Post

World Crops Threatened by Strengthening La Nina Weather Pattern

Grain and oilseed crops may be threatened next year by a weather pattern known as La Nina, according to a private forecaster.

La Nina conditions have developed rapidly across the equatorial Pacific Ocean during the past few weeks, said Drew Lerner, president of World Weather Inc. in Overland Park, Kansas. He said that may indicate more dry weather in parts of South America in the next three months and a wet, cold start to the U.S. planting season in March.

La Nina, which means “the little girl” in Spanish, is caused by lower-than-normal surface-water temperatures in the Pacific. It can trigger widespread changes in weather around the world, including a higher-than-normal number of hurricanes in the Atlantic Ocean, Lerner said.

“The impact of La Nina conditions has already been noted in many areas, with more frequent rain in eastern Australia, wet weather in Indonesia, Malaysia and the Philippines as well as a drier bias in southeastern parts of South America,” Lerner said in a Dec. 24 interview. “Confidence is quite strong that a full blown La Nina event is evolving.”

The current weather patterns are more similar to a mature La Nina instead of a developing event because the last episode faded in May, leaving behind residual atmospheric conditions, Lerner said. The pocket of unusually cool Pacific water has quickly expanded west and extends to a greater depth than usual, signaling a stronger impact on next year’s weather, he said.

“The colder surface temperatures become relative to normal, the higher the potential for La Nina and the stronger the event might become,” Lerner said. “Below-average precipitation will continue in eastern Argentina, Uruguay, far southern Brazil and a part of Paraguay, but not necessarily a full-blown drought and major crop losses.”

Stronger La Nina

The latest forecasts from the U.S. National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration are now predicting a stronger La Nina event next year compared with projections a month ago, Lerner said. Conditions indicate that this La Nina also will last for an extended period, increasing the crop risks in both South America and in the U.S., Lerner said.

(Article continues...)
"There are two ways to be fooled. One is to believe what isn't true; the other is to refuse to believe what is true."
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Chr15t05
Senior Member
Username: chr15t05

Post Number: 1205
Registered: 8-2004
Posted on Wednesday, January 07, 2009 - 5:07 am:   Edit Post Delete Post View Post/Check IP Print Post

Global Cooling Reason for Putin Shutting off Gas Pipeline

It’s not often that meteorology intersects with geopolitics – but Europe could be in store for another Cold War, literally.

Accuweather.com’s chief long-range and hurricane forecaster Joe Bastardi observed that Russian Prime Minister Vladimir Putin’s recent cut of gas flows to Europe via Ukraine may have been done so in anticipation of a global cooling cycle on the Jan. 6 “Glenn Beck Show” radio program. Bastardi has a solid reputation among Wall Street traders for understanding weather’s impact on energy commodities.

“The thing I want to bring up here – very interesting – most of the solar cycle studies that we know about and that guys like me read have come out of the Russian scientists,” Bastardi said. “But when Glasnost developed, the Russian scientists, a lot of their ideas on the coming cool period that a lot of us believe is going to occur – ice, rather than fire is the big problem down the road here 2030, 2040, and the reversing cyclical cycles of the ocean – it came out of the East.”

According to Bastardi – Putin is relying on the data from the Russian scientists and wants to bring some European nations to their knees by exploiting their reliance on natural gas when the weather is at its coldest.

“Now my theory – something that I put out and it’s something that’s not something that people want to hear is that Putin knows what is going to happen – or he believes the same way I do about the overall climate pattern. So, if you control the pipeline into Europe, you literally can control Europe without firing a shot – if you control the energy.”

(Article Continues...)
"There are two ways to be fooled. One is to believe what isn't true; the other is to refuse to believe what is true."
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Chr15t05
Senior Member
Username: chr15t05

Post Number: 1214
Registered: 8-2004
Posted on Sunday, January 11, 2009 - 3:46 am:   Edit Post Delete Post View Post/Check IP Print Post

La Nina conditions seen continuing: NOAA
"There are two ways to be fooled. One is to believe what isn't true; the other is to refuse to believe what is true."
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shedmyskin
Senior Member
Username: shedmyskin

Post Number: 1264
Registered: 1-2007
Posted on Monday, January 19, 2009 - 12:49 pm:   Edit Post Delete Post View Post/Check IP Print Post

The green agenda
http://www.green-agenda.com/globalrevolution.html

A plot to use a climate shift they knew was coming in order to create global government with no democratic ideals designed to control everyone?
If you can be told what you can see or read....then it follows that you can be told what to say or think.
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miaree9
Senior Member
Username: miaree9

Post Number: 2388
Registered: 5-2005
Posted on Wednesday, January 21, 2009 - 7:03 pm:   Edit Post Delete Post View Post/Check IP Print Post

I saw this headline today and wondered if any of you guys had any info on the research: Antarctica study challenges warming skeptics.

From the article:

Challenging warming skeptics who note that parts of Antarctica have gotten colder, researchers on Wednesday reported that overall the continent has gotten warmer since the 1950s, and that even those colder spots would be warmer were it not for the ozone hole.