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anna
Senior Member
Username: anna

Post Number: 1197
Registered: 9-2002
Posted on Tuesday, February 19, 2008 - 10:51 pm:   Edit Post Delete Post View Post/Check IP Print Post

NEW evidence has cast doubt on claims that the world’s ice-caps are melting, it emerged last night. Satellite data shows that concerns over the levels of sea ice may have been premature.

It was feared that the polar caps were vanishing because of the effects of global warming. But figures from the respected US National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration show that almost all the “lost” ice has come back.

Ice levels which had shrunk from 13million sq km in January 2007 to just four million in October, are almost back to their original levels. Figures show that there is nearly a third more ice in Antarctica than is usual for the time of year.

The data flies in the face of many current thinkers and will be seized on by climate change sceptics who deny that the world is undergoing global warming. A photograph of polar bears clinging on to a melting iceberg has become one of the most enduring images in the campaign against climate change.

It was used by former US Vice President Al Gore during his Inconvenient Truth lectures about mankind’s impact on the world. But scientists say the northern hemisphere has endured its coldest winter in decades.

They add that snow cover across the area is at its greatest since 1966. The one exception is Western Europe, which has – until the weekend when temperatures plunged to as low as -10C in some places – been basking in unseasonably warm weather. The UK has reported one of its warmest winters on record.

However, vast swathes of the world have suffered chaos because of some of the heaviest snowfalls in decades. Central and southern China, the USA and Canada were hit hard by snowstorms.

Even the Middle East saw snow, with Jerusalem, Damascus, Amman and northern Saudi Arabia reporting the heaviest falls in years and below-zero temperatures. Meanwhile, in Afghanistan snow and freezing weather killed 120 people.

In Britain the barmy February weather came to an abrupt halt at the weekend as temperatures plunged to -10C in central England. Experts believe that this month could end up as one of the coldest Februaries in Britain in the past 10 years.

The freezing night-time conditions look set to stay around -8C until at least the middle of the week. A Met Office spokesman explained: “There has been little or no cloud cover across England and Wales. So there is a capacity for a fair bit of heat to be able to escape at night.

“It has been warmer in Scotland but that’s because it has been cloudy there. “Until the weekend the temperatures were in the 14s and 15s, and we will see a return to that later this week, though it will look grey and overcast when the clouds return.”

But he added that there was little chance of snow. He said: “When the rain comes it will get warmer.”

http://www.express.co.uk/posts/view/35266/Global-warming-It-s-the-coldest-winter -in-decades
Gandalf- Death is just another path. The grey rain-curtain of this world rolls back & all turns to silver glass & then you see it, white shores & beyond a far green country under a swift sunrise.
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fortwynt
Senior Member
Username: fortwynt

Post Number: 4493
Registered: 12-2006
Posted on Tuesday, February 19, 2008 - 10:54 pm:   Edit Post Delete Post View Post/Check IP Print Post

Where I live (W.Va.), we have certainly not had the coldest winters this decade, in fact 20 or 30 years ago we were having much worse weather this time of year...although to chalk that up to global warming I think is the easy answer, somehow I don't believe this but think it has more to do with subtle natural shifts over time.

What's funny is this year it has been colder during the day but the temperature has increased as the night goes on....hmm.
http://www.myspace.com/fortwynt

I love to add new friends!
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Nandor
Advanced Member
Username: doug_irvine

Post Number: 316
Registered: 5-2006
Posted on Wednesday, February 20, 2008 - 7:30 am:   Edit Post Delete Post View Post/Check IP Print Post

Is it not the prediction for global warming that we have colder winters that are shorter in duration.
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michael
Advanced Member
Username: mthood

Post Number: 372
Registered: 9-2007
Posted on Wednesday, February 20, 2008 - 8:10 am:   Edit Post Delete Post View Post/Check IP Print Post

I'm not a big fan of the term "global warming" anyway. Climate change seems to be a better way to describe what is going on.

What we are having is more extreme swings in temperature, which is part of the climate change scenarios. Last summer we had record heat, this winter record cold. We have had devastating storms over much of the planet, though last years hurricane season was a flop. The question in my mind is, how extreme can the temperature differences get, and what will happen as a consequence?
I guess when you turn off the main road, you have to be prepared to see some funny houses.
Stephen King
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Chr15t05
Senior Member
Username: chr15t05

Post Number: 1011
Registered: 8-2004
Posted on Thursday, February 21, 2008 - 5:22 pm:   Edit Post Delete Post View Post/Check IP Print Post

I found the following article to be very interesting. I'll admit up front that I know very little about the author (haven't had time to research his background), but if true it does seem to put the present situation into a somewhat sharper focus:

Where have all the sunspots gone?

See also:

January 2007 to January 2008 appears to be the largest single year to year January drop for the entire GISS data set.

Chris
"There are two ways to be fooled. One is to believe what isn't true; the other is to refuse to believe what is true."
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Starcatcher
Junior Member
Username: starcatcher

Post Number: 67
Registered: 10-2004
Posted on Friday, February 22, 2008 - 6:26 am:   Edit Post Delete Post View Post/Check IP Print Post

Re: the return of Arctic winter sea ice - it seems logical to me that we should expect the ice to return during each winter, and that there's nothing unusual in this. Although the ice melted alarmingly in the summer of 2007, this didn't mean it wasn't going to reform again when temperatures dropped in winter.

It's the thickness (or perhaps I should say the thinness) of that returning ice, as well as the volume of warm water advected from the Atlantic and Pacific oceans into the Arctic region, that will help determine how much of it melts again this summer, and how quickly.

The BBC News Online report (December 12th 2007), which discussed the research behind the 2007 sea ice melt, can be read here:-

http://news.bbc.co.uk/1/hi/sci/tech/7139797.stm

I'm unsure how to interpret the Daily Express journalist's statement that there is "nearly a third more ice in Antarctica than is usual for the time of year". A search for the phrase at the NOAA site brings me no closer to the source of this information, while a Google search for the phrase returns about 150,000 hits - and all of the first ten or so are other articles and blog posters repeating the Daily Express phrase with no original source cited - they just repeat the Express line.

Can anyone point me to the NOAA press release or report from where this information comes?

In my own blog post, Antarctic Ice Loss Confirmed (January 14th 2008) - http://www.bobkingsley.co.uk/blog/?p=163 - I used research undertaken in part by the University of Bristol which showed that increasing amounts of ice mass have been lost from West Antarctica and the Antarctic peninsula over the past ten years. Meanwhile the ice mass in East Antarctica has been roughly stable, with neither loss nor accumulation over the past decade. The research clearly shows that over the 10 year time period of the survey, the ice sheet as a whole was certainly losing mass, and the mass loss increased by 75% during this time.

The research concluded that most of the mass loss is from the Amundsen Sea sector of West Antarctica and the northern tip of the Peninsula where it is driven by ongoing, pronounced glacier acceleration. In East Antarctica, the mass balance is near zero, but the thinning of its potentially vulnerable marine sectors suggests this may change in the near future.
The true and the real are often confused.
--------------------------------------------
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Chr15t05
Senior Member
Username: chr15t05

Post Number: 1012
Registered: 8-2004
Posted on Friday, February 22, 2008 - 9:18 am:   Edit Post Delete Post View Post/Check IP Print Post

Starcatcher said:

quote:

It's the thickness (or perhaps I should say the thinness) of that returning ice, as well as the volume of warm water advected from the Atlantic and Pacific oceans into the Arctic region, that will help determine how much of it melts again this summer, and how quickly.


CBC News in Canada did a recent report on this. According to the Canadian Ice Service, "The ice is about 10 to 20 centimetres thicker than last year, so that's a significant increase." Current ice cover is also approximately two million square kilometers greater than the winter average of the past three years.

Don't know where the Daily Express journo got his info on Antarctica though; I wasn't able to find anything either. I suspect he was talking about floating sea-ice, which has been on the increase since the 1970s. A third more in one season seems like a bit much though, IMO. Will let you know if I find anything else about this.

Chris
"There are two ways to be fooled. One is to believe what isn't true; the other is to refuse to believe what is true."
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Starcatcher
Junior Member
Username: starcatcher

Post Number: 68
Registered: 10-2004
Posted on Friday, February 22, 2008 - 12:49 pm:   Edit Post Delete Post View Post/Check IP Print Post

Thanks Chris, that's useful info.

Mind you, when coupled with the possible downturn in solar activity suggested by the QuickWatch update, I don't know whether to feel reassured, or more concerned, for our future!
The true and the real are often confused.
--------------------------------------------
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zendor
Advanced Member
Username: wizardofoz

Post Number: 497
Registered: 5-2003
Posted on Saturday, February 23, 2008 - 7:29 pm:   Edit Post Delete Post View Post/Check IP Print Post

I hope we are getting cooler and wetter. The big test will be in the northern summer in 6 months time and we will see the minimum ice extent.

It is a worry actually, the size of the drop for Febuary seems to be greater than the rest of the data. I am not sure this is good news or not. Sudden swings in one direction may indicate that the climate is much more unstable than in the past, which is not good news.

From here in Australia, we are feeling the effects of La Nina and we are getting floods after years of severe drought. The inland rivers which were dying are getting a new lease of life. In Sydney, I think this has been the coldest and wettest February for years. It even is snowing in Hobart on the news today. (Remember it is mid summer in the southern hemisphere) At the same time as it is snowing in Hobart, Chr15t05 is experiencing a heat wave in Brisbane!

Could all this global cooling be related to La Nina -- Is it more than just a pacific ocean thing , or is there a global climate connection.
"Unthinking respect for authority is the greatest enemy of truth." -Albert Einstein
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Granny
Senior Member
Username: phar9

Post Number: 979
Registered: 5-2004
Posted on Saturday, February 23, 2008 - 9:47 pm:   Edit Post Delete Post View Post/Check IP Print Post

anna ...

"A photograph of polar bears clinging on to a melting iceberg has become one of the most enduring images in the campaign against climate change.

It was used by former US Vice President Al Gore during his Inconvenient Truth lectures about mankind’s impact on the world"


I was thinking I either read it or saw on a video ... that photo was actually taken very close to shore and those bears were in not danger of drowning.

Wondering ...

Gran
Signing up for "War Kittens"
Think Or Be Eaten ...
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Granny
Senior Member
Username: phar9

Post Number: 980
Registered: 5-2004
Posted on Saturday, February 23, 2008 - 9:50 pm:   Edit Post Delete Post View Post/Check IP Print Post

fort ...

Am just down the road a bit in Tenn :-) and it has not been very cold here either. Trees are budding and it has been extremely windy. Temps have been a see saw.

Gran
Signing up for "War Kittens"
Think Or Be Eaten ...
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Chr15t05
Senior Member
Username: chr15t05

Post Number: 1018
Registered: 8-2004
Posted on Monday, February 25, 2008 - 1:52 am:   Edit Post Delete Post View Post/Check IP Print Post

Zendor, yeah this is truly one of the weirdest summers in recent memory. The heatwave in Brisbane lasted for less than a day, fortunately, the temperature dropped 10 degrees by mid-afternoon. Now we're back in the mid twenties (C) with rain and wind, which is pretty much where we've been the entire summer. I feel sorry for the people who had booked the peak period at the beach, but just keep that rain coming!


quote:

Could all this global cooling be related to La Nina -- Is it more than just a pacific ocean thing , or is there a global climate connection.


I have a feeling this one's global. Of course, I find the sunspot hypothesis fascinating. I wonder if we're not witnessing a brief prelude to the main event after cycle 24.

Chris
"There are two ways to be fooled. One is to believe what isn't true; the other is to refuse to believe what is true."
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Chr15t05
Senior Member
Username: chr15t05

Post Number: 1019
Registered: 8-2004
Posted on Monday, February 25, 2008 - 1:56 am:   Edit Post Delete Post View Post/Check IP Print Post

Deep freeze in western Greenland

The ice between Canada and southwestern Greenland has reached its highest level in 15 years.

Minus 30 degrees Celsius. That's how cold it's been in large parts of western Greenland where the population has been bundling up in hats and scarves. At the same time, Denmark's Meteorological Institute states that the ice between Canada and southwest Greenland right now has reached its greatest extent in 15 years.

'Satellite pictures show that the ice expansion has extended farther south this year. In fact, it's a bit past the Nuuk area. We have to go back 15 years to find ice expansion so far south. On the eastern coast it hasn't been colder than normal, but there has been a good amount of snow.'

But how do these new reports fit in with continual reports that ice in the Arctic Ocean has been melting at a record rate due to increasing temperatures? And isn't global warming at the top of the political agenda these years?

Shifting weather

If it's up to meteorologists from Denmark's Meteorological Institute, there is not anything inherently contradictory that extreme cold is replaced by higher temperatures than average. Or that melting sea ice occasionally is replaced by expanding ice sheets.

'Weather is a phenomenon which changes from year to year and right now the atmosphere has changed so we have cold weather. That will certainly mean that melting ice in the North Pole will be less this year, but next year the situation can look completely different,' according to Henriksen.

To sum things up, global warming hasn't been called off. In the meanwhile, western Greenlanders will have to accept that the cold weather continues for some time. At least until next Tuesday when milder weather could be on the way, according to Polarfronten online.
"There are two ways to be fooled. One is to believe what isn't true; the other is to refuse to believe what is true."
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sonorK
Senior Member
Username: sonork

Post Number: 518
Registered: 6-2002
Posted on Monday, February 25, 2008 - 12:02 pm:   Edit Post Delete Post View Post/Check IP Print Post

Forget global warming: Welcome to the new Ice Age

Lorne Gunter, National Post
Published: Monday, February 25, 2008

Snow cover over North America and much of Siberia, Mongolia and China is greater than at any time since 1966.

The U.S. National Climatic Data Center (NCDC) reported that many American cities and towns suffered record cold temperatures in January and early February. According to the NCDC, the average temperature in January "was -0.3 F cooler than the 1901-2000 (20th century) average."

China is surviving its most brutal winter in a century. Temperatures in the normally balmy south were so low for so long that some middle-sized cities went days and even weeks without electricity because once power lines had toppled it was too cold or too icy to repair them.

There have been so many snow and ice storms in Ontario and Quebec in the past two months that the real estate market has felt the pinch as home buyers have stayed home rather than venturing out looking for new houses.

In just the first two weeks of February, Toronto received 70 cm of snow, smashing the record of 66.6 cm for the entire month set back in the pre-SUV, pre-Kyoto, pre-carbon footprint days of 1950...........

........And it's not just anecdotal evidence that is piling up against the climate-change dogma.

According to Robert Toggweiler of the Geophysical Fluid Dynamics Laboratory at Princeton University and Joellen Russell, assistant professor of biogeochemical dynamics at the University of Arizona -- two prominent climate modellers -- the computer models that show polar ice-melt cooling the oceans, stopping the circulation of warm equatorial water to northern latitudes and triggering another Ice Age (a la the movie The Day After Tomorrow) are all wrong.

"We missed what was right in front of our eyes," says Prof. Russell. It's not ice melt but rather wind circulation that drives ocean currents northward from the tropics. Climate models until now have not properly accounted for the wind's effects on ocean circulation, so researchers have compensated by over-emphasizing the role of manmade warming on polar ice melt.

But when Profs. Toggweiler and Russell rejigged their model to include the 40-year cycle of winds away from the equator (then back towards it again), the role of ocean currents bringing warm southern waters to the north was obvious in the current Arctic warming..........
"In Iran, we do not have this phenomenon. I don't know who's told you that we have it." - Mahmoud Aquavelvajad
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Jimmy
Senior Member
Username: chippyo

Post Number: 738
Registered: 8-2002
Posted on Monday, February 25, 2008 - 11:52 pm:   Edit Post Delete Post View Post/Check IP Print Post

An anmoly? Frequency, frequency....the climate is a wild beast and teh earth massive to know in increments. Homostasis of teh earth's climate system?

Is it the sun? The oceans? The greenhouse effect? A combination of all 3?

Stay tuned


"We have the Information, now what do we do with it?"
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zendor
Advanced Member
Username: wizardofoz

Post Number: 498
Registered: 5-2003
Posted on Tuesday, February 26, 2008 - 8:05 am:   Edit Post Delete Post View Post/Check IP Print Post

Yes, we will have to wait and see what happens.

... But the size of the this drop is in itself very scary. I am reminded of chaos theory, which described the behavior of chaotic systems such as our climate -- a disturbance can cause it to flip into a new state which may be way different from it's initial state.
"Unthinking respect for authority is the greatest enemy of truth." -Albert Einstein
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xretsim
Senior Member
Username: xretsim

Post Number: 631
Registered: 2-2001
Posted on Wednesday, February 27, 2008 - 4:38 am:   Edit Post Delete Post View Post/Check IP Print Post

thing is we do not have time to wait for the new equilibrium, or for the disaster bearing down upon us to tell us it is here after it arrives.
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sonorK
Senior Member
Username: sonork

Post Number: 519
Registered: 6-2002
Posted on Wednesday, February 27, 2008 - 9:39 am:   Edit Post Delete Post View Post/Check IP Print Post

Temperature Monitors Report Widescale Global Cooling

Twelve-month long drop in world temperatures wipes out a century of warming

Over the past year, anecdotal evidence for a cooling planet has exploded. China has its coldest winter in 100 years. Baghdad sees its first snow in all recorded history. North America has the most snowcover in 50 years, with places like Wisconsin the highest since record-keeping began. Record levels of Antarctic sea ice, record cold in Minnesota, Texas, Florida, Mexico, Australia, Iran, Greece, South Africa, Greenland, Argentina, Chile -- the list goes on and on.
No more than anecdotal evidence, to be sure. But now, that evidence has been supplanted by hard scientific fact. All four major global temperature tracking outlets (Hadley, NASA's GISS, UAH, RSS) have released updated data. All show that over the past year, global temperatures have dropped precipitously.

A compiled list of all the sources can be seen here. The total amount of cooling ranges from 0.65C up to 0.75C -- a value large enough to wipe out nearly all the warming recorded over the past 100 years. All in one year's time. For all four sources, it's the single fastest temperature change ever recorded, either up or down.......
"In Iran, we do not have this phenomenon. I don't know who's told you that we have it." - Mahmoud Aquavelvajad
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Chr15t05
Senior Member
Username: chr15t05

Post Number: 1022
Registered: 8-2004
Posted on Wednesday, February 27, 2008 - 5:07 pm:   Edit Post Delete Post View Post/Check IP Print Post

Wow, that's pretty crazy... I guess the northern summer will be the real test.

Chris
"There are two ways to be fooled. One is to believe what isn't true; the other is to refuse to believe what is true."
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Occam's Butter Knife
Intermediate Member
Username: mrroboto

Post Number: 150
Registered: 1-2007
Posted on Wednesday, February 27, 2008 - 6:00 pm:   Edit Post Delete Post View Post/Check IP Print Post

As more energy is added to the system, the weather will have greater extremes. These big swings in weather are another effect of global warming. Don't worry we will melt off most of the north pole ice later this year. A big percentage of the permanent ice was lost last year which has been replaced by a lot of seasonal ice. That ice will not stand up to a hot summer and it will go fast.
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Chr15t05
Senior Member
Username: chr15t05

Post Number: 1023
Registered: 8-2004
Posted on Wednesday, February 27, 2008 - 6:07 pm:   Edit Post Delete Post View Post/Check IP Print Post

Assuming a hot summer that is...
"There are two ways to be fooled. One is to believe what isn't true; the other is to refuse to believe what is true."
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animalspirits
Senior Member
Username: animalspiritstalstarcom

Post Number: 2490
Registered: 10-2006
Posted on Wednesday, February 27, 2008 - 6:26 pm:   Edit Post Delete Post View Post/Check IP Print Post

Is there likely to be a lot of spring flooding with all the snow that has fallen up north...or has it been melting shortly after it fell during the winter?

I live in Florida, hence the question.
Understand that all things are sacred--yet nothing is sacred.

~Yotee Coyote
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Nandor
Advanced Member
Username: doug_irvine

Post Number: 321
Registered: 5-2006
Posted on Saturday, March 01, 2008 - 10:32 am:   Edit Post Delete Post View Post/Check IP Print Post

Has anyone read State of Fear by Michael Crichton? I strongly recommend it, because besides reading like an action film it has some very interesting ideas about global warming. The following is an essay by Michael Crichton printed at the back of the book.

http://www.crichton-official.com/essay-stateoffear-whypoliticizedscienceisdanger ous.html
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zendor
Advanced Member
Username: wizardofoz

Post Number: 500
Registered: 5-2003
Posted on Saturday, March 01, 2008 - 5:59 pm:   Edit Post Delete Post View Post/Check IP Print Post

Occams -- Oh yes, the size of the swing is something to worry about -- out climate looks like it is more unstable. This was a prediction symptom of global warming if I remember.

Nandor -- Thanks for the article on eugenics -- yes this is a good example of where science and the political forces behind science can get it totally wrong. This is not the only example of this happening.

I would like to point out that just because a view is mainstream science does not make it wrong -- as seems to be the assumption is some rather empty arguments I have read.

We do need evidence and good research to get to the truth. Something as complex as climate is proving to be difficult to understand.
"Unthinking respect for authority is the greatest enemy of truth." -Albert Einstein
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fortwynt
Senior Member
Username: fortwynt

Post Number: 4593
Registered: 12-2006
Posted on Saturday, March 01, 2008 - 8:13 pm:   Edit Post Delete Post View Post/Check IP Print Post

True, a "mainstream view" is not necessarily wrong....just that "mainstream views" tend to be, when examined with scrutiny, supported upon less firm foundation than what is generally assumed (and implied)....well maybe that isn't fair, but that has been my experience.
I came to save these new generations of babies, from parents who failed to raise em cause they're lazy....

Eminem
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Indy
New member
Username: indy

Post Number: 24
Registered: 7-2005
Posted on Saturday, March 01, 2008 - 8:31 pm:   Edit Post Delete Post View Post/Check IP Print Post

"Is it not the prediction for global warming that we have colder winters that are shorter in duration."


It is however not the prediction for global temperatures to trend cooler for many years which is the case now.
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zendor
Senior Member
Username: wizardofoz

Post Number: 502
Registered: 5-2003
Posted on Saturday, March 01, 2008 - 9:30 pm:   Edit Post Delete Post View Post/Check IP Print Post

fortwynt yes, we need good evidence and science. But an argument, which in summary is "science screwed up on eugenics therefore global warming is wrong" is not an argument at all.

With global warming IMO we just have to make our best guess -- because the price we will pay for doing nothing because we are not 100% sure is way too high.
"Unthinking respect for authority is the greatest enemy of truth." -Albert Einstein
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zendor
Senior Member
Username: wizardofoz

Post Number: 503
Registered: 5-2003
Posted on Saturday, March 01, 2008 - 9:31 pm:   Edit Post Delete Post View Post/Check IP Print Post

Indy -- Please cite the source for your statement about "trend cooler for many years"
"Unthinking respect for authority is the greatest enemy of truth." -Albert Einstein
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fortwynt
Senior Member
Username: fortwynt

Post Number: 4599
Registered: 12-2006
Posted on Saturday, March 01, 2008 - 9:40 pm:   Edit Post Delete Post View Post/Check IP Print Post

Definitely on mark zendor.
I came to save these new generations of babies, from parents who failed to raise em cause they're lazy....

Eminem
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Indy
New member
Username: indy

Post Number: 27
Registered: 7-2005
Posted on Saturday, March 01, 2008 - 9:51 pm:   Edit Post Delete Post View Post/Check IP Print Post

zendor... here is the info.

7 year trend.

http://attachments.climatepatrol.com/global-jan01-jan08_692288.jpg

6 year trend.

http://attachments.climatepatrol.com/global-jan02-jan08_824754.jpg

5 year trend.

http://attachments.climatepatrol.com/global-jan03-jan08_527131.jpg

Data obtained from the RSS set and compiled using MS Excel to graph and trend.

(Message edited by Indy on March 01, 2008)
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zendor
Senior Member
Username: wizardofoz

Post Number: 506
Registered: 5-2003
Posted on Sunday, March 02, 2008 - 3:01 am:   Edit Post Delete Post View Post/Check IP Print Post

Hi Indy.
If you look at your results, the slope of the line varies a lot between the three series. The apparent "trend" looks like it is due to a very large drop currently which skews you data in that direction.

I bet that if you stopped before the current cooling period (ignored 2007 - 2008) the slopes would change a lot. If you started at the peak in 1998 you would get a better result for a cooling trend.

The point is that the slope can be made go either way depending on when you start and finish the series.

Try a series from say 1980 or earlier to now and you will get the opposite result. I think the rule is for these trends, the longer the time line the better the results.

This picking the start and end dates effect can be used (I am not saying you have done this!) to "prove" just about anything you want to.
"Unthinking respect for authority is the greatest enemy of truth." -Albert Einstein
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Nandor
Advanced Member
Username: doug_irvine

Post Number: 322
Registered: 5-2006
Posted on Sunday, March 02, 2008 - 12:01 pm:   Edit Post Delete Post View Post/Check IP Print Post

Those who cannot remember the past are condemned to repeat it.

George Santayana
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Indy
New member
Username: indy

Post Number: 28
Registered: 7-2005
Posted on Sunday, March 02, 2008 - 2:31 pm:   Edit Post Delete Post View Post/Check IP Print Post

zendor.. I find it interesting that those who support the idea of global warming have no problem cherry picking a starting point that shows the results they want. Like picking the end of the PDO negative phase from that late 70's as the starting point instead of maybe the height of the warming that took place in the 40's or perhaps the height of the medieval warm period. The support of global warming was all about cherry picked data.

Call it what you will. It has been proven now that global temperatures are flat now for a decade and have been cooling for the last 7 years. I suspect 2008 will make the matter appear worse.
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zendor
Senior Member
Username: wizardofoz

Post Number: 509
Registered: 5-2003
Posted on Monday, March 03, 2008 - 3:24 am:   Edit Post Delete Post View Post/Check IP Print Post

Indy, what you say is true -- but both sides cherry pick the data that suits. It is easy to bag find one case of misuse of data and then throw away then dismiss the the rest who are more honest with their data.

The worst case (blatant cheating it was) I have seen was a documentary trying to debunk global warming, where they just showed the parts of the plots when the trend was going down

You are probable right about the last decade, there is some minor cooling from a high point in 1998 but the effect is small compared to the rise in the decades before 1998 and has been almost flat until the latest data came out.

If you look at the plot of the original data you derived your series from, spanned over 40 years or so if I recall, the overall trend is clear. If we had an accurate plot over the last 1000 years (or longer) we could know for sure if the current warming is more or less natural or not.
"Unthinking respect for authority is the greatest enemy of truth." -Albert Einstein
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sonorK
Senior Member
Username: sonork

Post Number: 521
Registered: 6-2002
Posted on Monday, March 03, 2008 - 10:28 am:   Edit Post Delete Post View Post/Check IP Print Post

I still say that if you can get a UN-approved computer climate model to accurately predict TODAY's climate based on historical data, I'll start actually looking at them with some form of respect (provided they can show they haven't been shaving puzzle pieces to make it fit).

Global climate is still too complicated for us monkeys to forecast out 4 days, let alone 100 years.
"In Iran, we do not have this phenomenon. I don't know who's told you that we have it." - Mahmoud Aquavelvajad
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Astro
Senior Member
Username: astroboy

Post Number: 3184
Registered: 1-2002
Posted on Monday, March 03, 2008 - 10:58 am:   Edit Post Delete Post View Post/Check IP Print Post

Proud to report that the glaciers are making a comeback in Colorado.

We just had another reminder yesterday and this morning about Sprintime in the Rockies.
"And the lion roams..."
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xretsim
Senior Member
Username: xretsim

Post Number: 639
Registered: 2-2001
Posted on Monday, March 03, 2008 - 4:13 pm:   Edit Post Delete Post View Post/Check IP Print Post

A common confusion between weather and climate arises when scientists are asked how they can predict climate 50 years from now when they cannot predict the weather a few weeks from now. The chaotic nature of weather makes it unpredictable beyond a few days. Projecting changes in climate (i.e., long-term average weather) due to changes in atmospheric composition or other factors is a very different and much more manageable issue. As an analogy, while it is impossible to predict the age at which any particular man will die, we can say with high confidence that the average age of death for men in industrialised countries is about 75.

http://teukureiza.wordpress.com/2007/12/15/what-is-the-relationship-between-clim ate-change-and-weather/
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zendor
Senior Member
Username: wizardofoz

Post Number: 510
Registered: 5-2003
Posted on Tuesday, March 04, 2008 - 6:12 am:   Edit Post Delete Post View Post/Check IP Print Post

Another example of the difference between climate and weather could be the rather obvious fact that we can predict that summer is going to be hotter than winter, but we are not sure if it will be hotter next week than now or not.
Climate predictions look at large scale factors, like the changes in earths orbit, and the wobble in the tilt of the axis. If we add in the effects of solar cycles and other factors (such as the effect of CO2 on climate) we may eventually be able to make accurate predictions.
"Unthinking respect for authority is the greatest enemy of truth." -Albert Einstein
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sonorK
Senior Member
Username: sonork

Post Number: 525
Registered: 6-2002
Posted on Tuesday, March 04, 2008 - 8:51 am:   Edit Post Delete Post View Post/Check IP Print Post

Yeah, yeah, yeah, I know the difference and it's a nice face saver. It is still a valid comparison.

Climate predictions look at large scale factors that we don't fully understand. We don't even know what all the factors are. It is the height of arrogance to think we can actually predict what will happen 100 years down the road. It's even more arrogant to think that man's contribution of less than half a percent of the CO2 is actually going to flood the world when we don't have a clue what all the factors are.

I'm sure that the bought and paid for 'climatologists' will be reshaping their conclusions to say they were right all along when their 'warming' doesn't pan out. I'm also sure they will find a way to blame humans for it.
"In Iran, we do not have this phenomenon. I don't know who's told you that we have it." - Mahmoud Aquavelvajad
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Jimmy
Senior Member
Username: chippyo

Post Number: 744
Registered: 8-2002
Posted on Tuesday, March 04, 2008 - 11:41 am:   Edit Post Delete Post View Post/Check IP Print Post

I'll hire a dowser and a rainmaker.


"We have the Information, now what do we do with it?"
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zendor
Senior Member
Username: wizardofoz

Post Number: 511
Registered: 5-2003
Posted on Tuesday, March 04, 2008 - 4:00 pm:   Edit Post Delete Post View Post/Check IP Print Post

What do you want us to do? just bury our collective heads in the sand and hope the problem goes away?

I think that ignoring a potential problem just because we don't fully understand it is rather stupid. It may be that the current climate changes are totally natural, and we cannot do a darn thing about them anyway. But maybe not. If we are partly to blame and we do nothing about it then our own demise as a species is our own fault.
"Unthinking respect for authority is the greatest enemy of truth." -Albert Einstein
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Jimmy
Senior Member
Username: chippyo

Post Number: 745
Registered: 8-2002
Posted on Tuesday, March 04, 2008 - 7:13 pm:   Edit Post Delete Post View Post/Check IP Print Post

Practical Advice from Quickwatch:

What concerned individuals can most usefully do is to watch the weather for changes that may affect them, and plan accordingly both in the short and medium terms. Short term planning would involve being prepared for heavy weather in areas where it is most likely to occur. Medium term planning might involve the creation of useful personal gardens, the putting by of food, and possibly a move south after two or three successive failed summers, should that occur. Long term planning is not a meaningful option at this time.

"Everybody talkin' about the weather & no one doing a damn thing about it." -Grandpa Jimmy


"We have the Information, now what do we do with it?"
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xretsim
Senior Member
Username: xretsim

Post Number: 640
Registered: 2-2001
Posted on Wednesday, March 05, 2008 - 8:44 am:   Edit Post Delete Post View Post/Check IP Print Post

"The most expensive thing we can do is nothing."

Global-warming planning a reality for coastal states
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sonorK
Senior Member
Username: sonork

Post Number: 528
Registered: 6-2002
Posted on Wednesday, March 05, 2008 - 1:14 pm:   Edit Post Delete Post View Post/Check IP Print Post

zendor,
I didn't say anything about not doing anything. The answer is simple - study it to death without making stupid policy based on half-baked ideas.

"The most expensive thing we can do is nothing."

Pretty catchy quote. You got any for when you urinate cash down the drain based on unproven science? My sarcasm neuron is a bit fried already today and I can't come up with a pithy quote myself.

An analogy and riddle for the GW Club: If I give $100 to a hooker and she doesn't perform as expected and at the same time I needed that $100 to put gas in my car, who just screwed who and who is going to put gas in my car?

Just kinda kick that around in your brain pan in relation to the US economy, infrastructure, etc, etc, etc.
"In Iran, we do not have this phenomenon. I don't know who's told you that we have it." - Mahmoud Aquavelvajad
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xretsim
Senior Member
Username: xretsim

Post Number: 643
Registered: 2-2001
Posted on Wednesday, March 05, 2008 - 3:43 pm:   Edit Post Delete Post View Post/Check IP Print Post

West Antarctic Glaciers Melting At 20 Times Former Rate, Rock Analysis Shows

"Pine Island Glacier has 'thinned' by around 4 centimetres per year over the past 5,000 years, while Smith and Pope Glaciers thinned by just over 2 cm per year during the past 14,500 years. These rates are more than 20 times slower than recent changes: satellite, airborne and ground based observations made since the 1990s show that Pine Island Glacier has thinned by around 1.6 metres per year in recent years."
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Chr15t05
Senior Member
Username: chr15t05

Post Number: 1032
Registered: 8-2004
Posted on Wednesday, March 05, 2008 - 5:10 pm:   Edit Post Delete Post View Post/Check IP Print Post

The Pine Island Glacier is located in a volcanically active region, and last I checked its acceleration cannot be attributed to changes in air temperature. (Source: BBC - "The reason does not seem to be warming in the surrounding air".) It has been hypothesised that increased geothermal venting is speeding up its flow to the ocean, at a location where deep ocean currents channel warm water onto the continental shelf, further lubricating the flow.

Chris
"There are two ways to be fooled. One is to believe what isn't true; the other is to refuse to believe what is true."
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xretsim
Senior Member
Username: xretsim

Post Number: 645
Registered: 2-2001
Posted on Wednesday, March 05, 2008 - 5:53 pm:   Edit Post Delete Post View Post/Check IP Print Post

interesting:

Americans Believe Global Warming Is Real, Want Action, But Not As A Priority
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zendor
Senior Member
Username: wizardofoz

Post Number: 512
Registered: 5-2003
Posted on Thursday, March 06, 2008 - 4:20 am:   Edit Post Delete Post View Post/Check IP Print Post

Thanks for the quote snorK, I quite like it. We have grown to expect pithy sarcastic comments from you, nice to see you are outsourcing them

I would like to present you with a scenario – You go outside one morning and there is a strange smell in the air, and you eyes start to water. You have never smelt this before and have no idea what it is. It might be dangerous or it might be harmless. Do you
1) Wait for a detailed chemical analysis of the substance before doing anything.
2) Warn the neighbors and get in the car and take yourself and family out of harms way. Dial 911 etc

So you act without full knowledge of your situation.

I think GW is like this. I have said it before and I will say it again -- We don't know for sure what part of global warming we have created -- but until we are 100% sure one way or the other we should make an effort to clean up our act. To not do something is like option #1 above

(Message edited by wizardofoz on March 06, 2008)
"Unthinking respect for authority is the greatest enemy of truth." -Albert Einstein
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zendor
Senior Member
Username: wizardofoz

Post Number: 513
Registered: 5-2003
Posted on Thursday, March 06, 2008 - 4:29 am:   Edit Post Delete Post View Post/Check IP Print Post

Just on glaciers -- I have a wikipedia link here that maps the growth or decline since 1970 Glacier Mass looks like most of them are shrinking, though a few are expanding.
"Unthinking respect for authority is the greatest enemy of truth." -Albert Einstein
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sonorK
Senior Member
Username: sonork

Post Number: 531
Registered: 6-2002
Posted on Thursday, March 06, 2008 - 9:33 am:   Edit Post Delete Post View Post/Check IP Print Post

zendor,
What quote? The only "quote" was one I repeated from xretsim. As for pithy sarcasm, it is a true artform and I truly appreciate it even when it's aimed at me. It is double appreciated if the artist can take a self-depricating shot at themselves at the same time.

As for your example, if you extrapolate that out, getting out of the way would be a good decision IF the oceans are rising and lands are being flooded.

What you get instead, in the real world, is a bunch of people complaining about apparent changes that they have no clue as to how they were caused.

All they know is that appeared to get warmer. Then they become certain that humans are the cause and we must all suffer intolerable conditions to make it right. Meanwhile, the 1/3 of the world's population that is India and China couldn't care less.

Anyway, if Australia is any harbinger for our summer, I should be paying less to AC my house.

Sydney's Coolest Summer in 50 Years Leaves Empty Cafes, Gloom

"....No day topped 31 degrees celsius (88 degrees fahrenheit) for the first time since 1956. Average daily sunshine totaled 6.7 hours, an hour less than normal and the lowest since 1991-92. The average maximum temperature was 25.2, the coolest since 1996-97.
``Suddenly we get one cool, wet summer and everyone's complaining,'' said De Salis...."
"In Iran, we do not have this phenomenon. I don't know who's told you that we have it." - Mahmoud Aquavelvajad
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sonorK
Senior Member
Username: sonork

Post Number: 534
Registered: 6-2002
Posted on Thursday, March 06, 2008 - 3:31 pm:   Edit Post Delete Post View Post/Check IP Print Post

And the monkeys thrown another wrench into the works....

Oceans to fall, not rise, over millions of years

While that assuredly won't be human driven, it will be interesting to see what effect THAT has on our climate....
"In Iran, we do not have this phenomenon. I don't know who's told you that we have it." - Mahmoud Aquavelvajad
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zendor
Senior Member
Username: wizardofoz

Post Number: 514
Registered: 5-2003
Posted on Friday, March 07, 2008 - 5:55 am:   Edit Post Delete Post View Post/Check IP Print Post

Whilst we are talking about a colder climate in a few million years, in the longer term the outlook is rather bleak. Sun Will Vaporize Earth

New calculations by University of Sussex astronomers predict that the Earth will be swallowed up by the Sun in about 7.6 billion years unless the Earth’s orbit can be altered.

Now thats a long range forecast !!

Thanks for the local weather report. Nice to see you have an interest in the weather around the globe. :-)
"Unthinking respect for authority is the greatest enemy of truth." -Albert Einstein
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fortwynt
Senior Member
Username: fortwynt

Post Number: 4739
Registered: 12-2006
Posted on Friday, March 07, 2008 - 5:59 am:   Edit Post Delete Post View Post/Check IP Print Post

never ceases to amaze me how day to day trends can be so wildly off the mark, yet they expect me to believe they can make predictions for a time 7 billion years in the future...hilarious i tells ya.
I came to save these new generations of babies, from parents who failed to raise em cause they're lazy....

Eminem
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xretsim
Senior Member
Username: xretsim

Post Number: 648
Registered: 2-2001
Posted on Friday, March 07, 2008 - 7:17 am:   Edit Post Delete Post View Post/Check IP Print Post

it's far easier to predict trends than it is to predict the various fluctuations and deviations from the trend in any statistical exercise.

what's so hard to believe about that?
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zendor
Senior Member
Username: wizardofoz

Post Number: 515
Registered: 5-2003
Posted on Friday, March 07, 2008 - 8:01 am:   Edit Post Delete Post View Post/Check IP Print Post

Actually the prediction of the next ice age or the earth getting fried in 7 billion years time are rather easy to make.

We know the ice age cycles and they are rather predictable in the long term. The sun is getting slowly hotter (it is about 25% hotter now than when it first formed) and will continue to do so until the seas boil away. Read any book on stellar evolution, or just google it.

The point about the difference between weather and climate predictions (with examples) was made earlier in this thread.

I would like to point out another example of long term weather predictions which is useful and reasonably accurate, based on only a few measurements.

Where I live, many farmers, who are for the most part sensible down to earth people (as they are everywhere) rely on the Southern Oscillation Index to predict how much rain to expect in the next growing season and hence the best crop to plant. They do this because it gives them better predictions than guesses. It works. SOI use in the Northern Grainbelt

(Message edited by wizardofoz on March 07, 2008)
"Unthinking respect for authority is the greatest enemy of truth." -Albert Einstein
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Chr15t05
Senior Member
Username: chr15t05

Post Number: 1035
Registered: 8-2004
Posted on Friday, March 07, 2008 - 6:55 pm:   Edit Post Delete Post View Post/Check IP Print Post

It's true that the regularity of long term cycles make them far more predictable than short term fluctuations. However, I don't believe this can be applied to current Global Climate Models, which rely on guestimates of climate functionality and forcing in order to extrapolate a presupposed outcome.

My main concern with GCMs, and consequently the AGW hypothesis in general, is that empirical evidence for the supposed mechanism for warming, namely an intense H2O feedback in the troposphere, remains elusive and often contradictory depending on the study. Without this mechanism GCM projections contain a fundamental flaw essentially rendering them useless.

My other concern is that GCMs, as opposed to other long term forecasts, are not based on predictable cycles but are in fact attempting to project something new. Thus, comparing GCM projections to the reliability if other longer-term predictions is akin to apples and oranges, IMO.

Chris

(Message edited by Chr15t05 on March 07, 2008)
"There are two ways to be fooled. One is to believe what isn't true; the other is to refuse to believe what is true."
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sonorK
Senior Member
Username: sonork

Post Number: 537
Registered: 6-2002
Posted on Saturday, March 08, 2008 - 10:54 am:   Edit Post Delete Post View Post/Check IP Print Post

Causes of climate change varied

Gordon Jaremko, edmontonjournal.com
Published: Thursday, March 06
EDMONTON - Only about one in three Alberta earth scientists and engineers believe the culprit behind climate change has been identified, a new poll reported today.

The expert jury is divided, with 26 per cent attributing global warming to human activity like burning fossil fuels and 27 per cent blaming other causes such as volcanoes, sunspots, earth crust movements and natural evolution of the planet.

A 99-per-cent majority believes the climate is changing. But 45 per cent blame both human and natural influences, and 68 per cent disagree with the popular statement that "the debate on the scientific causes of recent climate change is settled."

The divisions showed up in a canvass of more than 51,000 specialists licensed to practice the highly educated occupations by the Association of Professional Engineers, Geologists and Geophysicists of Alberta.

"We're not surprised at all," APEGGA executive director Neil Windsor said today. "There is no clear consensus of scientists that we know of."...........
"In Iran, we do not have this phenomenon. I don't know who's told you that we have it." - Mahmoud Aquavelvajad
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xretsim
Senior Member
Username: xretsim

Post Number: 649
Registered: 2-2001
Posted on Sunday, March 09, 2008 - 5:51 am:   Edit Post Delete Post View Post/Check IP Print Post

this may have something to do with the kyoto protocol issue in canada. i'd like to see that poll extend to europe and the rest of the world, and not just alberta, canada.

let's not forget that this has become as much a political issue as a scientific one.

European unity, leadership on climate change

Climate Change and Europe
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Chr15t05
Senior Member
Username: chr15t05

Post Number: 1036
Registered: 8-2004
Posted on Sunday, March 09, 2008 - 6:23 am:   Edit Post Delete Post View Post/Check IP Print Post


quote:

let's not forget that this has become as much a political issue as a scientific one.


Yes, this is a BIG part of the problem, IMO.

Chris
"There are two ways to be fooled. One is to believe what isn't true; the other is to refuse to believe what is true."
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sonorK
Senior Member
Username: sonork

Post Number: 539
Registered: 6-2002
Posted on Monday, March 10, 2008 - 8:38 am:   Edit Post Delete Post View Post/Check IP Print Post

"i'd like to see that poll extend to europe and the rest of the world, and not just alberta, canada."

Granted. As long as they keep the politicians and soccer moms out of the poll and keep it to the scientists.
"In Iran, we do not have this phenomenon. I don't know who's told you that we have it." - Mahmoud Aquavelvajad
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Jimmy
Senior Member
Username: chippyo

Post Number: 748
Registered: 8-2002
Posted on Monday, March 10, 2008 - 2:07 pm:   Edit Post Delete Post View Post/Check IP Print Post

Like a lot of science,there is a component of art. Many mysteries abound even in modern medicine as with teh natural sciences, but with enough freedom & persistence all will be reveled.

Perhaps the change is a combination, a merging of greater trends. An excerbation, of what is already in place? Either way, when a party uses the GCC to advance a dogma or a President attempts to gag NASA scientists- no good can come from this. Isn't that why many great scienctists came to this country in the first part of the last century?

What ever is the cause best to err on theh side of it happening and be aware of it.

Now back to our vicious winter snow dumping!


"We have the Information, now what do we do with it?"
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sonorK
Senior Member
Username: sonork

Post Number: 542
Registered: 6-2002
Posted on Tuesday, March 11, 2008 - 9:30 am:   Edit Post Delete Post View Post/Check IP Print Post

Err on the side of it happening.... yeah Jimmy, I can see that. Pretty much agree with it. Nice philosophical riff, btw.

But..... what exactly is happening that we should err one way or the other. The global avg temp allegedly went up for a decade or two. Now it's allegedly been dropping for a couple years.

Got hammered on the snow deal. Have I mentioned lately that I absolutely love my Subaru Baja???
"The Beauty of All Wheel Drive".
"In Iran, we do not have this phenomenon. I don't know who's told you that we have it." - Mahmoud Aquavelvajad
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shedmyskin
Senior Member
Username: shedmyskin

Post Number: 713
Registered: 1-2007
Posted on Tuesday, March 11, 2008 - 12:26 pm:   Edit Post Delete Post View Post/Check IP Print Post

http://www.nationalpost.com/opinion/story.html?id=165020

letter of warning sent to UN regarding climate change policies by multiple experts.
If you can be told what you can see or read....then it follows that you can be told what to say or think.
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Jimmy
Senior Member
Username: chippyo

Post Number: 753
Registered: 8-2002
Posted on Wednesday, March 12, 2008 - 12:35 am:   Edit Post Delete Post View Post/Check IP Print Post

My new car adjustment:

http://www.preignitioncc.com/nw/index.htm

check it out mane!!!


"We have the Information, now what do we do with it?"
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Jimmy
Senior Member
Username: chippyo

Post Number: 754
Registered: 8-2002
Posted on Wednesday, March 12, 2008 - 12:38 am:   Edit Post Delete Post View Post/Check IP Print Post

sonork:

I got an 2001 Suburu outback ...that AWD system is sucking all my gas mileage ..but it's fun to hug an exit ramp at a high rate of speed & watch a top heavy SUV tilt & adjust trying to hang with me.


"We have the Information, now what do we do with it?"
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sonorK
Senior Member
Username: sonork

Post Number: 544
Registered: 6-2002
Posted on Wednesday, March 12, 2008 - 9:06 am:   Edit Post Delete Post View Post/Check IP Print Post

I saw the PICC in my Pop Sci magazine. I'll be looking at it more down the road - when I get time.

Yeah, I love the way it hugs the road.... 27 mpg isn't bad. It's not the 35 I got on my last car though.
"In Iran, we do not have this phenomenon. I don't know who's told you that we have it." - Mahmoud Aquavelvajad
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shedmyskin
Senior Member
Username: shedmyskin

Post Number: 714
Registered: 1-2007
Posted on Wednesday, March 12, 2008 - 9:50 am:   Edit Post Delete Post View Post/Check IP Print Post

Is my 97 Camaro RS an eco terrorist? I hug those off ramps too, but it has more to do with my suspension. = P

Is this wrong:
From what I've read/heard during say like the Jurasic period carbon levels were 11 times higher than today. Thats why there were giant animals and plants. Dragon flies the size of eagles. Because carbon is a life accelerator. Doesn't the UN say at the max humans are responsible for 6% of carbon output, but most likely 3%? Is this 11 times the levels of years gone by? I'm supposed to believe its big money behind the skeptics, yet there are billboards in NYC that cost 700,000 dollars a month to rent advertising that global warming is becuase of humans and we must stop it. What money is behind what now?
If you can be told what you can see or read....then it follows that you can be told what to say or think.
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Chr15t05
Senior Member
Username: chr15t05

Post Number: 1040
Registered: 8-2004
Posted on Wednesday, March 12, 2008 - 6:23 pm:   Edit Post Delete Post View Post/Check IP Print Post

There are hundreds of millions of dollars being spent annually by both sides of the AGW debate on research, advertising, promotion and disinformation... though not necessarily in that order.

Chris
"There are two ways to be fooled. One is to believe what isn't true; the other is to refuse to believe what is true."
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zendor
Senior Member
Username: wizardofoz

Post Number: 517
Registered: 5-2003
Posted on Thursday, March 13, 2008 - 4:49 am:   Edit Post Delete Post View Post/Check IP Print Post

A fascinating topic -- why were the Jurassic critters so big?
The answer seems to be that the atmosphere was about twice as dense as now (28 psi, it is about 14 psi now). This means that there was much more available oxygen for animals and plants, plants also had much more CO2 than now. Carbon is a "life accelerator" for plants but not directly for animals. see Jurassic

How does this relate to the AGW debate ? -- I don't think anyone is saying that humans are the only cause of CO2 in the atmosphere or that just because the Jurassic was like a tropical jungle on steroids does not mean that it would be a nice place to live -- I don't think we would have been able to breathe the Jurassic air and live.

Remember that if we were to travel back in time to various epochs in the past history of our planet, there is a very good chance we would die very quickly as either temperature or atmospheric conditions would not be suitable for us. We dick with the climate at our own peril.
"Unthinking respect for authority is the greatest enemy of truth." -Albert Einstein
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Chr15t05
Senior Member
Username: chr15t05

Post Number: 1041
Registered: 8-2004
Posted on Thursday, March 13, 2008 - 5:39 am:   Edit Post Delete Post View Post/Check IP Print Post


quote:

I don't think we would have been able to breathe the Jurassic air and live


Quite right. I think I read somewhere that if we travelled back to the Jurassic we would only last a handful of breaths before falling unconscious. In fact, as I understand it, the majority of this planet's history has been entirely inhospitable to present human life.

Chris
"There are two ways to be fooled. One is to believe what isn't true; the other is to refuse to believe what is true."
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Whitley Strieber
Moderator
Username: strieber

Post Number: 281
Registered: 2-2001
Posted on Friday, March 14, 2008 - 3:41 am:   Edit Post Delete Post View Post/Check IP Print Post

The new Quickwatch on Unknowncountry addresses this issue. You might find it of interest. http://www.unknowncountry.com/edge/quickwatch.
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sonorK
Senior Member
Username: sonork

Post Number: 548
Registered: 6-2002
Posted on Friday, March 14, 2008 - 10:48 am:   Edit Post Delete Post View Post/Check IP Print Post

That is interesting. But....haven't a lot of the GW crowd been saying solar activity has no real effect on our climate and the alleged warming for the last few years?

Here's a nice review of why you can't trust anything put out by the IPCC -

Climate panel on the hot seat

...."These problems led Mr. Wegman's team to conclude that the idea that the planet is experiencing unprecedented global warming "cannot be supported."....."

And some more on this soon-to-end-but-maybe-not-winter....

NOAA: Coolest Winter Since 2001 for U.S., Globe

If you check out one of the maps that show the increased levels of precip - there seems to be a general correlation with the extent of our last glaciation....
"In Iran, we do not have this phenomenon. I don't know who's told you that we have it." - Mahmoud Aquavelvajad
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Granny
Senior Member
Username: phar9

Post Number: 1123
Registered: 5-2004
Posted on Friday, March 14, 2008 - 3:18 pm:   Edit Post Delete Post View Post/Check IP Print Post

sonorK ...

Love your sig line. I remember it well ... at Columbia, was it? And the outburst of laughter that followed.

Gran :-)
Signing up for "War Kittens"
Think Or Be Eaten ...
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Chr15t05
Senior Member
Username: chr15t05

Post Number: 1042
Registered: 8-2004
Posted on Friday, March 14, 2008 - 7:39 pm:   Edit Post Delete Post View Post/Check IP Print Post

You know, as tantalizing as I find the solar/sunspot hypothesis for the recent cooling, I still think it's a little premature to make such a conclusion. For one thing, it has come sooner than we would expect for a solar driven change; there's normally a lag of several years minimum.

While I don't discount the notion that we may be witnessing a prelude of things to come, I do think a lot will depend on how long La Niña remains present in the short term, and whether predictions of the Pacific decadal oscillation moving into its negative, or "cool" phase (not seen since the 1970s) hold true in the long term. (This is what average global temperatures looked like the last time the PDO went negative, as compared to the positive phase of the 1930s and 40s.)

It could be that all of the above are being driven by changes in solar intensity and magnetism, but so far the evidence is not conclusive one way or the other, IMO. I still think the real climate test will be what happens in the years following the current solar maximum (assuming it ever gets going that is!)

Chris
"There are two ways to be fooled. One is to believe what isn't true; the other is to refuse to believe what is true."
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Chr15t05
Senior Member
Username: chr15t05

Post Number: 1043
Registered: 8-2004
Posted on Saturday, March 15, 2008 - 2:17 am:   Edit Post Delete Post View Post/Check IP Print Post

Looks like cycle 24 might just have some kick afterall. The following is an extract from the ARRL:

Future Predictions

A new forecast is out regarding progress between Solar Cycles 23 and 24. You may recall that the committee of scientists who make a group forecast of future sunspot activity for the NOAA Space Weather Prediction Center were unable to reach a consensus last year, the group evenly split between those who think the next solar cycle will be weak and those that see a stronger solar cycle.

I will refer to the weak cycle predictors as pessimists and strong cycle forecasters as optimists. While these characterizations may not be appropriate for scientists who presumably have no preference either way, as far as Amateur Radio operators are concerned, the high cycle prediction is no doubt the optimistic choice.

The previous prediction appeared in the January 2, 2008, issue 1687 of the Preliminary Report and Forecast. Note on page 8 in the table of predicted smoothed sunspot numbers that the optimistic faction predicts a sunspot minimum of 4 centered around December 2007-April 2008. The pessimistic projection is for a smoothed sunspot number minimum of 3 from January-April 2008.

Now compare this with the prediction ten weeks later on page 9 of issue 1697 from this week. See how the pessimists are now calling for a much longer and lower solar minimum lasting over a year, from November 2007-December 2008. But according to the optimists, the solar minimum has already passed, with a smoothed sunspot number of 6 in August and September 2007 (this generally agrees with our 3-month averages of daily numbers, presented in last week's bulletin.)

Note there is no split in the value for August 2007. This is because 6 is the known smoothed sunspot number for that month, not a prediction. A year of daily sunspot numbers is required to calculate the smoothed value, and all of the values from mid-February 2007 through mid-February 2008 (a whole year with August in the middle) are known. In fact, enough sunspot data will be known this weekend to fix the smoothed sunspot number for September of last year.

Now look at even better news for sunspot fans. See how the predictions for the peak of the next solar cycle have shifted and both factions see Cycle 24 peaking much higher than they did 10 weeks earlier.

In issue 1687, pessimists predicted a peak between May and October 2012 of only 90, but now in issue 1697, we see a much higher and earlier peak at 124 from August-December 2011, only three and a half years from now. The optimists and pessimists now agree on the timing of the peak, and optimists have upped their peak value prediction from 140 to 154 (access all recent weekly issues here.)

Of course, with only 23 cycles of data to examine, sunspot cycle prediction is still a young science. But new tools unavailable in past decades no doubt have advanced the art.

"There are two ways to be fooled. One is to believe what isn't true; the other is to refuse to believe what is true."