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sonorK
Senior Member
Username: sonork

Post Number: 554
Registered: 6-2002
Posted on Wednesday, March 19, 2008 - 12:23 pm:   Edit Post Delete Post View Post/Check IP Print Post

The Mystery of Global Warming's Missing Heat

Morning Edition, March 19, 2008 · Some 3,000 scientific robots that are plying the ocean have sent home a puzzling message. These diving instruments suggest that the oceans have not warmed up at all over the past four or five years. That could mean global warming has taken a breather. Or it could mean scientists aren't quite understanding what their robots are telling them.

This is puzzling in part because here on the surface of the Earth, the years since 2003 have been some of the hottest on record. But Josh Willis at NASA's Jet Propulsion Laboratory says the oceans are what really matter when it comes to global warming.

In fact, 80 percent to 90 percent of global warming involves heating up ocean waters. They hold much more heat than the atmosphere can. So Willis has been studying the ocean with a fleet of robotic instruments called the Argo system. The buoys can dive 3,000 feet down and measure ocean temperature. Since the system was fully deployed in 2003, it has recorded no warming of the global oceans.........
"In Iran, we do not have this phenomenon. I don't know who's told you that we have it." - Mahmoud Aquavelvajad
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Chr15t05
Senior Member
Username: chr15t05

Post Number: 1045
Registered: 8-2004
Posted on Wednesday, March 19, 2008 - 6:27 pm:   Edit Post Delete Post View Post/Check IP Print Post

From the above article:

quote:

Sea level rises when the oceans get warm because warmer water expands. This accounts for about half of global sea level rise. So with the oceans not warming, you would expect to see less sea level rise. Instead, sea level has risen about half an inch in the past four years. That's a lot.

Willis says some of this water is apparently coming from a recent increase in the melting rate of glaciers in Greenland and Antarctica.

"But in fact there's a little bit of a mystery. We can't account for all of the sea level increase we've seen over the last three or four years," he says.


Call me crazy, but IMO this would seem to add some validation to the perspective that IPCC's documented sea-level rise has been overstated and is, at least in part, based on poorly collected data (more information). Occam's razor would seem to apply.

Chris
"There are two ways to be fooled. One is to believe what isn't true; the other is to refuse to believe what is true."
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sonorK
Senior Member
Username: sonork

Post Number: 556
Registered: 6-2002
Posted on Thursday, March 20, 2008 - 9:22 am:   Edit Post Delete Post View Post/Check IP Print Post

It is very interesting. All the more reason to understand that we really don't understand it.

And - from the political end, all the more reason to not enact policy to 'fix' something we clearly don't understand. Stay the course on pollution reduction and better technology, but not get crazy about it.
"In Iran, we do not have this phenomenon. I don't know who's told you that we have it." - Mahmoud Aquavelvajad
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animalspirits
Senior Member
Username: animalspiritstalstarcom

Post Number: 2654
Registered: 10-2006
Posted on Thursday, March 20, 2008 - 10:03 pm:   Edit Post Delete Post View Post/Check IP Print Post

Our winter has been so warm that the Squirrels, who normally are done with their babies around November just kept on having them all 'winter' long...and have begun the Spring season already.

The birds are on their nests 2-3 weeks early this year, which means I will be getting them in any day.


Understand that all things are sacred--yet nothing is sacred.

~Yotee Coyote
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animalspirits
Senior Member
Username: animalspiritstalstarcom

Post Number: 2655
Registered: 10-2006
Posted on Thursday, March 20, 2008 - 10:12 pm:   Edit Post Delete Post View Post/Check IP Print Post

I am very skeptical of the ability to adequately measure the temperature of the Oceans. It depends on where they are doing the readings and how deep they are going.

If the very deep trenches are warming, that is not a good thing as those waters cool the oceans of the world...so much water, so little research...and probably selective at best.

The ability to put the necessary resources into this project is diminished by the massive spending elsewhere in places that are far from the Oceans.
Understand that all things are sacred--yet nothing is sacred.

~Yotee Coyote
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animalspirits
Senior Member
Username: animalspiritstalstarcom

Post Number: 2656
Registered: 10-2006
Posted on Thursday, March 20, 2008 - 10:16 pm:   Edit Post Delete Post View Post/Check IP Print Post

Arctic losing long-term ice cover

http://news.bbc.co.uk/2/hi/science/nature/7303385.stm
Understand that all things are sacred--yet nothing is sacred.

~Yotee Coyote
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Chr15t05
Senior Member
Username: chr15t05

Post Number: 1046
Registered: 8-2004
Posted on Thursday, March 20, 2008 - 10:36 pm:   Edit Post Delete Post View Post/Check IP Print Post

AS, you're in Florida, right? If so, you can attribute your mild winter and early spring to La Niña, just as the north faces the prospect of six more weeks of winter for the very same reason. Similarly, here in Australia La Niña has caused the north to have a very mild, wet summer while the south has been warmer than average. However, overall global temperatures have seem a marked decrease during this period. Expect these kinds of conditions to continue while the pacific ocean remains cooler than average. While expectations are that La Niña is beginning to end according to its normal schedule, at least one climatologist is refuting this, claiming that it is presently stronger than ever, with projected impacts on the summer growing season.

Chris

(Message edited by Chr15t05 on March 20, 2008)
"There are two ways to be fooled. One is to believe what isn't true; the other is to refuse to believe what is true."
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Chr15t05
Senior Member
Username: chr15t05

Post Number: 1047
Registered: 8-2004
Posted on Thursday, March 20, 2008 - 10:43 pm:   Edit Post Delete Post View Post/Check IP Print Post


quote:

I am very skeptical of the ability to adequately measure the temperature of the Oceans. It depends on where they are doing the readings and how deep they are going.




I believe normal Sea Surface Temperature readings from boys are only indicative of the top 30 meters or so. As far as I am aware there is no indication of warming in the ocean trenches. It takes a long time to warm the oceans from the top down, simply due to the fact that warm water will generally sit on top of cold water.

Chris
"There are two ways to be fooled. One is to believe what isn't true; the other is to refuse to believe what is true."
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Chr15t05
Senior Member
Username: chr15t05

Post Number: 1048
Registered: 8-2004
Posted on Thursday, March 20, 2008 - 10:55 pm:   Edit Post Delete Post View Post/Check IP Print Post

Regarding the arctic losing it's long-term ice, it's true that 2007 saw record losses. However, it remains to be seen how much of the new ice will be lost this summer. At this point my honest opinion is that it could go either way. Short term ice becomes long-term ice if it survives a few summers of melting, which is exactly what happened after the melting of the 1930s and 40s. However, the arctic is renowned for large fluctuations that make it difficult to identify trends, so I guess we will just have to wait and see.

Chris
"There are two ways to be fooled. One is to believe what isn't true; the other is to refuse to believe what is true."
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animalspirits
Senior Member
Username: animalspiritstalstarcom

Post Number: 2660
Registered: 10-2006
Posted on Friday, March 21, 2008 - 7:53 am:   Edit Post Delete Post View Post/Check IP Print Post

Chris,

Nope, this is not from La Nina. We get those all the time.
Understand that all things are sacred--yet nothing is sacred.

~Yotee Coyote
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Chr15t05
Senior Member
Username: chr15t05

Post Number: 1050
Registered: 8-2004
Posted on Friday, March 21, 2008 - 8:13 am:   Edit Post Delete Post View Post/Check IP Print Post

I'm not sure what you mean. La Niña affects the entire pacific/atlantic region. The last one was 7-8 years ago, in 2000-2001, but it was very minor. The one we are presently experiencing is moderate to strong. 1995 was also a La Niña year, as was 1988, but I don't think they are so frequent as to say they happen "all the time". You may be confusing La Niña with El Niño, which is the opposite extreme within the same cycle.

Chris
"There are two ways to be fooled. One is to believe what isn't true; the other is to refuse to believe what is true."
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animalspirits
Senior Member
Username: animalspiritstalstarcom

Post Number: 2661
Registered: 10-2006
Posted on Friday, March 21, 2008 - 8:25 am:   Edit Post Delete Post View Post/Check IP Print Post

Chris,

I am not confused about anything.

I know what La Nina and El Nino are for God's sake...and whether they are strong or weak as they affect the hurricanes/rainfall we get here. I am a Biologist/Chemist that has lived in Florida for 67 years. I know my Florida wildlife too.

Also, don't give me years and strengths as I have lived through those already. It is just a waste of your time.
Understand that all things are sacred--yet nothing is sacred.

~Yotee Coyote
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Chr15t05
Senior Member
Username: chr15t05

Post Number: 1053
Registered: 8-2004
Posted on Friday, March 21, 2008 - 8:33 am:   Edit Post Delete Post View Post/Check IP Print Post

My apologies. I was simply confused by your wording. I meant no offense. I have also lived through the above years, just on the opposite side of the Pacific.

Chris
"There are two ways to be fooled. One is to believe what isn't true; the other is to refuse to believe what is true."
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brit
Intermediate Member
Username: clicker

Post Number: 114
Registered: 3-2001
Posted on Sunday, March 23, 2008 - 9:23 am:   Edit Post Delete Post View Post/Check IP Print Post

We've had no snow at all, all winter here in southern UK. It's just turned spring and now we have snow. Doh!

Anyway, I was deeply depressed after seeing Al Gore's film and for the last few years I believed human activity to be causing climat change. Now I'm not so sure - about either. Check out this for example:

http://scienceandpublicpolicy.org/images/stories/papers/monckton/monckton-gores_ 10_errors_old_and_new.pdf

Also the UK courts ruled that 9 important errors had to be edited out of Gore's film before it could be shown to school children over here. What's he up to? Is he just mistaken? It is just sloppy research? Whatever, he still keeps repeating the same errors all over the world.

I am now of the opinion that the jury is indeed still out regarding climate change being caused by humans.

The 'hockey stick' graph is no longer used or is widely discredited. Hundreds of scientists whose names appeared on the IPCC report have requested their names be taken off.

Check out Australian prof Bob Carter for an unbiased view of climate change, rather than those of political entities like Gore and the IPCC.

Remember, climate change presents a truly wonderful opportunity for those who want to interfere with and control our lives. I would be very wary of this before simply agreeing with every, increasingly draconian, measure they advocate.

Also, the climate is always changing. To do otherwise would be un-natural.
"I know that human beings and fish can co-exist peacefully" - President George Bush
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shedmyskin
Senior Member
Username: shedmyskin

Post Number: 739
Registered: 1-2007
Posted on Sunday, March 23, 2008 - 12:13 pm:   Edit Post Delete Post View Post/Check IP Print Post

more on reasons to be cautious about Al Gore's claims...lol al gore.....LOOK OUT!! its man bear pig!http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=FYRpPybd2Mg
http://www.prisonplanet.com/articles/march2008/230308Climate.htm
If you can be told what you can see or read....then it follows that you can be told what to say or think.
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brit
Intermediate Member
Username: clicker

Post Number: 115
Registered: 3-2001
Posted on Sunday, March 23, 2008 - 5:57 pm:   Edit Post Delete Post View Post/Check IP Print Post

Thanks for the links shed. We humans love to be scared by something all the time don't we?

Here's another link from the second one you posted:

http://video.google.com/videoplay?docid=-3309910462407994295

Just to be clear, i'm not denying climate change is happening, but I do question how guilty we all have to feel about it. Sunspots seem to have more to do with it for example.

It's funny, 'The Day After Tomorrow' was on TV here last night. Great film but...
"I know that human beings and fish can co-exist peacefully" - President George Bush
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Chr15t05
Senior Member
Username: chr15t05

Post Number: 1055
Registered: 8-2004
Posted on Sunday, March 23, 2008 - 7:26 pm:   Edit Post Delete Post View Post/Check IP Print Post

brit, I do agree that the jury is still out on Anthropogenic Climate Change, but if there's a totally unbiased viewpoint out there I'm yet to find it. It has been my observation that most (if not all) of the vocal spokespeople from either camp are simply peddling the views of their political association. It's a rather odd way for science to behave, but then this is the swamp we've created. IMO, to actually get close to the real story requires understanding both arguments and then splitting the difference. Here's an example from the Prison Planet article posted above, which contains a transcript originally heard on ABC Radio (Australia):


quote:

Duffy: "Can you tell us about NASA's Aqua satellite, because I understand some of the data we're now getting is quite important in our understanding of how climate works?"

Marohasy: "That's right. The satellite was only launched in 2002 and it enabled the collection of data, not just on temperature but also on cloud formation and water vapour. What all the climate models suggest is that, when you've got warming from additional carbon dioxide, this will result in increased water vapour, so you're going to get a positive feedback. That's what the models have been indicating. What this great data from the NASA Aqua satellite ... (is) actually showing is just the opposite, that with a little bit of warming, weather processes are compensating, so they're actually limiting the greenhouse effect and you're getting a negative rather than a positive feedback."

Duffy: "The climate is actually, in one way anyway, more robust than was assumed in the climate models?"

Marohasy: "That's right ... These findings actually aren't being disputed by the meteorological community. They're having trouble digesting the findings, they're acknowledging the findings, they're acknowledging that the data from NASA's Aqua satellite is not how the models predict, and I think they're about to recognise that the models really do need to be overhauled and that when they are overhauled they will probably show greatly reduced future warming projected as a consequence of carbon dioxide."


I've been looking into this ever since I saw the original transcript because a positive H2O feedback is so vital to AGW theory. It is difficult to imagine how it could survive if a negative feedback was confirmed. However, the only evidence I've been able to find regarding NASA's Aqua satellite and its measurements of H2O feedback comes from 2002 (my emphasis):


quote:

A NASA-funded study found some climate models might be overestimating the amount of water vapor entering the atmosphere as the Earth warms. Since water vapor is the most important heat-trapping greenhouse gas in our atmosphere, some climate forecasts may be overestimating future temperature increases.

...

Their work verified water vapor is increasing in the atmosphere as the surface warms. They found the increases in water vapor were not as high as many climate-forecasting computer models have assumed. "Our study confirms the existence of a positive water vapor feedback in the atmosphere, but it may be weaker than we expected," Minschwaner said.


So as you can see, the reality is actually quite a bit more complicated. A positive feedback has been confirmed, but it's not nearly as strong as it should be according to models, or at least not that has so far been able to be measured empirically. As with most of the public statements made in this field (from either side), it's difficult to determine whether the spokesperson was being intentionally misleading, or simply spoke incorrectly based on their own limited understanding, or is just too caught up in overly politicised science to understand the difference.

Chris
"There are two ways to be fooled. One is to believe what isn't true; the other is to refuse to believe what is true."
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animalspirits
Senior Member
Username: animalspiritstalstarcom

Post Number: 2676
Registered: 10-2006
Posted on Sunday, March 23, 2008 - 7:39 pm:   Edit Post Delete Post View Post/Check IP Print Post

...and that is if you trust NASA to tell you the truth.
Understand that all things are sacred--yet nothing is sacred.

~Yotee Coyote
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merovee
Intermediate Member
Username: merovee

Post Number: 122
Registered: 7-2002
Posted on Monday, March 24, 2008 - 1:45 am:   Edit Post Delete Post View Post/Check IP Print Post

Warming or cooling, you can't deny there is a change happening in the cycle that we have been used to for most of recorded history.

They should just call it "climate change" not global warming, because that will be the final result of all of our meddling...and supposed progress.
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brit
Intermediate Member
Username: clicker

Post Number: 116
Registered: 3-2001
Posted on Monday, March 24, 2008 - 6:02 am:   Edit Post Delete Post View Post/Check IP Print Post

Agreed. The climate IS changing, as it always has. What IS up for debate though, is whether we are causing it or not. And the answer to that is unknown at the moment. In fact newer data suggests that we are not to blame.

For example in the documentary I linked to it says 'yes we are in a warming period right now but from what level?' Well in fact we are warming up from one of the coolest levels in recent history. So that's good in fact.

It also mentions sea levels. Take the Maldives. As recently as the nineteen seventies sea levels fell dramatically in this area (20-30cms). So even though they are rising now it is, again, from a historically low level.

As a programmer myself, what worries me is the unshakable faith some scientists put in their nice shiny software models. I wouldn't be so smug if I was them. Besides, observational data doesn't seem to agree.

And I fully agree with Chr15t05, the reality IS more complicated. Which is why it is so worrying that politicians have come to such simplistic (and rapid) conclusions and now try and regulate our lives as a result.

In fact, I am so suspicious of their meddling that I am going to make sure my next car is an SUV.

However, most of all, I am going to stop feeling so damned guilty all the time.
"I know that human beings and fish can co-exist peacefully" - President George Bush
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fortwynt
Senior Member
Username: fortwynt

Post Number: 4902
Registered: 12-2006
Posted on Monday, March 24, 2008 - 6:17 am:   Edit Post Delete Post View Post/Check IP Print Post

Yeah, you may as well not, that's my take. Informed choices are one thing, but being made to feel like a living rubbish factory is beyond all that I consider fair.
...Hungry people don't stay hungry for long...they get hope from fire and smoke as the weak grow strong...
R.A.T.M
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merovee
Intermediate Member
Username: merovee

Post Number: 123
Registered: 7-2002
Posted on Monday, March 24, 2008 - 12:13 pm:   Edit Post Delete Post View Post/Check IP Print Post

I don't think we DON'T have an influence on the weather, though.

We definitely do. Don't take it personally. Instead, figure out ways to lighten up your influence if it is reasonable possible. Unfortunately most humans idea of what is reasonable for them depends on selfishness alone.
This is why I fear we will self destruct.

Things are about to change more and selfishness will have to become a thing of the past to survive as a species. Have we not learned anything with these enormous reasoning brains over tens of thousands of years. Is it still just tit for tat?

To deny there is an effect from us at all on the environment is preposterous. Have you ever lived in a large city? I have, and in the summer the heat it radiates creates a shield which actually prevents rain from falling on the city. It actually affects weather patterns. I have even seen large storms be deflected due to it. With NO RAIN FALLING. It is generally 10 degrees hotter in a city. Hotter even than the weather forecast, which is usually made for the suburbs.

Also there could be amovement to put gardens on top of buildings, and it would be great if developers woulf understand that it is a bad idea to build over the nature and parks that draw people to a city in the first place. Not just because that was what caused the purchasers to be interested in the first place but because the plants help keep that temperature down.

Convenience and money need to be unlearned as forms of stimulation or we will die.

Maybe you don't care because yo wion't, but what of your children?

It is wrong to buy a gas guzzler out of spite. So what if you feel it can't be proved, do you NEED IT!!! Or do you just feel it adds to your status. I have an escape, which is the smallest size I need and it has a small engine, and gets awesome gas mileage. If I could afford it without starving I would have bought a hybrid.Maybe next time around. Bigger cars aren't safer, they take longer to stop and maneuver.

I also try to bring my own bags to the grocery store.

If we CAN do it better why are we not? Greed and laziness. It will kill us. Think about the larger picture for once.
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brit
Intermediate Member
Username: clicker

Post Number: 117
Registered: 3-2001
Posted on Monday, March 24, 2008 - 5:16 pm:   Edit Post Delete Post View Post/Check IP Print Post

All good points merovee and I agree with your sentiments entirely. Cities do indeed create changes in their local climate. It's interesting to note that part of the reason the data we have re: warming is wrong, is because the ground thermometers used are often located in cities, which have caused them to read abnormally high temperatures.

That said, of course it's a good idea to minimise our impact on the environment in all sorts of ways. We shouldn't pollute any more than we have to. We shouldn't festoon the countryside and seas with plastic bags and befoul the air with noxious gases. Nor should we rape and pillage the earth's resources as if there's no tomorrow. This is all sensible stuff.

I also wonder how much closer we would be to having a completely new energy source if the US hadn't spent three trillion dollars on a half-arsed adventure in someone else's country. Just imagine how much research could have been done with THAT much!

I'd also be happy to drive a car propelled by cleaner energy. I'm not that much of a petrol head! My remarks about owning an SUV were slightly tongue in cheek. (the Toyota RAV4 isn't that big though and does 32mpg. Nice.)

But where I do slightly disagree is that money and selfishness are going to send us all to hell. Selfishness is what got us out of the primeval swamps after all.

And money can be made with 'greener' technology - no problem. Other countries are demonstrating this as we speak with some very ingenius, money making innovations.

It is, perhaps, because oil men run the show in the US that government policy isn't doing more in that direction. However, it is gratifying to see that plain old commercial expediency is driving change within US industry - despite a fossil-fuel oriented administration run by a bunch of old fossils.

One day soon they'll be gone and then perhaps we can move on - but not with the likes of Al Gore who will just put us in legislative strait-jackets and tell us all to stay at home. I want my hover car and aluminium foil overalls like we were promised in the sixties.
"I know that human beings and fish can co-exist peacefully" - President George Bush
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Chr15t05
Senior Member
Username: chr15t05

Post Number: 1057
Registered: 8-2004
Posted on Monday, March 24, 2008 - 9:15 pm:   Edit Post Delete Post View Post/Check IP Print Post


quote:

I want my hover car and aluminium foil overalls like we were promised in the sixties.


I'd settle for a hoverboard, I've been waiting decades for that kind of tech! The longer it takes the more foolish I'm going to look riding it.

Chris
"There are two ways to be fooled. One is to believe what isn't true; the other is to refuse to believe what is true."
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animalspirits
Senior Member
Username: animalspiritstalstarcom

Post Number: 2680
Registered: 10-2006
Posted on Monday, March 24, 2008 - 9:50 pm:   Edit Post Delete Post View Post/Check IP Print Post

Chris,

..and the one for me will have to have a forklift with it...and some serious lift.


Understand that all things are sacred--yet nothing is sacred.

~Yotee Coyote
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Chr15t05
Senior Member
Username: chr15t05

Post Number: 1058
Registered: 8-2004
Posted on Tuesday, March 25, 2008 - 2:38 am:   Edit Post Delete Post View Post/Check IP Print Post

AS!

Looks like there's more weather craziness to come:

La Niña heightens flood risk this spring in Northeast U.S.

WASHINGTON — Government forecasters said Thursday that the floods washing over large parts of the Midwest are just a taste of things to come, with one meteorologist complaining about a jet stream "on steroids."

Record rainfall and melting snow packs will continue to cause rivers to overflow across an arcing swath of America from Texas to Maine, the National Weather Service said.

The greatest flooding danger includes much of the Mississippi River basin, the Ohio River basin, the lower Missouri River basin, Pennsylvania, New Jersey, most of New York and all of New England. Colorado and Idaho are also at risk.

"Overall moisture is unprecedented for this time of year over an area that extends over 1,000 miles," said Doug LeComte, a meteorologist at the government's Climate Prediction Center.

Joanna Dionne, a meteorologist at the weather service's Hydrologic Services section, added that "all the ingredients are there for flooding in this broad area and up into the Northeast."

"American citizens should be on high alert to flood conditions in your communities," said Vickie Nadolski, deputy director of the weather service.

Heavy rains have dumped as much as a foot of rain in the Midwest this week, leaving behind more than a dozen deaths. Rivers were cresting above flood stage in Ohio, and flooding also was reported in parts of Arkansas, southern Illinois, southern Indiana, Missouri and Kentucky.

LeComte noted that a La Niña, an unusual cooling of the tropical Pacific Ocean, has been under way, and that often leads to wetter conditions in the U.S. Midwest.

However, he added, "what's happened in the last few months has not been a typical La Niña. The jet stream's been on steroids."

The spring flood forecast said current snow depth in some areas of upstate New York and New England is more than a foot greater than usual for this time of the year, which increases flood potential in the Connecticut River Valley.

"There are two ways to be fooled. One is to believe what isn't true; the other is to refuse to believe what is true."
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animalspirits
Senior Member
Username: animalspiritstalstarcom

Post Number: 2681
Registered: 10-2006
Posted on Tuesday, March 25, 2008 - 7:08 am:   Edit Post Delete Post View Post/Check IP Print Post

...and for those of us in Florida, it means less rain and more drought.
Understand that all things are sacred--yet nothing is sacred.

~Yotee Coyote
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brit
Intermediate Member
Username: clicker

Post Number: 118
Registered: 3-2001
Posted on Tuesday, March 25, 2008 - 4:29 pm:   Edit Post Delete Post View Post/Check IP Print Post

This sort of stuff is one of the reasons I am now keeping a more open mind about the whole climate change thing, instead of automatically subscribing to the ohmigod-we're-all-gonna-die line of thought.

http://www.nationalpost.com/opinion/columnists/story.html?id=8926a1d3-f43f-4f8b- 811d-0a0daa3e1012&k=39580

You have to admit, we simply must accept new data as it comes along and be prepared to change our minds if it points in a different direction. To do otherwise would be dogma.

Here's another interesting little factoid that often gets overlooked: why is Greenland called that? Because it was once green that's why. North Sea peoples lived there happily, which is why it is under Danish jurisdiction. Now if that's the case, that's an awful lot of ice that simply wasn't there at one time - yet mankind lived and thrived. So if the entire Greenland icesheet was to disappear the world simply would not come to an end as some people seem to believe. The world has been much warmer in the past and CO2 levels have been much higher and yet life thrived. Hmmm.
"I know that human beings and fish can co-exist peacefully" - President George Bush
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zendor
Senior Member
Username: wizardofoz

Post Number: 518
Registered: 5-2003
Posted on Wednesday, March 26, 2008 - 4:49 am:   Edit Post Delete Post View Post/Check IP Print Post

The name Greenland was more for marketing than an accurate description. It was never all green , in fact about 80% if it has been ice cover for a very long time.
See wikipedia greenland history

The name Greenland comes from Scandinavian settlers. In the Icelandic sagas, it is said that Norwegian-born Erik the Red was exiled from Iceland for murder. He, along with his extended family and thralls, set out in ships to find the land that was rumoured to be to the northwest. After settling there, he named the land Grænland ("Greenland"), possibly in order to attract more people to settle there.[5] Greenland was also called Gruntland ("Ground-land") and Engronelant (or Engroneland) on early maps. Whether green is an erroneous transcription of grunt ("ground"), which refers to shallow bays, or vice versa, is not known. It should also be noted, however, that the southern portion of Greenland (not covered by glacier) is indeed very green in the summer and was likely to have been even greener in Erik's time because of the Medieval Warm Period.

The ice cover 1000 years ago was more or less what it is now. This leads to the valid point that it seems like at least this part of the world 1000 years ago was at least as warm as the present, if not warmer.

If the Greenland ice sheet was to go then sea levels would rise by about 7 meters. This would be a very big deal. CSIRO sea level rise
"Unthinking respect for authority is the greatest enemy of truth." -Albert Einstein
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brit
Intermediate Member
Username: clicker

Post Number: 119
Registered: 3-2001
Posted on Wednesday, March 26, 2008 - 8:51 am:   Edit Post Delete Post View Post/Check IP Print Post

Thank you zendor. I stand corrected.

I think, what with Medieval Warm Periods and Little Ice Ages (which came just after), it's obvious that our climate fluctuates quite considerably over time, with or without our input. After all, these periods happened without any human input whatsoever. Just think about that.

If we were to enter a medieval warm period now (which may be happening in fact) people would be screaming that 'it's us!' and pulling their hair out, when in fact it would be just a natural event.

Now that the 'hockey stick' graph has been widely discredited we can be sure that an increase in temperature or CO2 is not artificial or indeed particularly unusual.

Also, the IPCC, which started all this fuss, is quietly back-tracking on some of it's claims. I say 'quietly' because no-one sees it on the news. Contrast that with the latest glacier melting for example.

This article is worth a read too:

http://www.thetrumpet.com/index.php?q=4940.3199.0.0

I'm not sticking my head in the sand about all this. For years I felt like everyone else, that we needed to do something about it. It's just that these days more than ever, data and the scientists who interpret it, are adding to the picture and giving us more of an idea of what's going on.
"I know that human beings and fish can co-exist peacefully" - President George Bush
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zendor
Senior Member
Username: wizardofoz

Post Number: 519
Registered: 5-2003
Posted on Wednesday, March 26, 2008 - 8:55 am:   Edit Post Delete Post View Post/Check IP Print Post

It is not just a matter of life thriving, we have to be able to live and thrive in the new environment that we might be having a hand in creating

We forget how delicate our existence here is. The thing we need most is the air we breathe -- if the composition of the air changes dramatically then we wont survive.

In the Jurassic (earth was a hot tropical world) life was plentiful, but if we teleported back there we would be dead in minutes -- the air mix just would not sustain us, far too much oxygen and at high pressure. Of the 4.5 Billion years our little planet has been here only some millions of years ( less than 0.1% of the planets lifetime) has the air be suitable for us to breathe.

We are all used to seeing Star Trek and Stargate where everywhere our TV heroes go the alien planets that look a lot like California or Canada and the Stars go about in overalls or T-Shirts without any problems or experiencing atmospheric pressure changes when they teleoprt or go through their wormhole. This of course cuts the costs of producing TV SiFi drama, but the reality is that they would have to wear suits everywhere they went. Going back in time on earth would be the same - we would need suits to survive. We need a very special environment to survive and it is not likely to be anywhere else, or any time else on our little green home.

No matter what happens life will go on. But we may not be able to be a part of it.
"Unthinking respect for authority is the greatest enemy of truth." -Albert Einstein
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zendor
Senior Member
Username: wizardofoz

Post Number: 520
Registered: 5-2003
Posted on Wednesday, March 26, 2008 - 9:14 am:   Edit Post Delete Post View Post/Check IP Print Post

brit, You are quite right in saying the climate has cycles and it has been warmer in the past. The big question is how much our activities are causing the present warming.

I think the argument made for AGM is often too simplistic and overplays the evidence, but that does not mean it has no merit. I have been arguing the case for AGM on this forum, but when discussing this with friends I often take the opposite points of view, most of which I have picked up here

My point of view is that whilst there is a reasonable change we are having an impact we should do something.

If AGM turns out to be totally wrong, and a big effort was made to reduce CO2 then we have got clearer air and less waste, which may not be so bad after all.
"Unthinking respect for authority is the greatest enemy of truth." -Albert Einstein
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Chr15t05
Senior Member
Username: chr15t05

Post Number: 1061
Registered: 8-2004
Posted on Wednesday, March 26, 2008 - 5:09 pm:   Edit Post Delete Post View Post/Check IP Print Post


quote:

Of the 4.5 Billion years our little planet has been here only some millions of years ( less than 0.1% of the planets lifetime) has the air be suitable for us to breathe.


Very true, and this is why tropical deforestation is one of the most ridiculously short-sighted actions in human history. IMO stabilizing the remaining great forests would have a much more pronounced effect on both global temperatures and precipitation than any reduction of human emissions. Heck, we should be doing both.

quote:

We are all used to seeing Star Trek and Stargate where everywhere our TV heroes go the alien planets that look a lot like California or Canada and the Stars go about in overalls or T-Shirts without any problems or experiencing atmospheric pressure changes when they teleoprt or go through their wormhole.


Well... ok... just so long as the aliens all look human and speak modern English...

quote:

If AGM turns out to be totally wrong, and a big effort was made to reduce CO2 then we have got clearer air and less waste, which may not be so bad after all.


I agree with this up to a point, but not when it comes to the oft' suggested "solution" of mass-implementing nuclear fission, which I believe would be an environmental disaster on a scale this planet has never before seen, and on a long enough timeline may actually endanger all life that exists here.

Chris

(Message edited by chr15t05 on March 26, 2008)
"There are two ways to be fooled. One is to believe what isn't true; the other is to refuse to believe what is true."
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Granny
Senior Member
Username: phar9

Post Number: 1176
Registered: 5-2004
Posted on Wednesday, March 26, 2008 - 8:27 pm:   Edit Post Delete Post View Post/Check IP Print Post

Guys ...

Click the link toward the bottom of this post (the one just above the signature for "Paul") on Eagles Forum ... look strange to anyone?

Antarctic Shelf Hangs by Thread

What do you think ... ???

Gran

(Message edited by phar9 on March 26, 2008)
Signing up for "War Kittens"
Think Or Be Eaten ...
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brit
Intermediate Member
Username: clicker

Post Number: 120
Registered: 3-2001
Posted on Thursday, March 27, 2008 - 4:35 am:   Edit Post Delete Post View Post/Check IP Print Post

Yes zendor, I appreciate that climates in pre-historic times were very different to now but we have had some very different climates within human history too. So different in fact that if they happened now there would be much wailing and gnashing of teeth. And we didn't have any cars then.

I think you're right in concluding that there is doubt about the severity of human impact on the environment, because it is obvious that climate changes with or without us. And as I keep saying, the latest data throws new light on all this in any case. Even the IPCC are scratching their heads at this. And it is signifcant that many scientists, who do not have postions in the oil lobby, are distancing themselves from the initial hysteria.

Yet politicians are forging ahead with knee-jerk measures anyway - many of which will have little effect on the problem in any case. I fear that the whole climate change issue is in danger of being hi-jacked by those who see it as a golden opportunity for more repressive legislation.

And there's always those people who cannot stand affluence in any form and also see this as an excuse to restrict our lives to fit in with their own ascetic agendas. Again, with very little effect on the problem. We now see an unholy alliance between control-freak politicians and weave-your-own-yoghurt types who cannot stand anybody travelling further than ten miles - and then only by horse and cart.

If we take a step back a bit and look at the larger picture for a moment we have:

Terrorism,
Climate Change,
Starvation from using too much farmland for bio-fuels,
Diseases such as SARS, AIDS, Bird Flu etc. etc.

We lurch from one apocalyptic scenario to the next, frightened to death with the latest scare du jour. It's not how we should be living our lives.

And IMHO a lot of this hysteria is whipped up deliberately. Whether it's to sell newspapers or control our lives doesn't matter, we would do well to stop worrying about it all so much and take a look at all sides of any given argument. We may even find that everything is working out just as it should be.
"I know that human beings and fish can co-exist peacefully" - President George Bush
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zendor
Senior Member
Username: wizardofoz

Post Number: 521
Registered: 5-2003
Posted on Thursday, March 27, 2008 - 5:48 am:   Edit Post Delete Post View Post/Check IP Print Post

Granny,
I just love those straight lines and nice right angles. I have no idea why nature is so tidy when it comes to carving ice. I suspect it is something to do with the way a crack propagates through ice.
There are not that many examples of nature being so tidy, I will add this to my list.

Chris,
Nuclear also worried me. If we can get fission without plutonium as a byproduct I would be all in favor. Lets hope nuclear fusion is actually going to be available soon. (Fusion is making Helium out of Hydrogen not splitting Uranium)

Those aliens do seem to speak perfect standard English -- even in the pegeses galaxy,

Brit.
I have to agree that there are lots of things going on in the world that are more important than CO2 levels. I have to say that the depletion of The oceans fish and the the destruction of the amazon (and other) rainforest's are going to impact us far sooner than climate change.

I suspect that taking the AGM line for a lot of people and politicians is a way of getting some action of reducing our wasteful ways, rather than arguing that cutting down forest is bad, it is easier to waffle on about Carbon debt, it sound more pseudo scientific.
"Unthinking respect for authority is the greatest enemy of truth." -Albert Einstein
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Chr15t05
Senior Member
Username: chr15t05

Post Number: 1068
Registered: 8-2004
Posted on Wednesday, April 02, 2008 - 6:21 pm:   Edit Post Delete Post View Post/Check IP Print Post

Looks like La Niña is about to end:

La Nina Weakens Further


quote:

The Australian Bureau of Meteorologist says the La Nina event in the Pacific basin has continued to weaken during the past two weeks, with the surface of the equatorial Pacific warming by about 0.1 to 0.2°C.

"While western Pacific surface temperatures remain typical for a La Nina event, eastern Pacific temperatures have now been out of the La Nina range for the last five weeks," says the agency. "Below the surface, the cold water in the eastern Pacific has continued to warm and decrease in volume."

These observations from the eastern Pacific show a faster decline in La Nina conditions than was forecast by most computer models, they acknowledge. "Model predictions now show central to western Pacific temperatures warming back to the neutral range during the next one to three months. The models do not suggest El Nino conditions will return during 2008," says the agency.


Chris
"There are two ways to be fooled. One is to believe what isn't true; the other is to refuse to believe what is true."
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Chr15t05
Senior Member
Username: chr15t05

Post Number: 1071
Registered: 8-2004
Posted on Thursday, April 03, 2008 - 7:52 pm:   Edit Post Delete Post View Post/Check IP Print Post

Weakening La Nina points to mild U.S. Midwest summer

CHICAGO, April 3 (Reuters) - Forecasts for a weakening La Nina weather anomaly this spring and summer point toward a mild summer for most of the U.S. Corn Belt, meteorologists said at an agricultural conference late Wednesday.

That would be good news for U.S. farmers who are hoping for bumper crops of corn and soybeans this year after soaring global demand for grains drove prices to historic highs.

La Nina refers to an abnormal cooling of sea surface temperatures in the Pacific Ocean, while its counterpart El Nino refers to a warming of surface temperatures.

The resulting effects on global atmosphere affect climate in many countries, including key wheat, grain and oilseed regions of the U.S. Midwest, Great Plains and Southeast.

Meteorologists said one of the strongest La Ninas in years occurred over this past autumn and winter, contributing to exceptionally wet winter weather in the Midwest.

"We have been seeing it weakening recently. If we see that continue it will be like the year 2000 and ... a cooler summer overall," said Joel Widenor, meteorologist with MDA EarthSat Weather/Cropcast.

But several meteorologists said that in years when La Nina weakens during the spring, but stabilizes by summer, there's a tendency for the Midwest to see a warmer-than-normal summer.

The U.S. government's Climate Prediction Center said in its latest La Nina update on March 6 that the current La Nina is expected to weaken through June after moderate to strong conditions in March.

(Article Continues)
"There are two ways to be fooled. One is to believe what isn't true; the other is to refuse to believe what is true."
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zendor
Senior Member
Username: wizardofoz

Post Number: 523
Registered: 5-2003
Posted on Friday, April 04, 2008 - 7:25 am:   Edit Post Delete Post View Post/Check IP Print Post

For us in the land of oz, this is bad news. The east coast was getting more rain for the last year or so but there are still areas that have missed out on rain so far. I think that Brisbane (chr15t05's home town) has missed much of the rain with the dams still very low. We in Sydney have been more fortunate with the last 12 months being wetter than usual and our dams at 65%.

It feels like the "normal" La Nina <--> El Nino cycles have become skewed in favor of the La Nina in the past few decades. I have not found a plot of the these cycles for the past 50 or so years, and would be interested in seeing if such a trend exists.
"Unthinking respect for authority is the greatest enemy of truth." -Albert Einstein
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Chr15t05
Senior Member
Username: chr15t05

Post Number: 1077
Registered: 8-2004
Posted on Saturday, April 05, 2008 - 1:41 am:   Edit Post Delete Post View Post/Check IP Print Post

Yeah, bad news here in Bris Vegas. It's funny how we've come to think of 39% capacity as a good thing. Fortunately I think our desalination measures will give us a little more breathing room in the immediate future. And still, the population swells and the pools keep getting built. Kind of stupid, IMO.

Regarding the frequency of La Niñas, on a warming planet wouldn't the trend be towards more El Niños? According to wiki, 1986-1987, 1991-1992, 1993, 1994, 1997-1998, 2002-2003, 2004-2005 and 2006-2007 have all seen El Niños, with comparatively fewer La Niñas in 1988-1989, 1995, 1999-2001 plus this most recent.

Chris
"There are two ways to be fooled. One is to believe what isn't true; the other is to refuse to believe what is true."
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Chr15t05
Senior Member
Username: chr15t05

Post Number: 1089
Registered: 8-2004
Posted on Sunday, April 13, 2008 - 8:38 am:   Edit Post Delete Post View Post/Check IP Print Post

Looks like she's weakening but is going to persist for a few more months at least:

La Nina Expected To Continue For Next Three Months

La Nina is expected to continue for the next three months based on current atmospheric and oceanic conditions and recent trends, according to the US Climate Prediction Centre in its press release issued on Friday.

"Expected La Nina impacts during April-June include a continuation of above-average precipitation over Indonesia and below-average precipitation over the central equatorial Pacific," the statement said.

La Nina declined to moderate-strength during March 2008 as negative sea surface temperature (SST) anomalies weakened across the central and east-central equatorial Pacific.

Above-average SSTs remained restricted to the far eastern equatorial Pacific in association with a significant warming trend that began in mid-December.

In the central Pacific, the subsurface temperature anomalies also lessened (averaging from 1 degree C to 4 degrees C) at thermocline depth, and became increasingly confined to the surface region.

This evolution led to a significant weakening of the negative ocean heat content anomalies (average temperatures in the upper 300m) of the ocean. Despite this oceanic trend, the atmospheric conditions continue to strongly reflect La Nina.

Enhanced low-level easterly winds and upper-level westerly winds persisted across the central equatorial Pacific, convection remained suppressed throughout the central equatorial Pacific, and enhanced convection covered the far western Pacific.

Collectively, these atmospheric and oceanic conditions indicate an ongoing, but weaker, La Nina.

The recent dynamical and statistical SST forecasts for the Nino region indicate La Nina will become weak and persist through May-June-July 2008.

Thereafter, there is considerable spread in the forecasts, with nearly one-half indicating La Nina could continue well into the second half of the year.

The climate prediction was based on consolidated effort of the US National Atmospheric and Oceanic Administration (NOAA), and NOAA's National Weather Service.
"There are two ways to be fooled. One is to believe what isn't true; the other is to refuse to believe what is true."
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Chr15t05
Senior Member
Username: chr15t05

Post Number: 1090
Registered: 8-2004
Posted on Sunday, April 13, 2008 - 9:35 am:   Edit Post Delete Post View Post/Check IP Print Post

Here's an interesting one:

Hurricane expert reconsiders global warming's impact

"One of the most influential scientists behind the theory that global warming has intensified recent hurricane activity says he will reconsider his stand..."

(Article Continues)
"There are two ways to be fooled. One is to believe what isn't true; the other is to refuse to believe what is true."
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Chr15t05
Senior Member
Username: chr15t05

Post Number: 1102
Registered: 8-2004
Posted on Thursday, April 24, 2008 - 7:38 pm:   Edit Post Delete Post View Post/Check IP Print Post

Still unusually cold in Canada. I guess this can only be good news for sea-ice cover. There do appear to be some atypical fluctuations happening, however...

Cold Records Fall

The snow in Nanaimo broke a record set on April 12, 1981 with 4.9 centimetres. The city hadn't seen measurable snow on April 19 since 1947.

April has been unpredictable, with cold temperatures breaking records in Powell River four times and a record-breaking high temperature once.

On April 1, the low was -3.2°C, breaking a 1956 record of -2.2°C.

The next day, April 2, temperatures plunged to -3.5°C, breaking the record of -3°C in 2001.

On April 12, temperatures reached 19.1°C, breaking a record set in 1988 when the temperature hit 18.3°C.

Both April 20 and 21 had record-breaking cold temperatures. The weather station recorded -2.5°C on April 20, which broke the 2001 record of -1.9°C. The next day's low of -2.8°C broke the -1.7°C record set in 1968.

"We've had below average temperatures all month," said Ede.

"There are two ways to be fooled. One is to believe what isn't true; the other is to refuse to believe what is true."
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Chr15t05
Senior Member
Username: chr15t05

Post Number: 1105
Registered: 8-2004
Posted on Saturday, April 26, 2008 - 10:01 pm:   Edit Post Delete Post View Post/Check IP Print Post

Some potentially good news here in Oz:


More rain as La Nina hangs on

LA NINA is lingering, which could result in vital follow-up rain across the state after the wet summer.

NASA satellite pictures of the Earth's ocean-surface topography released last week show the weather phenomenon which brought floods and drought-breaking rains to many parts of Queensland is not done yet.

The pictures, taken on April 1, indicate that the current La Nina – one of the strongest seen in many years – is not weakening as fast as some forecasters expected and warm water still blankets much of the Queensland coast and over huge areas of the Pacific.

Climate experts say the warm La Nina water helps bring rain to Queensland, as opposed to the cold El Nino stream which contributed to seven years of drought.

National Climate Centre climatologist Dr Grant Beard said the latest La Nina images were promising for farmers and gardeners, but also indicated any dam-filling rain had gone for the season.

"It's not as strong as it was three months ago – it's weakened considerably since the height of summer, but it's got a little bit of life left in it," he said.

The Bureau of Meteorology's latest outlook points to higher rainfall in the southern and western parts of Queensland over the late autumn to winter period (May to July).

Southeast Queensland is expected to remain on Level 6 water restrictions, with combined storage level in the three dams servicing the region just above 38 per cent. Dam levels need to go above 40 per cent before restrictions are eased.

http://www.news.com.au/couriermail/story/0,23739,23601224-3102,00.html
"There are two ways to be fooled. One is to believe what isn't true; the other is to refuse to believe what is true."
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Chr15t05
Senior Member
Username: chr15t05

Post Number: 1106
Registered: 8-2004
Posted on Tuesday, April 29, 2008 - 11:57 pm:   Edit Post Delete Post View Post/Check IP Print Post

NASA's Jet Propulsion Laboratory has released new data showing that the La Nina in the Pacific is occurring within the context of a larger climate event. There is now empirical evidence suggesting that the Pacific Decadal Oscillation is moving into its "cool" phase, which has not been seen in the last several decades. If this trend continues as expected, it is likely to have wide reaching climate implications. It's still too early to say if there is a solar influence present in the cooling, but the continuing synchronicity with the delay of cycle 24 is interesting.

More Information
"There are two ways to be fooled. One is to believe what isn't true; the other is to refuse to believe what is true."
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Chr15t05
Senior Member
Username: chr15t05

Post Number: 1107
Registered: 8-2004
Posted on Wednesday, April 30, 2008 - 12:01 am:   Edit Post Delete Post View Post/Check IP Print Post

Here's an image of relative ocean temperature anomalies
"There are two ways to be fooled. One is to believe what isn't true; the other is to refuse to believe what is true."
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Edwina!
Junior Member
Username: mad_queen_edwina

Post Number: 59
Registered: 10-2004
Posted on Friday, May 02, 2008 - 11:34 am:   Edit Post Delete Post View Post/Check IP Print Post

Blame it on the Gulf Stream. The linked article quotes a study that states that changes to the Gulf Stream will cancel out effects of global warming over the next decade. It also states that after the next decade, global warming will catch up like an abstinent alcoholic who rediscovers adult beverages. That's assuming, of course, that active sunspot cycles return (IMO the sun is in a Maunder minimum -- zero sunspots for quite a while like in the late 1600s) and there is no Global Superstorm in the meantime.
Liberty or Death!
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Chr15t05
Senior Member
Username: chr15t05

Post Number: 1121
Registered: 8-2004
Posted on Wednesday, May 28, 2008 - 3:50 am:   Edit Post Delete Post View Post/Check IP Print Post

Here's a rather entertaining article about a tourist-carrying Russian ice-breaker that recently became stuck for seven days in thick ice while attempting the Northwest passage.

Chris
"There are two ways to be fooled. One is to believe what isn't true; the other is to refuse to believe what is true."
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Chr15t05
Senior Member
Username: chr15t05

Post Number: 1127
Registered: 8-2004
Posted on Tuesday, June 10, 2008 - 6:41 pm:   Edit Post Delete Post View Post/Check IP Print Post

Sun Goes Longer Than Normal Without Producing Sunspots

The sun has been lying low for the past couple of years, producing no sunspots and giving a break to satellites.

That's good news for people who scramble when space weather interferes with their technology, but it became a point of discussion for the scientists who attended an international solar conference at Montana State University. Approximately 100 scientists from Europe, Asia, Latin America, Africa and North America gathered June 1-6 to talk about "Solar Variability, Earth's Climate and the Space Environment."

The scientists said periods of inactivity are normal for the sun, but this period has gone on longer than usual.

"It continues to be dead," said Saku Tsuneta with the National Astronomical Observatory of Japan, program manager for the Hinode solar mission. "That's a small concern, a very small concern."

The Hinode satellite is a Japanese mission with the United States and United Kingdom as partners. The satellite carries three telescopes that together show how changes on the sun's surface spread through the solar atmosphere. MSU researchers are among those operating the X-ray telescope. The satellite orbits 431 miles above ground, crossing both poles and making one lap every 95 minutes, giving Hinode an uninterrupted view of the sun for several months out of the year.

Dana Longcope, a solar physicist at MSU, said the sun usually operates on an 11-year cycle with maximum activity occurring in the middle of the cycle. Minimum activity generally occurs as the cycles change. Solar activity refers to phenomena like sunspots, solar flares and solar eruptions. Together, they create the weather than can disrupt satellites in space and technology on earth.

The last cycle reached its peak in 2001 and is believed to be just ending now, Longcope said. The next cycle is just beginning and is expected to reach its peak sometime around 2012. Today's sun, however, is as inactive as it was two years ago, and scientists aren't sure why.

"It's a dead face," Tsuneta said of the sun's appearance.

Tsuneta said solar physicists aren't like weather forecasters; They can't predict the future. They do have the ability to observe, however, and they have observed a longer-than-normal period of solar inactivity. In the past, they observed that the sun once went 50 years without producing sunspots. That period, from approximately 1650 to 1700, occurred during the middle of a little ice age on Earth that lasted from as early as the mid-15th century to as late as the mid-19th century.

Tsuneta said he doesn't know how long the sun will continue to be inactive, but scientists associated with the Hinode mission are ready for it to resume maximum activity. They have added extra ground stations to pick up signals from Hinode in case solar activity interferes with instruments at other stations around the world. The new stations, ready to start operating this summer, are located in India, Norway, Alaska and the South Pole.

(Article Continues)
"There are two ways to be fooled. One is to believe what isn't true; the other is to refuse to believe what is true."
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sonorK
Senior Member
Username: sonork

Post Number: 676
Registered: 6-2002
Posted on Friday, June 13, 2008 - 1:19 pm:   Edit Post Delete Post View Post/Check IP Print Post

Global Warming and the Price of a Gallon of Gas
"by John Coleman

You may want to give credit where credit is due to Al Gore and his global warming campaign the next time you fill your car with gasoline, because there is a direct connection between Global Warming and four dollar a gallon gas...."
"He did the same thing to us that he did to Monica Lewinsky." Jeremiah Wright on Bill Clinton
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Chr15t05
Senior Member
Username: chr15t05

Post Number: 1128
Registered: 8-2004
Posted on Saturday, June 21, 2008 - 3:14 am:   Edit Post Delete Post View Post/Check IP Print Post

From Anchorage, Alaska:

After solstice today, it's all downhill to winter

At 3:59 this afternoon, the sun will reach its northernmost point above the celestial equator and we'll mark the official summer solstice.

Many calendars note the solstice by calling it the first day of summer, but Alaskans know better. Today at 3:59 p.m., Alaska will make a U-turn and head straight toward winter as days start getting shorter.

Which is a shame, seeing how summer so far has been MIA.

We are deep in June and, as of Thursday, the temperature has yet to hit 70 degrees at the National Weather Service's observation point near the airport, where daily highs and lows are recorded.

It hit 67 on Tuesday near the airport, the highest official reading in Anchorage since the year began.

We haven't had to wait this long for a 70-degree day since 1993, when the mercury hit the 70s for the first time on June 19th.

Welcome to a record-breaker. Rah.

Could be worse, of course. Could be snowing. That happened in 1998, when solstice revelers spending the night atop Flattop celebrated in a freak snowstorm at 3,500 feet.

Snow or no snow, summer has been slow to arrive in Anchorage.

Beth Schlabaugh, president of the Alaska Master Gardeners Association's Anchorage chapter, said lots of green things are off kilter because of summer's delay.

"Definitely we're seeing a much later season this year," she said. "Everyone has talked to me about things being two to three weeks behind schedule."

Roses have been late to break dormancy, she said. Irises and lilacs are only now showing up, and not everywhere. Seeds are slow to germinate.

"Just in my garden, the hostas are slow to come out of the ground," Schlabaugh said. "Things are really late."

On the upside, early bloomers like tulips are lasting longer, she said. And if you haven't limed or thatched your lawn yet, the cool weather means you can do it now even at this late date and still reap the benefits.

The cool weather will be a blessing to runners who will spend Saturday morning running 26.2 miles in the Mayor's Midnight Sun Marathon.

"Probably the best weather is somewhere between 40 and 60 degrees," said Will Kimball, a two-time winner of the marathon. "You want cool."

Kimball is calling this "the summer of the cold breeze."

"Often it looks pleasant," he said, "but that breeze has got a cold nip to it."

Some people think the cool is, well, cool.

"I love this weather," said Sam Albanese, a forecaster with the National Weather Service in Anchorage. "I've been up here 22 years now and as far as I'm concerned, 65 and cloudy is ideal. Seventy degrees and sunshine, and I feel like I'm down in Georgia."

Albanese offers no promises for those aching for hot, sunny weather. It seemed like summer Tuesday and Wednesday -- days that brought sunshine and warmth -- but today and tomorrow should be cooler and maybe a bit cloudy.

The forecast for the weekend says it might hit 70 on Sunday -- two days after the solstice, and two days closer to winter.
"There are two ways to be fooled. One is to believe what isn't true; the other is to refuse to believe what is true."
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Chr15t05
Senior Member
Username: chr15t05

Post Number: 1130
Registered: 8-2004
Posted on Wednesday, July 30, 2008 - 6:14 pm:   Edit Post Delete Post View Post/Check IP Print Post

More ice than expected in parts of the Arctic

New data from the Norwegian Meteorological Institute shows that there is more ice than normal in the Arctic waters north of the Svalbard archipelago.

In most years, there are open waters in the area north of the archipelago in July month. Studies from this year however show that the area is covered by ice, the Meteorological Institute writes in a press release.

In mid-July, the research vessel Lance and the Swedish ship MV Stockholm got stuck in ice in the area and needed help from the Norwegian Coast Guard to get loose.

The ice findings from the area spurred surprise among the researchers, many of whom expect the very North Pole to be ice-free by September this year.
"There are two ways to be fooled. One is to believe what isn't true; the other is to refuse to believe what is true."
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animalspirits
Senior Member
Username: animalspiritstalstarcom

Post Number: 3561
Registered: 10-2006
Posted on Thursday, July 31, 2008 - 4:12 am:   Edit Post Delete Post View Post/Check IP Print Post

Then there is this:

Canadian Ice Shelf Loses Seven Square Mile Section
Understand that all things are sacred--yet nothing is sacred.

~Yotee Coyote
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Chr15t05
Senior Member
Username: chr15t05

Post Number: 1131
Registered: 8-2004
Posted on Thursday, July 31, 2008 - 7:29 am:   Edit Post Delete Post View Post/Check IP Print Post

Yes, the warming of the past thirty years is a primary cause for increased instability of ice-shelves, particularly in the northern hemisphere. As your article notes, this recent break-off is a continuation of instability that began in 2002.

However, what I have been relaying (primarily) in this thread is evidence/articles relating to the significantly cooler global average temperature of the past 12-24 months, "coincidentally" coinciding with a downturn in solar activity.

Chris
"There are two ways to be fooled. One is to believe what isn't true; the other is to refuse to believe what is true."
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animalspirits
Senior Member
Username: animalspiritstalstarcom

Post Number: 3562
Registered: 10-2006
Posted on Thursday, July 31, 2008 - 8:00 am:   Edit Post Delete Post View Post/Check IP Print Post

chris,

Too bad you haven't been as diligent in posting the other side as well.
Understand that all things are sacred--yet nothing is sacred.

~Yotee Coyote
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Chr15t05
Senior Member
Username: chr15t05

Post Number: 1132
Registered: 8-2004
Posted on Thursday, July 31, 2008 - 8:43 am:   Edit Post Delete Post View Post/Check IP Print Post

I do have my own opinions regarding this topic, I'm not going to deny that, animalspirits. But I did not arrive at these conclusions easily, and I have always made it a point to research and understand the opposing perspectives.

Chris
"There are two ways to be fooled. One is to believe what isn't true; the other is to refuse to believe what is true."
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animalspirits
Senior Member
Username: animalspiritstalstarcom

Post Number: 3563
Registered: 10-2006
Posted on Thursday, July 31, 2008 - 9:23 am:   Edit Post Delete Post View Post/Check IP Print Post

Chris,

Whatever spin you want to put on is fine with me.
Understand that all things are sacred--yet nothing is sacred.

~Yotee Coyote
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sonorK
Senior Member
Username: sonork

Post Number: 747
Registered: 6-2002
Posted on Thursday, July 31, 2008 - 9:59 am:   Edit Post Delete Post View Post/Check IP Print Post

Hmmmm.... and everyone was saying the Sun had nothing to do with our temperature changes....

Chris, don't go and get all logical on us. I'm sure animalspirits hasn't read up on the cold 'summer' Alaska has been having this year either.

The coming winter should be interesting.
"He did the same thing to us that he did to Monica Lewinsky." Jeremiah Wright on Bill Clinton
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Chr15t05
Senior Member
Username: chr15t05

Post Number: 1133
Registered: 8-2004
Posted on Thursday, July 31, 2008 - 6:08 pm:   Edit Post Delete Post View Post/Check IP Print Post

Yes, the Alaska situation is interesting. I have just returned from a trip to England and Scotland, where locals are also complaining about a summer that has been virtually "non-existant". Here in Oz we just had a winter cold snap that brought enough snow to Queensland for children to build snowmen, a truly rare event that I do not remember witnessing before.

But apart from anecdotal evidence, all four main temperature records continue to show a marked decline in the global average, which has still not rebounded from the drop in January. Summer sea-ice extent in the southern hemisphere recently broke another record, and despite fears about younger, thinner ice, Arctic ice loss in 2008 is not expected to come anywhere near last year.

If you were wondering about the current ice extent in the arctic, it looks like this:

Image 1 Image 2

Chris
"There are two ways to be fooled. One is to believe what isn't true; the other is to refuse to believe what is true."
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sonorK
Senior Member
Username: sonork

Post Number: 761
Registered: 6-2002
Posted on Thursday, August 07, 2008 - 2:37 pm:   Edit Post Delete Post View Post/Check IP Print Post

Hawaii is having a record cold summer too.
"He did the same thing to us that he did to Monica Lewinsky." Jeremiah Wright on Bill Clinton
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anna
Senior Member
Username: anna

Post Number: 1685
Registered: 9-2002
Posted on Thursday, August 07, 2008 - 3:38 pm:   Edit Post Delete Post View Post/Check IP Print Post

I wonder if there are several things in play- low solar activity (saw a pic the other day of 0 sunspots, very strange looking), global warming and who knows what else.... We has an unusually cold, snowy winter and cool/wet spring. I think that may be a wave of the future. I noticed squirrels are burying nuts in the last 2 weeks. That seems early for here, maybe a cold/early fall...
Be the change....
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allen
Senior Member
Username: eastsider01

Post Number: 641
Registered: 4-2005
Posted on Monday, August 11, 2008 - 12:40 pm:   Edit Post Delete Post View Post/Check IP Print Post

So a article in the UK Guardian this morning says that the Artic ice melt will be even greater than last year and that the artic will be ice free in the summer of 2013. Dire consequences are forecast.
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Chr15t05
Senior Member
Username: chr15t05

Post Number: 1134
Registered: 8-2004
Posted on Tuesday, August 12, 2008 - 2:41 am:   Edit Post Delete Post View Post/Check IP Print Post

According to the National Snow and Ice Data Center there is almost a million square kilometres more ice present in the Arctic than there was on this date in 2007. Considering the young age of the ice that began this season's melt I'd say that's not a bad showing overall.

Chris
"There are two ways to be fooled. One is to believe what isn't true; the other is to refuse to believe what is true."
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sonorK
Senior Member
Username: sonork

Post Number: 765
Registered: 6-2002
Posted on Tuesday, August 12, 2008 - 10:19 am:   Edit Post Delete Post View Post/Check IP Print Post

The Midwest is also experiencing much cooler temperatures this summer than usual.
"He did the same thing to us that he did to Monica Lewinsky." Jeremiah Wright on Bill Clinton
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allen
Senior Member
Username: eastsider01

Post Number: 647
Registered: 4-2005
Posted on Tuesday, August 12, 2008 - 10:39 am:   Edit Post Delete Post View Post/Check IP Print Post

Satalite images show that ice caps started to disintergrate dramatically several days ago as storms over Alaska's Beaufort Sea began sucking streams of warm air into the Artic.
As a result scientists say the sea ice melt could exceed last years record loss. More than a million square kilometers melted over the summer of 2007 as global warming tightened it's grip on the Artic. But such destruction could be matched, or even topped, this year.
"It is a neck-and neck race between 2007 and this year over the issue of ice loss" said Mark Serreze, of the U.S. National Snow and Ice Data Center in Boulder, Colorado.
The Beauford Sea storms triggered steep ice losses and it now looks as if it will be a very close call indeed wether 2007 or 2008 is the worst year on record for ice cover over the Artic. We will only find out when the cover reaches it's minimum in September.
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Chr15t05
Senior Member
Username: chr15t05

Post Number: 1135
Registered: 8-2004
Posted on Tuesday, August 12, 2008 - 7:49 pm:   Edit Post Delete Post View Post/Check IP Print Post

If not for the recent storms in the Beauford Sea there would have been closer to two million square kilometres more ice than at this time last year. While it's certainly a headline grabbing assertion, having monitored the ice-loss closely I can assure you that at no point (so far) this season did it look like 2008 would overtake 2007. I'm not asking you to take my word for it, the real time data from the NSIDC is available here.

Chris
"There are two ways to be fooled. One is to believe what isn't true; the other is to refuse to believe what is true."
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allen
Senior Member
Username: eastsider01

Post Number: 648
Registered: 4-2005
Posted on Tuesday, August 12, 2008 - 9:17 pm:   Edit Post Delete Post View Post/Check IP Print Post

Let's just see where we are in mid September. Then we will know for sure if this year surpassed last years record ice loss.
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Edwina!
Junior Member
Username: mad_queen_edwina

Post Number: 66
Registered: 10-2004
Posted on Monday, August 18, 2008 - 11:17 am:   Edit Post Delete Post View Post/Check IP Print Post

"The Cryosphere Today" (the ice cap cover link in the Quickwatch section) confirms this. But the root cause is not the storms, but the thinness of the ice cover that re-formed over last winter. Ice cover only 200,000 sq. km. more than this time last year.
Liberty or Death!
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Chr15t05
Senior Member
Username: chr15t05

Post Number: 1136
Registered: 8-2004
Posted on Monday, August 18, 2008 - 6:18 pm:   Edit Post Delete Post View Post/Check IP Print Post

Edwina, where are you getting the 200,000 sq km figure? According to NSIDC (above) it's closer to 600,000. Comparing images between 2007 and 2008 there does appear to be much greater than 200,000 sq km more ice present this year.

Chris
"There are two ways to be fooled. One is to believe what isn't true; the other is to refuse to believe what is true."
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allen
Senior Member
Username: eastsider01

Post Number: 664
Registered: 4-2005
Posted on Monday, August 18, 2008 - 6:29 pm:   Edit Post Delete Post View Post/Check IP Print Post

Chr15t05 that assertion was made by the folks at NSIDC, not me....
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Chr15t05
Senior Member
Username: chr15t05

Post Number: 1137
Registered: 8-2004
Posted on Monday, August 18, 2008 - 6:53 pm:   Edit Post Delete Post View Post/Check IP Print Post

Can you please point me to the source, Allen?

It's a little perplexing, as I can't find any real time graph or image (including those from the NSIDC) that agrees with that assertion.

Chris
"There are two ways to be fooled. One is to believe what isn't true; the other is to refuse to believe what is true."
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allen
Senior Member
Username: eastsider01

Post Number: 665
Registered: 4-2005
Posted on Monday, August 18, 2008 - 11:22 pm:   Edit Post Delete Post View Post/Check IP Print Post

Chr15to5, the article was in the Aug 10 edition of the Guardian.co.uk. The author is Robin McKie. The article is titled "Meltdown in the Arctic is speeding up".
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allen
Senior Member
Username: eastsider01

Post Number: 666
Registered: 4-2005
Posted on Monday, August 18, 2008 - 11:26 pm:   Edit Post Delete Post View Post/Check IP Print Post

Or you can go to The Daily Grail ..news briefs 08-11-2008, 4th item from the top.
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Chr15t05
Senior Member
Username: chr15t05

Post Number: 1138
Registered: 8-2004
Posted on Tuesday, August 19, 2008 - 3:41 am:   Edit Post Delete Post View Post/Check IP Print Post

Sorry Allen, I was talking about the specific assertion that there's only 200,000 square kilometres more ice this year than on the same date last year. I don't believe this is remotely accurate based on available evidence and was wondering where it originated from.

Chris
"There are two ways to be fooled. One is to believe what isn't true; the other is to refuse to believe what is true."
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Edwina!
Junior Member
Username: mad_queen_edwina

Post Number: 67
Registered: 10-2004
Posted on Wednesday, August 20, 2008 - 10:18 am:   Edit Post Delete Post View Post/Check IP Print Post

Chri5to5, go here and click on the graph for the Arctic ice cover since this time last year -- it's the sine wave graph at the top, closest towards the photos of the Arctic Circle. The 200,000 sq. km. figure was what I interpreted off the graph. It looks like the difference has now grown to 400,000 sq. km. (greater than one year ago); even so, if you look at the photos, it looks like the Arctic ice cover is being eaten out by rats!
Liberty or Death!